Voting Behaviour among Rural Communities During the 2023 Presidential Election in Nigeria: A Study of Select Local Governments in Katsina State

Voting Behaviour among Rural Communities During the 2023 Presidential Election in Nigeria: A Study of Select Local Governments in Katsina State

Aliyu Mukhtar Katsina., Muhammad Muhammad

Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, UMYU, Katsina

DOI:  https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.8090221

Received: 30 September 2024; Accepted: 04 October 2024; Published: 16 October 2024

ABSTRACT

Nigeria’s presidential elections are profound reflections of the socio-economic, ethno-religious, socio-cultural, and political pulse of the nation since democratization in 1999. Essentially, this situation raises questions around the sociological and political factors shaping the voting behaviour of the electorates during presidential elections in the country. Were the considerations and factors that informed voters’ choices and behaviour in rural communities, during the elections ideological, economic, or primordial that have characterized Nigeria’s identity politics? This article interrogates this question and seeks answer to the motivations, incentives, and influences that determined voting behaviour during the 2023 presidential election in rural communities in Nigeria. Methodologically, the article relied on quantitative and qualitative data obtained conveniently from diverse sample size distributed across three local government areas (LGAs) of Katsina State. These were Baure, Bindawa, and Musawa. Their choice was informed by several considerations including representativeness, convenience, and accessibility. To ground the investigation theoretically, the funnel of causality model was employed with its emphasis on long-term, intermediate, and immediate factors influencing voting choices and behaviours, notably among rural communities. Findings from our investigation showed that voting behaviour in rural communities during the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria was shaped by a complex interplay of socio-economic conditions, traditional leadership, and localized concerns. Additionally, we showed that the election underscored the importance of personal interaction between candidates and voters, with many rural voters prioritizing candidates they had direct relationships with over party affiliations, ethno-religious affinity, and even ideological considerations.

Keywords: Baure, Bindawa, Election, Fourth Republic, Katsina, Musawa, Nigeria, Rural, 2023 Presidential Election, Voting, Voting Behaviour.

INTRODUCTION

Voting is, perhaps, the most crucial feature of the democratic system of government.  It not only embodies the essence of democracy but also serves as an important measure for determining its quality. It is also an important principle that distinguishes democratic governance from non-democratic ones. Voting, as a principle, is as critical as the factors that inform voters’ preferences vis-à-vis parties and their candidates during elections. Elections and electoral politics that occur with measured regularity and consistency are, therefore, the life-wire of democratic governance. They offer citizens not just the opportunity to participate in deciding who hold public offices and control governments but, importantly, insights into the nature and character of the incentives with which parties entice citizens for support, and for which voters show preferences for some candidates and parties over others during electoral contests.

Current discourse on electoral politics shows that a number of factors play a vital role in shaping voters’ preferences during elections. Notable among these are ideological leaning of candidates, public opinion and influence of the media, party affiliations and the socio-economic conditions of voters.  Recent data from elections in both advanced and emerging democracies such as the US, Kenya, and India have shown that voter preferences often fluctuate between partisan loyalties, media influence, and stand of candidates on socio-economic issues. Primordial sentiments and considerations such as ultra-nationalism, white-supremacism, and Christian exceptionalism in Europe and the US appeared to have become equally useful determinants of voting behaviour, especially among white voters in rural agrarian and provincial communities in the West.

In Africa there is a noted propensity among voters to gravitate towards primordialism and to vote along ethnic and religious lines. Electoral outcomes have, on numerous occasions, been decided by these factors. This situation has clear implications on democratic consolidation. Rather than encourage inclusion, it promotes exclusion, which nurtures marginalization and alienation. For Nigeria that has had experiences with democratic collapse and even civil war on account of electoral and democratic politics, determining the factors that shaped voters’ behaviour during elections and linking that with the potential for consolidation is, thus, crucial to long-term political stability and unity of the nation and its people.

Between 1999 and 2023, Nigerians have witnessed seven presidential elections, with those of 1999, 2007, and 2015 being the most historic in Nigeria’s electoral politics. While the election of 1999 heralded the dawn of democracy after nearly two decades, the election of 2007 led, for the first time ever, to a peaceful transfer of power from one president to another. The 2015 presidential election not only produced a new president, but also became the first in which the incoming president was not from the dominant ruling party. For many reasons, however, the 2023 presidential elections would remain decisive, historic, and intriguing in the annals of electoral politics in Nigeria since independence in 1960. For a country where electoral politics thrives on notions of identity – ethnic and religious – the victory of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) and its so-called Muslim-Muslim ticket heralded a dawn unparalleled in Nigeria’s democratic evolution. Voters largely ignored religious and other primordial lines.

