The Effects of Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria: A Review

The Effects of Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria: A Review

Kalu Ndubuisi Emegha PhD, Patrick Chinedu Bosah PhD, Blessing Chugo Idigo, Chibueze Lawrence Ofobuike, PhD^,

Department of Political Science, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Igbariam, Anambra State, Nigeria

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51244/IJRSI.2025.12040076

Received: 24 March 2025; Accepted: 07 April 2025; Published: 12 May 2025

ABSTRACT

This review study explored the complex relationship between climate change and food security in Nigeria, a country facing increasing vulnerabilities due to environmental changes. Climate change significantly threatens agricultural productivity, which is critical for food security in Nigeria, particularly given the reliance of a large portion of the population on subsistence farming. The study set-out to analyse the impacts of climate change on food production, and assess the adaptive capacity of agricultural stakeholders. The study is grounded in the human security framework, which emphasizes the importance of diverse livelihood strategies and resilience in the face of environmental challenges. The study adopted causal research design and depended on existing literature, reports, and data on climate change impacts and food security in Nigeria. Findings revealed that climate change has led to reduced crop yields, increased food prices, and heightened food insecurity, particularly among vulnerable populations. Extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, have disrupted agricultural cycles and diminished the adaptive capacity of farmers. The study concludes that without significant interventions, the ongoing effects of climate change will exacerbate food insecurity in Nigeria. The study recommended that there is need for enhanced climate-resilient agricultural practices through education and training; strengthen policy frameworks that integrate climate adaptation into food security strategies.

Keywords: Climate Change, Food Security, Human Security; Governance; and Policy.

INTRODUCTION

The phenomenon of climate-change the world over, is adjudged a threat to humans, fauna and flora with increased flooding, extreme heat, increased food and water scarcity, more disease, and economic loss. Human migration and conflict can also be a result. The World Health Organization (WHO) (2024), calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21^st century. Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without action to limit warming. Adapting to climate change through efforts like flood control measures or drought-resistant crops partially reduces climate change risks, although some limits to adaptation have already been reached. Poorer communities are responsible for a small share of global emissions, yet have the least ability to adapt and are most vulnerable to climate change (Michon, 2023).

According to World Health Organisation (WHO) (2024), the phenomenon of climate change is impacting human lives and health in a variety of ways. It threatens the essential ingredients of good health – clean air, safe drinking water, nutritious food supply and safe shelter and has the potential to undermine decades of progress in global health. Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress alone. The direct damage costs to health are estimated to be between US$ 2–4 billion per year by 2030. Areas with weak health infrastructure, mostly in developing countries – will be the least able to cope without assistance to prepare and respond (WHO, 2024).

In Nigeria, Climate change has emerged as a significant threat to food security, in a nation-state heavily reliant on agriculture for its economy and food supply. The country, characterized by its diverse ecosystems ranging from arid regions in the north to lush vegetation in the south, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events (Nwafor, 2020).

Thus, Nigeria’s climate is influenced by its geographical location and topography, leading to distinct wet and dry seasons (Emegha, 2023). Viewed in this way, climate change has exacerbated variability in these patterns, resulting in prolonged droughts in some regions and flooding in others (Odekunle, Olaniyan, & Akinola, 2021). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that Nigeria will experience an increase in average temperatures by 1.5 to 3°C by the end of the 21st century, significantly affecting agricultural productivity (IPCC, 2021).

The agricultural sector, which employs over 70% of Nigeria’s workforce and accounts for about 24% of the GDP, is predominantly rain-fed (World Bank, 2020). As a result, any disruption in rainfall patterns directly impacts crop yields and food production. For instance, the northern regions, which are already arid, face greater challenges with desertification and reduced arable land (Adelekan, 2021).

Food insecurity in Nigeria is a pressing issue, exacerbated by climate change. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2021), approximately 33% of the population is food insecure, facing varying degrees of hunger and malnutrition. This crisis is driven by several factors, including economic instability, conflicts (Emegha, 2022), and climate-related challenges. The impacts of climate change on agriculture have led to reduced crop yields, increased food prices, and heightened competition for limited resources. For example, the rise in temperatures has adversely affected staple crops such as maize, rice, and cassava (Ogunniyi, Adetunji, & Alabi, 2020). Additionally, flooding and erosion have further compromised agricultural land, leading to significant post-harvest losses (Nwafor, 2020).

