Performance-Based Branding and Public Trust in Kenya: Divergent Paths to Credibility

This study investigates the relationship between performance-based branding and public trust in Kenya. It compares the trust created by the branding activities of political leaders and that of government institutions, such as the judiciary or the police. Specifically, it tests whether the visual actions used by these parties—such as managing the economy, creating jobs, building roads, and providing healthcare—successfully build trust in political leaders and public institutions. The study analyzes survey data from Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024) across a sample of 2,400 Kenyan citizens, using multivariate regression to test the hypotheses. The findings reveal that public trust in Kenya is critically low and deeply divided. Performance branding has a statistically significant relationship with public trust (p < .001), led strongly by economic performance (Partial η² = .043). Crucially, trust follows two completely different paths. Trust in individual leaders (R2= 9.8%) changes quickly and operates through a transactional lens; politicians can easily buy personal popularity using quick, visible projects like job creation and roads. Conversely, trust in institutions (R2 = 6.8%) is much harder to change quickly and remains insulated from short-term fixes, relying instead on long-term honesty, a good historical reputation, and fair rules. Theoretically, the study proves that performance legitimacy follows a strict hierarchy of needs, where citizens prioritize immediate economic survival over broad civic satisfaction. In terms of policy, the government must prioritize economic stabilization over secondary agendas and mandate local labor for state projects. Furthermore, government communication must shift away from promoting individual politicians toward highlighting permanent institutional structures. Finally, deep structural reforms must be institutionalized within organs like the National Police Service, the Judiciary, and the IEBC to ensure fair rules and eliminate the abuse of power.

Political Branding, Governance Legitimacy, Performance-Based Branding, Government Performance, Afrobarometer Kenya

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