Considered carefully, the outcome of the 2023 presidential election would appear to be a vote of confidence on the APC which, by then, had ruled the federal government for eight years. This was at odds with the wide perception that the party and its government between 2015 and 2023 mismanaged the economy, deepened insecurity, and entrenched corruption, thereby escalating levels of poverty, social inequality, and voter apathy. Essentially, this situation raises questions around the outcome of the election as well as the nature, patterns, dimension of voting behaviour among the electorates during the 2023 presidential election. Were the considerations and factors that informed voters’ choices and behaviour in rural communities, during the elections ideological, economic, or primordial that have characterized Nigeria’s identity politics? This article interrogates this question and seeks answer to the motivations, incentives, and influences that determined voting behaviour during the 2023 presidential election in rural communities in Nigeria.

Significance, Context and Scope

The significance of this study is clear. As a democratizing society, Nigeria has already passed the Huntington’s two-test turnover for measuring and assessing the prospects for consolidation. But not a few scholars of electoral and democratic studies believe that the quality of its democracy has somewhat eroded overtime. Rather than deepening, democracy appears to have stagnated with only features such as free press and periodic, even if always contested, elections in place. Understanding the determinants for voting would, therefore, enrich the discourse on how plural democratizing societies such as Nigeria negotiate and balance the influence of religio-ethnic nationalism and politico-economic considerations in the struggle for power; and secondly, the literature on electoral politics on Nigeria is still growing, and an addition such as this would further enrich it.

Fundamentally, the 2023 presidential election holds particular significance as it unfolded in the context of complex challenges, most notably economic instability, heightened insecurity, and a population grappling with disenchantment towards the political class. It is important to note that while the policy debates in Nigeria’s urban centres revolved around national security and economic development, the rural areas, where significant portion of Nigeria’s population resides, presented a different narrative (Olalekan, 2019). In these communities, electoral choices have always been shaped by localized considerations including direct access to affordable healthcare, infrastructure, agricultural policies, and communal interests. Voting decisions in rural communities tend to reflect practical concerns over ideological or abstract political considerations (Ibrahim & Folarin, 2020). Understanding the voting behaviour in rural areas, therefore, provides a critical lens for understanding the complex dynamics in Nigeria’s electoral politics.

Katsina State is one of the thirty-six (36) states that formed the federation of Nigeria. With thirty-four (34) local government areas (LGAs) spread across three senatorial zones, Katsina is one of the largest states in Nigeria in terms of population and landmass. A sizeable portion of this land is fertile and being cultivated by an even higher percentage of its indigenes who resides in rural communities. Thus, its location and its composition as well as convenience for the research team made Katsina State a beautiful choice as a case study for understanding the dynamics that shaped the voting behaviour of rural communities during the 2023 presidential election. Although case studies have limited utility in terms of wider generalizability, still we believe our findings will be sufficiently robust as to be useful in understanding similar cases and contexts in the country. We choose three LGAs for our investigation. These are Baure from Daura Senatorial Zone, Bindawa from Katsina Senatorial Zone, and Musawa from Funtua Senatorial Zone. We decided on this approach to ensure representation and robustness in the choice of our population sample. This way, opinions and perspectives would have wider-state connotation.

Election: A Conceptual Clarification

Conceptual clarification is always an important starting point for discourses such as this. Election is both a process and a procedure. As a process, it entails an acceptable exercise in which options are offered to members of a political community in recruiting political leadership. As a procedure, election refers to the guidelines and regulations that are put in place to ensure the choice of set of political leadership at predetermined intervals in the community. This explains why it is often perceived as a procedure for regulatory competition for political power through votes. Essentially, elections are the fundamental building blocks of democracy (Report of the Electoral Reform Committee, 2008). The electoral system of any given country plays a fundamental role in sustaining and shaping the political behaviour of its citizens (Okolo, 2000). Many countries are constantly refining and/or reforming their electoral processes to ensure the emergence of the right kind of political leadership.