Conceptual Delineations

Climate Change

The United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change, (UNFCCC, 2020) defined climate change as ‘A change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, and in addition to natural climate variability, observed over comparable period of time.’ While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC) (2024), defined it as any change in climate over time whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

Greenhouse gas emissions that result from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels are major contributors to both climate change and air pollution. Many policies and individual measures, such as transport, food and energy use choices, have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and produce major health co-benefits, particularly by abating air pollution. The phase out of polluting energy systems, for example, or the promotion of public transportation and active movement, could both lower carbon emissions and cut the burden of household and ambient air pollution, which cause 7 million premature deaths per year (Seip, Gron, & Wong, 2023). From the forgoing, it is pertinent to note that poorer communities or states are responsible for a small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet have the least ability to adapt and are most vulnerable to the impact of climate change (Michon, 2023; Offor, Odoh, and Iwuozor, 2023).

The most general concept of climate change therefore, is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over a long period of time, regardless of the cause. Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades do not represent climate change (Tietjen, 2022). The term is, sometimes, used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity, as opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of the earth’s natural processes. In this respect, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming (Tietjen, 2022; Offor, Odoh, and Iwuozor, 2023). However, scientifically, global warming refers to surface temperature increases while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas levels will affect (Tietjen, 2022).

Causes of Climate Change

Climate change is primarily driven by a combination of natural processes and human activities that increase the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the earth’s atmosphere. The followings are the main causes of climate change:

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Human Activities: The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas for energy and transportation is the largest source of GHG emissions. This process releases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) into the atmosphere, contributing significantly to global warming (IPCC, 2021).

Carbon Dioxide (CO2): Primarily emitted through the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation, and various industrial processes (Le Quéré, Jackson, Jones, Smith, & Andrew 2020).

Methane (CH4): Released during the production and transport of coal, oil, and natural gas, as well as from livestock and other agricultural practices (EPA, 2020).

Nitrous Oxide (N2O): Emitted from agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste (EPA, 2020).

Deforestation

Deforestation involves the large-scale removal of forests, which act as carbon sinks by absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. When trees are cut down for agriculture, urban development, or logging, the stored carbon is released back into the atmosphere, exacerbating climate change (Houghton, 2020).

Industrial Processes

Certain industrial activities contribute directly to climate change through the release of GHGs. For example, cement production is a significant source of CO2 emissions, and chemical manufacturing can release other potent greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2021).

Agriculture

Agricultural practices contribute to climate change through emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. Livestock production generates methane during digestion, while the use of synthetic fertilizers in crop production results in nitrous oxide emissions (Smith, Chirinda, & Thelwell, 2021).

Land Use Changes

Changes in land use, including urbanization and the conversion of natural landscapes to agricultural land, alter the Earth’s surface properties, affecting heat absorption and emissions of GHGs. These changes can disrupt local climates and contribute to global warming (Foley, Ramankutty, Brauman, Cassidy, Gerber, Johnston, & Zaks, 2020).

Natural Factors

While human activities are the primary drivers of recent climate change, natural factors such as volcanic eruptions and variations in solar radiation can also influence earth’s climate. However, the impact of these natural factors is relatively small compared to human-induced changes (IPCC, 2021). Yet human beings are still compounding the issues that impact negatively on the climate.

Food Security vs Food Insecurity: Generally, food is one of the basic necessities of life. It is needed for strength, human growth and development. Every country in the world desires to feed its population and to export food to other nations. Food production is one of the outcomes of agricultural activities. If food is to be abundant for local consumption and export, its production must be developed (Archibong, 2020). The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as existing when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life. Commonly, the concept of food security is defined as including both physical and economic access to food that meets people’s dietary needs as well as their food preferences (Igbokwe-Ibeto, 2019).

According to Igbokwe-Ibeto (2019), food security includes the followings:

The ready availability of nutritionally adequate and safe foods, and

An assured ability to acquire acceptable foods in socially acceptable ways (i.e. without resorting to emergency food supplies, scavenging, stealing, or coping strategies).

Frem the forgoing, food security is built on three pillars:

Food availability: sufficient quantities of food available on a consistent basis.

Food access: having sufficient resources to obtain appropriate foods for a nutritious diet.

Food use: appropriate use based on knowledge of basic nutrition and care, as well as adequate water and sanitation.

Theoretical Framework and Methodology

The study adopted Human Security Framework. The concept and/or theory of human security emerged in the early 1990s, primarily through the work of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The 1994 Human Development Report, authored by Mahbub ul Haq, is often credited with popularizing the term. This report shifted the focus from traditional notions of security, which emphasized military threats and state sovereignty, to a broader understanding that includes economic, food, health, and environmental security as essential components of human well-being (UNDP, 2024).

