International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) | Volume VI, Issue VI, June 2022 | ISSN 2454–6186
Tesfabrhan Michael Sereke
MA in International Relations – International Humanitarian Action – University of Groningen [Netherlands] and UCD [Ireland] – Joint MA Degree
MA in Public Policy – Korean Development Institute [KDI], Sejong, Korea Republic
MA in Sociology – from Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China
BA in Sociology and Social Work – University of Asmara, Asmara, Eritrea
Abstract: President Vladimir Putin officially declared Russia’s long-feared invasion of Ukraine under ‘special military operation to de-militarise and de-Nazify Ukraine’ on 24 February 2022. The war has been unleashing a staggering magnitude of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, with potentially lasting economic and security challenge that goes beyond the belligerent countries. Seven rounds of peace talks failed, yet no hope of peace in sight, chiefly for it fails to capture the broader picture and nature of the proxies that should have engaged. The conflict’s domino effect has been pulling in numerous actors in one way or another. Hence, it could be the tipping point of our shambling global security as NATO and Russia tension soars gravely, echoing WWIII. This paper attempts to unearth and analyse the fundamental underpinning proxy nature of the war from the dissolution of the Warsaw pact, in effect, German unification, entangled to what Russia claims has traded-off to no-NATO expansion towards its flank and hence ‘broken promise’. The paper further analyses how the diplomatic and economic sanction against Russia has been crippled to alter the equation in pressuring Russia for roundtable negotiation. Delving into the arguments of the NATO-Russia standoff since post-WWII through the current development, this paper spots a potential middle ground and suggests the proxies’ – NATO-Russia engagement as the only way out for lasting negotiated pacified Settlement. The paper employs the Security dilemma perspective.
Acronym
CIA – Central Intelligence Agency
CREA – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
CSTO – Collective Security Treaty Organization
ECU – Eurasian Customs Union
EU – European Union
IDP – Internally Displaced People
NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization, interchangeably used with “alliance.”
NGOs – Non-Governmental Organisations
NPT – Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapon Treaty
Quad – Quadrilateral Security Dialogue
SCO – Shanghai Cooperation Organization
UK – United Kingdom
UN – United Nations
UNSC – United Nations Security Council
US – United States
WWIII – World War Three
I.INTRODUCTION
Since the Russian invasion, the situation in Ukraine has been exceptionally awful, and the humanitarian crisis is progressively on the surge. The plight of the humanitarian crisis sparked by the war proved to be the most pronounced of the initial worldwide shockwaves, with a likelihood of the most enduring legacies of the war (World Bank, 10 April 2022). The Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator-Martin Griffiths’ account attests that the Ukrainians are paying unprecedented war prices. In the first six weeks only, in its very conservative estimate, about 1,430 civilians have been killed, 121 are children. Significant social institutions, such as hospitals, schools, bridges, and malls, have been reduced to rubbles. Since the invasion kicked off until 5 April 2022, the exponentially rolling exodus of Ukrainians to neighbouring