Explaining Voting

Voting is actually one of the many derivatives of elections as both a principle and a process. Put simply, voting refers to the act or the process of selecting and or choosing officials or policies by casting a ballot – a document used by people to formally express their preferences. Republics and representative democracies are governments where the population chooses representatives by voting. The procedure for identifying the winners based on number of votes varies depending on both the country and the political office. In a democracy, the government is elected by the people who vote in an election – a way for an electorate to elect, that is choose, from several different candidates  (Emerson, 2016). Voting, often periodically, is accepted by scholars of democratic studies as part of the actual demonstration and manifestation of popular sovereignty, which undergirds democratic regimes. Although the intervals between elections may differ from country to another, the actual act of voting has, overtime, became near-universally common. Citizens cast their votes secretly under arrangements, often by unbiased non-partisan umpires.

Voting Behaviour: A Conceptual Analysis

Voting behaviour refers to the decision-making process of individuals when choosing a political party or candidate to vote for. It takes into account various factors such as cognitive considerations, personal traits, political issues, ideology, ethno-cultural and sociological considerations, and past performance of parties and candidates. People’s voting behaviour is influenced by limited attention, simplification strategies, and the perceived relevance of information at a given moment. Additionally, voting behaviour refers to how people decide to vote in an election for any given position. This decision is shaped by a complex interplay between an individual voter’s attitudes as well as other social factors. Voter attitudes include characteristics such as ideological predisposition, party identity, degree of satisfaction with the existing government, public policy leanings, and feelings about a candidate’s personality traits (Jenke & Huettel,  2016).

It is important to note that voting behaviour in an electoral democracy is influenced by a complex mix of factors, often referred to as determinants. These determinants can be broadly categorized into three groups. These are the sociological, psychological, and contextual factors. Sociological factors include ethnicity and race, religion and degree of religiosity, social and economic status, and degree of educational attainments. (Jenke & Huettel, 2016). Psychological factors mostly revolve around questions of political socialization, political party identification, and cognitive dissonance. For contextual factors, we have issues such as policies, candidates’ appeal, electoral system, campaign and publicity, and socio-economic conditions.

Framework for Analysis

Social scientists are in agreement that one of the most important functions of empirical research is to contribute to the development and refinement of theory that enhances the goal of social sciences (Nachmias, 1992). In view of this, we use the funnel of causality model as our framework for analysis. We believe that the model possesses adequate theoretical and intellectual thrust as to serve the purpose of our investigation.

Funnel of Causality Model

The funnel of causality model is often used in political science, especially in studies of voting behaviour and decision-making processes, to illustrate how various factors contribute to outcomes, like voter choices. The model was first introduced by Angus Campbell and his colleagues in their 1960 book, The American Voter. The model helps to conceptualize the relationship between different influences on individual decisions, particularly over time, by organizing them hierarchically. Structurally, funnel of causality is constructed with three distinct but related parts, which together explain choices. These are the wider end (distant causes), middle of the funnel (intermediate causes), and the narrow end of the funnel (immediate causes).

At the widest part of the funnel, there are long-term, stable factors that affect behaviour, such as social characteristics like gender, race, education, religion, and partisan identification. These factors tend to exert a more indirect, but powerful, influence on decisions. As one moves towards the narrower part of the funnel, factors become more immediate and context-dependent, such as political values, ideology, and positions on issues. These factors are more malleable and may change with political events or campaigns. At the narrowest part of the funnel are short-term influences, such as specific candidate evaluations, campaign messages, and media coverage that impact the final decision, i.e. voting behaviour (Campbell et al., 1960).

Generally, it is assumed that the causality within this model flows from the wider, distant factors to the narrower, more immediate factors, reflecting how a variety of influences narrow down into specific decisions or behaviours. The funnel model is particularly useful in understanding voting behaviour because it shows how decisions are not made in a vacuum but are shaped by a lifetime of experiences and context. It can also be applied to marketing or consumer behaviour, helping to understand how broader factors eventually influence a purchase decision (Miller & Shanks, 1996).

Application of the Model to the Study

To explain voting behaviour among rural voters using the funnel of causality, there is the need for us to break down how different layers of the funnel influence the final decision-making process. For rural voters, these layers often reflect a blend of socioeconomic, cultural, and political factors that guide their preferences, perceptions, and voting behaviour.

Figure 1: Funnel of Causality Model Predicting Voting Choice

Source: Dalton (1988).