The key proponents of the human security framework include: Mahbub ul Haq: As the architect of the concept, he emphasized the importance of human development and security. Kofi Annan: The former UN Secretary-General advocated for a human-centred approach to security during his tenure, highlighting the need to address the root causes of insecurity (Annan, 2000).

Conceptually, human security is defined as a paradigm that prioritizes the protection and empowerment of individuals rather than states. It encompasses a wide range of threats to human well-being, including economic instability, food insecurity, health crises, environmental degradation, and political oppression. The framework emphasizes that security should be understood in terms of the safety and dignity of individuals and communities (Wikipedia, 2024).

Assumptions or Propositions of the Theory

The human security framework is based on several key assumptions:

Interconnectedness: Human security recognizes that various forms of insecurity are interconnected. For example, food insecurity can lead to health problems, which in turn can affect economic stability (Haq, 1994).

People-Centred Approach: The framework emphasizes the importance of addressing the needs and rights of individuals and communities rather than focusing solely on state security.

Prevention and Empowerment: Human security advocates for proactive measures to prevent insecurity and empower individuals and communities to enhance their resilience against various threats (Annan, 2000).

Inclusivity: The approach calls for the inclusion of marginalized and vulnerable populations in discussions and decision-making processes related to security and development.

Application of the Theory to the Study

The human security framework is particularly relevant in the context of climate change and food security in Nigeria. As climate change exacerbates environmental challenges, it poses significant threats to agricultural productivity and food availability, which directly impacts the livelihoods of millions of Nigerians.

Vulnerability Assessment: The framework encourages the assessment of vulnerabilities faced by different communities, particularly marginalized groups such as smallholder farmers, who are often the most affected by climate variability and food insecurity (Ani et al., 2023).

Policy Development: By applying a human security lens, policymakers can develop comprehensive strategies that address the root causes of food insecurity, such as poverty, lack of access to resources, and inadequate infrastructure. This approach promotes sustainable agricultural practices and climate adaptation measures that empower local communities (Ani et al., 2023).

Community Engagement: The human security framework emphasizes the importance of involving local communities in decision-making processes related to climate adaptation and food security. This participatory approach ensures that the needs and perspectives of vulnerable populations are considered, leading to more effective and equitable solutions.

Holistic Solutions: Addressing food insecurity through the human security framework requires a multi-faceted approach that considers economic, social, and environmental factors. This includes improving access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities, which are essential for building resilience against climate change impacts (Haq, 2024).

Thus, human security framework provides a valuable perspective for understanding and addressing the complex interplay between climate change and food insecurity in Nigeria. By focusing on the well-being of individuals and communities, this approach can inform policies and actions that enhance resilience and promote sustainable development.

METHODOLOGY

The study adopted causal research design, also known as explanatory research. This kind study design is conducted in order to identify the nature of cause-and-effect relationships. The area of study is Nigeria, otherwise called the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Nigeria is a country in West-Africa, and got her independence from Britain on 1st October, 1960. Nigeria covers a land area of approximately 923,769 square kilometres, making it the 32nd largest country in the world (CIA World Factbook, 2023).

Nigeria shares borders with four countries: Benin to the west; Niger to the north; Chad to the northeast; Cameroon to the east; whereas, it has a vast maritime border to the South with the Atlantic Ocean. As of the 2025 projections by the National Population Commission (NPC), Nigeria’s population is estimated to be around 237,527,782 (National Population Commission NPC, 2025). The population is ethnically diverse, with over 250 ethnic groups, the largest being the Hausa, Yoruba, and Igbo.

Nigeria is known for its rich cultural heritage, which includes a variety of languages, traditional practices, and artistic expressions. The country’s major cultures include:

Hausa-Fulani: Predominantly in the north, known for Islam and agriculture. Yoruba: Mainly in the southwest, noted for its rich traditions, including festivals and art. Igbo: Found in the southeast, recognized for their entrepreneurial spirit and traditional ceremonies.

The study adopted documentary method of data collection. Data will be gathered in the form of word documents and existing figures from trusted sources like: books, journal/articles, internet, newspapers, and other sources that will add facts and values to the study beyond just numerical, allowing for reasonable judgments about the viewpoints of the authors and/or researchers. This study adopted Trend analytical technique to analyse Climate Change and Food Security in Nigeria. Specifically, trend analysis is a statistical method used to identify patterns or trends in data over time.

FINDINGS/DISCUSSIONS

Impact of Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity

Climate variability significantly affects agricultural productivity, particularly in regions like Nigeria, where agriculture is a primary source of livelihood for a large portion of the population. The relationship between climate variability and agricultural output is complex and multifaceted, influenced by various climatic factors such as temperature fluctuations, rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events.

