Decarbonizing Mobility in Rapidly Motorizing Contexts: Structural Constraints and Incremental Pathways for Low-Carbon Transport in Cameroon

Sub-Saharan Africa is entering accelerated motorization, with urban populations projected to double by 2050, making transport a pivotal yet understudied climate mitigation sector. Cameroon exemplifies the challenges: urbanization exceeding 3.5% annually, a fleet of imported second-hand vehicles averaging over 15 years old, and informal paratransit handling 70–80% of urban motorized trips. Despite the 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) emissions reduction pledges, transport implementation lags due to governance silos and political-economic lock-ins. Employing socio-technical transitions theory and qualitative policy analysis, triangulating NDCs, development strategies, urban mobility plans, and international reports, this study identifies three barriers: (i) used vehicle import politics, where duties and broker networks sustain carbon-intensive fleets; (ii) fragmentation between environment and transport/urban ministries, yielding road-biased investments; and (iii) colonial-rooted urban forms favouring vehicle dependence. The NDC overlooks paratransit's regime centrality. Rejecting capital-heavy leapfrogging, the article advances incremental decarbonisation for lowincome contexts: paratransit cooperatives enabling fleet renewal; landuse integration shortening trips; phased import/scrappage reforms; electric two-wheelers for high-use segments. A National Transport Authority and international finance would operationalize this. Cameroon's case illuminates pathways for Global South cities, where aligning climate policy with informal mobility realities is essential.

Transport decarbonisation, informal paratransit, socio-technical transitions, second-hand vehicles

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