Let us recall that the funnel has what could be described as three components. These are the wider, the middle, and the narrow end. At the wider end of the funnel, we have long-term stable influences that are often deeply ingrained and not likely to change over short periods. They include socioeconomic characteristics. Many rural voters tend to have lower population densities, often lower access to higher education, and employment tied to agriculture, small businesses, or local industries. This can influence their political priorities, such as support for policies related to farming subsidies, and economic self-sufficiency. There are also cultural values and identities. Rural areas often foster traditional values and a strong sense of community. Voters in these regions may hold conservative views on social issues like family structure, religion, and marriage. This long-term, cultural identity aligns them with political candidates or parties that reflect these values (often conservative or right-wing parties, though this varies by country). The last under long-term influences is partisan identification. Historically, rural voters tend to align with particular political parties that they believe best represent their values and interests. In the US, for example, rural voters have often supported the Republican Party, while in other countries, rural areas may support left-leaning agrarian parties. This loyalty often forms early and remains stable over time, passing from one generation to another.

At the middle of the funnel, we encounter intermediate influences, factors, and dynamics which, as election period draws, start shaping how these long-term characteristics play out in a specific election context. These include policy issues and concerns. Rural voters may focus on issues like agricultural policies, healthcare access, rural infrastructure, and economic development. Candidates who can address these concerns effectively will resonate with rural voters. For instance, rural voters might favour policies that protect industries critical to their livelihoods, like agriculture, energy, or small business, and oppose policies perceived to harm these sectors. Economic and social security also feature here quite prominently. Many rural voters may perceive threats to their way of life due to economic globalization, urbanization, or environmental policies that impact farming or resource extraction. This can lead to voting behaviour driven by a desire for stability and preservation of rural life. Another consideration are political values and ideology. In this stage, rural voters’ existing political ideologies—such as conservatism or populism—are activated in response to the specific candidates, campaigns, and political climate of a particular election cycle. For example, conservative ideology may emphasize self-reliance, limited government, and traditional social norms, which become significant factors in choosing a candidate.

The last component is the narrow end of the funnel where we have short-term and immediate influences. As election day draws near, short-term influences like specific events, candidate behaviour, or targeted campaigns come into play. Candidate evaluations is always top in this respect. Rural voters assess candidates based on their perceived ability to relate to rural communities. Candidates who demonstrate an understanding of rural issues—whether through their backgrounds, rhetoric, or policy proposals—are more likely to win support. For example, a candidate who campaigns on promises to protect rural jobs or support farmers might gain significant traction. Campaigns and media publicity is another important short-term influence. Campaign outreach in rural areas plays a critical role in shaping final voting decisions. Often, rural voters are reached through local media, grassroots organizing, or even social networks. In the US, for instance, conservative media outlets and social media platforms have proven influential in shaping rural voters’ perceptions of candidates. Campaign visits to rural communities or tailored messaging that speaks directly to rural concerns also have a strong impact. Events or crisis moments is another crucial consideration. In some cases, a crisis or significant event—like a natural disaster, economic downturn, or political scandal—might tip the scales. Rural voters might then look to candidates who can offer a sense of leadership, safety, or economic relief in times of uncertainty.

It is interesting to note that in the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections, rural voters strongly supported Donald Trump, largely due to factors reflected in the funnel of causality. Many rural voters had long identified with the Republican Party, due to its advocacy for conservative social values, support for small government, and policies that protect traditional industries like coal, oil, and agriculture. At the intermediate level, Trump’s platform on economic nationalism, opposition to globalization, and emphasis on “draining the swamp” resonated with rural voters who felt neglected by urban-focused policies and global trade deals. His hard stance on immigration also appealed to voters concerned about job competition and cultural change. Under the short-term influence, Trump’s populist rhetoric, direct outreach, and ability to frame himself as a champion of “forgotten Americans” solidified his support among rural voters. Many felt he spoke directly to their economic anxieties and cultural concerns, especially when he promised to revitalize rural economies and protect traditional industries.

The funnel of causality model provides a structured way to understand how different factors interact to shape voting behaviour in rural areas (Simeon, 1976). Long-standing cultural values, socioeconomic conditions, and partisan loyalties lay the groundwork for how rural voters approach politics. These are then shaped and activated by more immediate concerns, such as economic policies and political ideologies, and, finally, the specific campaigns, candidates, and media messages that reach rural voters right before the election. This model is, therefore, particularly useful for understanding rural voters because it accounts for how deeply-rooted values and identities shape behaviour, while also recognizing the importance of context and short-term dynamics in determining electoral outcomes.

Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election: Parties, Candidates, and the Issues

The presidential election of 2023 was the seventh since democratization of Nigeria in May 1999. The 2023 presidential election was in many respects both historic, remarkable, and its outcome dramatic. It was historic because that was the third time power was changing hands between popularly elected presidents in the country. The two previous elections that ushered new governments were those of 2007 and 2015. It was also remarkable because it witnessed another consensus by the Nigeria’s political elite to negotiate power along the rotational principle. In our view, the outcome was also dramatic because voting lines clearly transcended Nigeria’s traditional ethnic, cultural, and religious fault-lines and divides of the Muslims versus Christians.

The two dominant parties that contested were APC and PDP. Both fielded persons who identified as Muslims as their presidential flagbearer. But whereas Atiku Abubakar of PDP shared the ticket with a Christian, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC choose a fellow Muslim as his running mate. Although at the time it was controversial, with the benefit of hindsight this decision by Tinubu helped to demystify the relevance of religion as one of the major factors influencing voting behaviour among Nigerians. As our investigation would later reveal, religion did not play a significant role in shaping the outcome of the 2023 presidential election in the areas we covered.

Table 1: Result of the 2023 Presidential Election

Source: www.inecnigeria.org

Naturally, campaigns and mobilization for votes by the parties and their candidates rotated around other important issues and concerns. Topmost for both candidates were the state of the economy. Years of poor economic planning, mismanagement, wasteful expenditures, and unbridled corruption have by 2023 brought Nigeria’s economy to a deplorable condition. Poverty, unemployment, and social inequality have escalated. The seeming inability of the Buhari administration (2015-2023) to address the problem of insecurity, especially banditry in the North have confounded the economic situation and made Nigeria a nation on the verge of collapse. Consequently, the concern for the parties, their candidates, and the about-ninety million registered voters was electing the right candidate who would have the vision, the energy, the courage, and the right team to stop Nigeria from collapsing first, before repositioning it in a better direction. Needless to say, both were daunting tasks, especially in the face of successive mediocre and corrupt administrations since 1999. It is important to quickly point that although Table 1 listed four (4) presidential candidates during the 2023 presidential election, the number of contestants was much higher. We only decided to include the names of the top four that made any appreciable electoral statement during the contest.

Nigeria’s Electoral Landscape and Rural Voting Patterns

The Nigerian electoral landscape is shaped by a mix of ethno-religious, sociological, and politico-economic factors and forces. Ethnic identity, regional nationalism, religious affiliations, tensions and conflicts, economic challenges and underdevelopment, poverty, social inequality, expanding youths’ demographics and disempowerment are some of the many issues that have attended electoral and democratic governance in Nigeria since 1999. Candidates and parties have employed these issues in crafting their messages to the voters, with many promising transformations and eldorado once elected into office.

 Since 1999, focus and debates on urban and national politics often animated the public space and dominated media coverage. However, this is not to imply that rural issues and concerns including how communities vote are not important to presidential electoral outcomes. In every election cycle, rural voters make up a significant proportion of the electorate. Their decisions, therefore, wield considerable influence, especially in determining electoral results in regions that are politically volatile or closely contested (Okafor, 2016).

In Nigeria, the urban-rural divide significantly shapes electoral behaviour. Urban voters, often exposed to diverse sources of information and political ideologies, tend to engage in policy-driven debates, focusing on national economic performance, governance, and human rights issues. On the other hand, rural voters are more likely to base their decisions on local issues, such as agricultural subsidies, access to clean water, healthcare, and education, as well as more immediate concerns such as insecurity and infrastructural development (Uche, 2018). This disparity is rooted in the socio-economic realities of rural Nigeria, where the quality of life is often defined by access to basic amenities and governmental presence.

Additionally, rural voting patterns in Nigeria are heavily influenced by traditional and communal leaders, who serve as intermediaries between the electorate and the political elite. These leaders, often held in high regard in their communities, have the moral authority to sway voters by endorsing particular candidates. Their influence extends beyond mere political advice, as their approval or disapproval of a candidate can significantly affect voting outcomes in rural areas (Bello & Usman, 2019). In many cases, the ability of candidates to secure the backing of key traditional rulers has often determined their success in rural constituencies.