Rising temperatures have been shown to have a detrimental impact on crop yields. For instance, studies indicate that an increase in average temperatures can lead to reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for staple crops such as maize and cassava (Ani, Anyika, & Mutambara, 2023). The negative effects of temperature on crop yields are compounded by erratic rainfall patterns, which can lead to droughts or flooding. These climatic extremes disrupt planting and harvesting schedules, reduce soil moisture, and ultimately diminish crop yields (Useni & Umar, 2023). Oguniyi (2023), surmised that climate change adaptation options are necessary to buffer these unfavourable climatic changes, as they can help mitigate the decline in food security resulting from such variability.

Table1: Variability in Food Productivity in Geo-Political Due to Climate Change

Regions	Average Crop Yield (tons/ha)	Crops Effected	Main Climate Challenges	Food Insecurity Prevalence (%)
North-East	1.5	Rice; Millet; Maize	Drought, desertification	70
North-West	1.7	Rice; Millet	Drought, desertification	71
North-Central	2.7	Yams; Potatoes; etc.	Desert encroachment	79
South-East	2.5	Cassava; Maize	Flooding, erosion	40
South-South	2.0	Cassava	Extreme rainfall	55
South-West	2.2	Cococa; Corn; etc.	Coastal erosion, flooding	50

Source: Chukwudum, & Nadarajah (2022).

The above table highlights the differences in agricultural productivity across various regions in Nigeria, influenced by climate variability.

Figure 1: Trends of crop production in Nigeria, 2010-2023

Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin (2023); cited in Ezekwe, Imara, & Appolos (2024).

The above figure shows the trend of crop production in Nigeria from 2010 to 2023.

Table 2: Changes in Crop Yields Due to Climate Variability 2015-2022

Year	Maize Yield (tons/ha)	Rice Yield (tons/ha)	Cassava Yield (tons/ha)	Average Temperature (°C)	Annual Rainfall (mm)
2015	2.8	2.5	12.0	27.0	1200
2016	2.5	2.3	11.5	27.5	1150
2017	2.3	2.1	11.0	28.0	1100
2018	2.1	1.9	10.5	28.2	1050
2019	1.9	1.8	10.0	28.5	1000
2020	1.7	1.6	9.5	28.7	950
2021	1.5	1.5	9.0	29.0	900
2022	1.3	1.4	8.5	29.2	850

Source: Ani, Anyika, & Mutambara (2022).

The above table shows and summarizes the average crop yields of major staples in Nigeria over recent years, highlighting the impact of climate variability.

Table 3: Economic Impact of Climate Change on Food Production 2018- 2023

Year	Estimated Economic Loss (USD million)	Key Factors Contributing to Losses
2018	500	Drought, reduced crop yields
2019	600	Flooding, pest outbreaks
2020	700	Erratic rainfall, crop failures
2021	800	Increased temperatures, drought
2022	900	Extreme weather events
2023	980	Extreme weather conditions

Source: Ezekwe, Imara, & Appolos (2024).

The table summarizes the economic losses in the agricultural sector due to climate variability over recent years.

From the tables and figure above, it can be adduced that there exist socioeconomic implications of climate variability or change on agricultural productivity. As agricultural output declines, food insecurity rises, particularly among rural populations that rely heavily on farming for their livelihoods. This situation exacerbates poverty levels and can lead to increased migration as individuals seek better opportunities elsewhere (Oyakhilomen, 2023). Furthermore, the economic losses incurred from reduced agricultural productivity can have ripple effects throughout the economy, affecting food prices and access to essential resources (Ogunniyi, 2023, Emegha, Ofobuike & Ochuba, 2025).

Adaptation Strategies and Resilience Building

Table 4: Adoption of Climate-Smart Agricultural Practices and Their Impact on Productivity

Practice Adopted	Percentage of Farmers (%)	Average Yield Increase (%)	Impact on Food Security
Improved Seed Varieties	45	20	Positive
Crop Rotation	30	15	Positive
Conservation Tillage	25	10	Moderate
Irrigation Techniques	20	25	Significant
Integrated Pest Management	15	12	Positive

Source: Ani, Anyika, & Mutambara (2022).

This table presents data on the adoption of climate-smart practices among farmers and the corresponding changes in productivity.

Expectedly, humans have learnt to adapt to changes, farmers too are increasingly adapting/adopting climate-smart agricultural practices. These practices include the use of improved seed varieties, crop rotation, and conservation tillage, which have been shown to enhance resilience to climate impacts (Useni & Umar, 2023). However, the adoption of these practices is often hindered by political, and socioeconomic barriers, such as limited access to financial resources and agricultural extension services. Addressing these barriers is crucial for enhancing agricultural productivity and ensuring food security in the face of climate change (Ani et al., 2023).

