International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI) | Volume VI, Issue XII, December 2019 | ISSN 2321–2705

Statistical Analysis of Insecurity and Criminal Cases in Ibadan, Oyo State Nigeria

Saheed. A. Afolabi

Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract: – This research examines the state of insecurity and criminal cases within the Ibadan community and its environs. Despite several security measures put in place by the Government to curb criminal activities, the state of insecurity and criminal related activities is on the increase and becoming worrisome and embarrassing. This research uses two sets of data – data collected through the administration of questionnaires to the University of Ibadan students, residence within and outside the campus and data obtained from the Nigeria Prisons Service, Agodi Prison Division, P.M.B 5174 Ibadan, Oyo State. Descriptive statistics, inferential statistics and time series analyses were carried out, such as stationary test, model identification, estimation and evaluation, and forecast. The results show that there is a significant relationship between the causes and possible solutions to insecurity within the Ibadan community and their environs at 5% significance level (p=0.000) and the selected criminal cases examined using the unit root (ADF) test established appropriate dynamic models with the AIC values of 5.14, 5.18 and 4.43 respectively for the next four years’ prediction (2017 to 2020). The results therefore suggest that insecurity and criminal cases in Ibadan and its environment tend to increase over time which could be due to many factors from either government or individuals.

Keywords: Insecurity, Terrorism, Militancy, Stealing and Burglary, Time Series Analysis

I. INTRODUCTION

Insecurity simply refers to the breach of peace and security. Many Nigerians have it at the back of their minds that factors like: bad governance, unemployment, poverty, religion issues and ethnicity may have driven the youths to violent acts like cultism, terrorism, and kidnapping. Youth development ought to be the topmost priority of any country, this is because the youths constitute a formidable force and if their energies are properly channeled, there will be immense growth and development and many believe they are the leaders of tomorrow. However, when such energies are not properly channeled, such a country will definitely experience different problems as Nigeria of today is facing it. Ibadan town, Oyo state a home of peace, harmony and unity (Pace Setter) has now turned to a place of panicking and unsettled vicinity, (Agodi Criminal Activities Reports, 2016) where people can no longer sleep with their two eyes closed due to the menace of insecurity and criminal acts, in the same vein, members of the Boko Haram sect. keep increasing their killings in the country. The main problem facing tertiary institutions in Oyo State and Nigeria at large today is the issue of insecurity and criminal related activities.