In the 2023 presidential election, rural voters were again a critical factor in determining the outcome. Across the country, voters in rural communities expressed concerns about issues specific to their daily lives, such as rising insecurity due to banditry and kidnapping, poor infrastructure, and economic challenges linked to agriculture, and environmental degradation due to changing climatic conditions and increased human activities. Candidates who were able to address these concerns in their campaigns garnered the support of rural voters, who placed a premium on solutions that would directly improve their living conditions (Adewale & Onabanjo, 2022). This underscores the importance of rural voters in Nigerian elections, as their preferences can shift the balance of power in closely contested races.

Nature of Voting in Baure, Bindawa, and Musawa LGAs

Urban-rural differences provide a distinctive flavour to the nature of voting and electoral politics in developing democracies. In Nigeria, for instance, rural communities remained crucial battlegrounds for political parties competing in a given electoral competition because of the opportunity they provide for parties to demonstrate their relevance and clout locally at the grassroots level (Mala, 2015). However, in our three LGAs, we have established that the nature of voting was shaped by several interlocking factors, including socio-cultural traditions, economic conditions, and communal affiliations. These rural communities, like many others in northern Nigeria, are characterized by strong kinship networks and traditional leadership structures, which play a central role in shaping political preferences (Danlami, 2020). Voting in these rural communities is not merely an individual choice but is often seen as a collective decision made in consultation with community leaders and elders, religious leaders and other related stakeholders who act as guides in determining which candidates are best suited to address the community’s needs.

Traditional leaders, including village heads and religious figures, are critical in mobilizing voters. Their endorsement of a candidate often carries more weight than campaign promises made by political actors. In many cases, candidates seeking election in rural areas like Baure, Bindawa, and Musawa must first secure the backing of these local influencers to gain the trust and support of the electorate (Abubakar, 2018). This dynamic is reflective of a broader pattern in rural Nigeria, where traditional leadership continues to wield significant influence over political decisions, despite the formal constitutional and democratic structures in place.

Another key characteristic of voting behaviour in the rural communities under investigation is the prominence of communal loyalty over individual political preferences. During elections, voters often feel a sense of obligation to vote in a manner that aligns with the interests of their community. This is partly because the outcomes of elections in rural areas have direct implications for the distribution of resources, appointments, and development projects. Candidates who are seen as likely to deliver tangible benefits to the community, such as construction of roads and other physical infrastructure, healthcare facilities, and agricultural subsidies, are more likely to receive widespread support, even if they do not align with voters’ personal political beliefs (Giwa, 2021).

Furthermore, voter turnout in these local communities in Katsina State is influenced by the level of engagement and education on electoral matters. Due to the rural nature of the communities, many residents rely on informal networks for information about candidates and the electoral process. This reliance on local sources often resulted in the spread of misinformation or a general lack of awareness about national political issues, leading to a focus on more localized concerns (Ogundele & Yakubu, 2020). The involvement of local leaders in voter education is, therefore, crucial in ensuring that voters in rural areas are informed about the stakes of the election and the importance of their participation in the democratic process (Hassan & Musa, 2017).

Demographics, Socio-Economic Factors, and Voting Behaviour in Rural Communities

Demographic and socio-economic factors are key drivers of voting behaviour in Baure, Bindawa, and Musawa LGAs of Katsina State. Age, gender, education, and economic status all play important roles in shaping political consciousness and awareness, levels of electoral engagement, and voting preferences among communities. Younger voters, for example, tend to prioritize issues such as job creation, access to education, and youth empowerment, while older voters may be more concerned with stability, agricultural support, and social services (Falola, 2021). These differing priorities are shaped by the specific life experiences and socio-economic conditions of each demographic group.

In Katsina State, as in many similar communities, socio-economic conditions have a profound impact on electoral and voting behaviour. The communities are largely agrarian, with the majority of its residents engaged in farming. As such, issues related to agriculture, such as access to fertilizers, government subsidies, and the provision of modern farming tools, are central to the political conversation especially in these rural communities. Candidates who are perceived as being sympathetic to the plight of farmers and who promise to improve agricultural conditions are more likely to receive the support of rural voters (Nwosu & Adamu, 2022).

Insecurity is another issue of great concern to the people of Katsina State. It has remained a pressing issue in the State and other rural parts of northern Nigeria. The rise of banditry and kidnapping in the region have severely affected the livelihoods of farmers and traders, leading to a greater emphasis on security-related concerns during elections. Voters therefore, tend to favour candidates who offer practical solutions to the issue of insecurity, such as increased police presence or military intervention (Audu, 2024). This focus on security is indicative of the broader socio-economic challenges faced by rural communities in Nigeria, where the failure of government to provide, basic services has led to widespread disillusionment with political institutions and democratic governance in general (Aliyu, 2022).