Policy Frameworks and Governance Challenges in tackling Food Insecurity in Nigeria

Food insecurity in Nigeria is a multifaceted issue exacerbated by inadequate policy frameworks and governance challenges. The interplay between these factors significantly hampers efforts to achieve food security, particularly in a country where a substantial portion of the population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods. In this discourse, we explored the existing policy frameworks, identified governance challenges, and discussed their implications for food security in Nigeria.

Policy wise, the Nigerian state has developed several key policy frameworks aimed at addressing food insecurity, including:

National Agricultural Policy: Established in 1988, this policy aims to enhance agricultural productivity and ensure food security by promoting sustainable agricultural practices and improving the livelihoods of farmers (Useni & Umar, 2023).

National Food Security Programme: This program was initiated in 2000 to coordinate efforts across different sectors to improve food availability and access, ensuring that all Nigerians have sufficient food to meet their nutritional needs (Useni & Umar, 2023).

Agricultural Promotion Policy (APP): Launched in 2016, the APP focuses on increasing local food production through various initiatives, including support for smallholder farmers and investment in agricultural infrastructure (Useni & Umar, 2023).

National Hunger Response Governance Framework: Introduced in 2018, this framework emphasizes a collaborative approach involving public, private, civil society, and development partners to address hunger and food insecurity comprehensively (Useni & Umar, 2023).

Despite the existence of these policies, their implementation has often been inconsistent and plagued by inefficiencies. For instance, the lack of coherence among different agricultural policies has led to fragmented efforts that fail to address the root causes of food insecurity effectively.

Moreover, the policies often do not adequately consider the climatic and socioeconomic realities faced by farmers, who constitute the majority of agricultural producers in Nigeria. This oversight limits the effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving food security, as these farmers are frequently marginalized in policy discussions and decision-making processes (Ogunniyi, 2023).

Governance challenges play a critical role in exacerbating food insecurity in Nigeria. Corruption, lack of transparency, and inadequate institutional capacity hinder the effective implementation of food security policies. For example, funds allocated for agricultural development are often mismanaged or diverted, leading to insufficient resources for essential programs. Additionally, bureaucratic inefficiencies and poor coordination among government agencies further complicate the execution of food security initiatives (Ani, Anyika, & Mutambara, 2023)

The political landscape in Nigeria also contributes to governance challenges. Political instability and conflict, particularly in regions affected by violence and insecurity, disrupt agricultural activities and displace farming communities. This situation not only reduces food production but also limits access to markets and essential services, exacerbating food insecurity (Ogunniyi, 2023).

The shortcomings in policy frameworks and governance have significant implications for food security in Nigeria. The inability to implement effective policies results in persistent hunger and malnutrition, particularly among vulnerable populations. Furthermore, the lack of a coordinated approach to food security undermines efforts to build resilience against climate change and other external shocks that threaten agricultural productivity (Ogunniyi, 2023).

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Conclusively, this study revealed that there is a critical relationship between climate change and food insecurity, highlighting that climate change poses significant threats to agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and changes in rainfall patterns severely impact crop yields, disrupt food supply chains, and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities among farmers, particularly those in marginalized communities. The findings underscore the need for a multi-faceted approach that integrates climate adaptation strategies into agricultural policies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on food security. As Nigeria continues to navigate these challenges, it is imperative that stakeholders, including government agencies, farmers, and civil society organizations, work collaboratively to enhance resilience and ensure food security for all.

Based on the foregoing, the study recommended thus:

Enhance Climate-Resilient Agricultural Practices: Implement training programs and incentives for farmers to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices, such as crop diversification, improved irrigation techniques, and sustainable land management. This will help increase productivity and resilience against climate variability.

Strengthen Policy Frameworks and Governance: Develop and enforce comprehensive policies that integrate climate change adaptation into agricultural planning and food security strategies. This includes improving inter-agency coordination and ensuring that policies are inclusive, particularly for smallholder farmers.

Invest in Research and Development: Allocate funding and resources to research initiatives focused on developing climate-resilient crop varieties and innovative farming technologies. Collaborative efforts between universities, research institutions, and the agricultural sector can drive advancements that enhance food security.

Promote Public Awareness and Education: Launch awareness campaigns to educate communities about the impacts of climate change on food security and the importance of sustainable practices. Engaging local populations in discussions and decision-making processes will empower them to take proactive measures in addressing food insecurity challenges associated with climate change.

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