From Cooperation to Managed Rivalry: India-China Relations After Galwan and the Future of Asian Regional Order

The Galwan Valley clash in June 2020 was a watershed moment in the bilateral relationship between India and China, transposing their hitherto managed relationship from an agenda of economic interdependence and co-existence to an emerging paradigm of strategic rivalry. While the two nations’ trade volume remained high, a breakdown of trust, political goodwill, and defense co-operation has affected the security and foreign policy calculations of both New Delhi and Beijing, thereby affecting the very nature of the Asian regional order. This paper analyses the reconfiguration of India-China relations post-Galwan, and its potential consequences for regional security and order in the context of a changing Indo-Pacific security architecture. Building on theories of strategic rivalry and regional order, this paper examines how border tensions, armed conflict, infrastructure modernization, and strategic alliances have adversely affected Indo-China relations. More specifically, this paper analyses India’s strategic policy shift towards greater engagement with Indo-Pacific constructs and multilateral security alliances. Through a qualitative method by analyzing primary and secondary sources such as governmental reports, policy addresses, and the academic literature on the matter, this paper proposes that the India-China relation has embarked on a “managed strategic rivalry” stage where competition is coupled with interdependence and cooperation is unlikely to reign as in the pre- Galwan era. This study aims to contribute to ongoing academic debates in Asian geopolitics by examining how India-China relations are transforming regional power dynamics and shaping the future of the Asian Regional Order.

India-China Relations, Galwan, Strategic Rivalry, Indo-Pacific, Regional Order.

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