Patterns of Voting in the 2023 Presidential Elections

The 2023 presidential elections in the local government under review followed a familiar pattern seen in rural communities across northern Nigeria. Voters in Baure, Bindawa, and Musawa local governments were heavily influenced by the local socio-economic conditions, particularly the issues of insecurity, agricultural hardship, and poor infrastructure (Aliyu, 2024). The candidates who resonated most with rural voters were those who directly addressed these concerns in their campaigns, often making promises to improve rural livelihoods and ensure greater security for communities affected by banditry and other forms of violence. However, voting patterns also reflected the enduring influence of traditional leaders, who played a significant role in mobilizing the electorate.

Moreover, voting patterns also reflected the enduring influence of traditional leaders, who played a significant role in mobilizing the electorate. These leaders acted as intermediaries between the candidates and the voters, often organizing community meetings and ensuring high voter turnout. Their endorsements, grounded in communal loyalty and the need for infrastructural improvements, were crucial in swaying the opinions of undecided voters. Many political candidates, aware of this influence, focused their campaigns on winning the support of local chiefs and religious clerics, recognizing that their approval would likely translate into votes (Kano & Abdulrazaq, 2023).

Moreover, despite the national focus on urban centres and social media campaigns, the 2023 election in the communities under investigation was largely a face-to-face affair. Political parties, their representatives, and agents/campaign coordinators of the various presidential candidates frequently visited rural communities, holding town hall meetings, distributing campaign materials, and making direct promises to voters. This approach reinforced a pattern of voting that was based on personal trust and familiarity, rather than political ideology or party loyalty. For instance, many voters in Musawa expressed scepticism towards party manifestos and instead focused on candidates they felt had a track record of delivering on their promises (Haruna, 2023).

In terms of political parties, the results from these communities mirrored a trend across many rural communities, especially in northern Nigeria, where the dominance of the APC and the PDP had, until 2023, appeared solidly entrenched. However, the 2023 elections also saw a noticeable shift, with an increasing number of voters expressing support for alternative parties that promised more immediate solutions to the problems of ravaging insecurity, economic disempowerment, poverty, social inequality, and widespread corruption in government. In fact, smaller parties, notably the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) had made some electoral noise in these areas.

Despite the spirited efforts by the various political parties to influence voting behaviour of the rural people, the wide use of political thugs, sadly, undermined the integrity of the electoral process in Katsina State during the 2023 Presidential election. There were instances where voters become scared of the political thugs, this became a reason why many women and elderly voters refused to participate in the exercise. In fact, the security agencies were reportedly concerned with the possibility of violence marring the 2023 general elections in the country (Falana, 2023). Overall, however, the elections appeared to have been conducted in an atmosphere, which at best recorded low instances of serious violence capable of torpedoing the whole process. In the end, the outcome of the presidential elections though hotly contested through litigations, appeared to have broadly reflected the general will of the voters, notwithstanding the reported cases of electoral irregularities, intimidation of political opponents, and violence in various states across the federation (Falana, 2023).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the 2023 presidential elections in Baure, Bindawa, and Musawa LGAs provided a compelling case study of how rural voters in Nigeria navigate the political landscape. Voting patterns in these rural areas were shaped by a complex interplay of socio-economic conditions, traditional leadership, and localized concerns, which often differed from the broader national discourse. While national politics and media focused on urban centres, the behaviour of rural voters, particularly their emphasis on agriculture, security, and infrastructural development, played crucial role in determining electoral outcomes. The 2023 election also highlighted the continued relevance of traditional leaders in shaping electoral choices in rural communities. Their role as trusted figures within their communities makes them key players in influencing the political decisions of their followers. Additionally, the election underscored the importance of personal interaction between candidates and voters, with many rural voters prioritizing candidates they had direct relationships with over party affiliation, ethno-religious affinity, and even ideological considerations.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The fieldwork for this article was made possible by a grant from TETFUND (UMYU/IBR/2024) The Corresponding Author expresses gratitude to the team of research assistants who conducted the fieldwork, especially Malam Muhammad Muhammad who undertook the task of writing the preliminary report; to Malam Abdulrahman B. Yusuf of the Department of Political Science and International Studies, ABU Zaria for his contribution and useful insights while preparing this article; and to the Management of UMYU and the TETFUND for facilitating the research grant.

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