The Confidence-Competence Paradox in Nigerian Physics Education: A Quantitative Analysis of Efficacy-Achievement Dissociation

This study examines the confidence-competence paradox in Nigerian secondary physics education, where student self-efficacy and academic achievement are systematically decoupled. A quantitative cross-sectional design was employed with a sample of Senior Secondary School (SS2 and SS3) physics students drawn from 12 schools in Delta State, Nigeria (N = 176; Mage = 16.2 years, SD = 0.9). The Physics Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (PSE-Q) and a researcher-developed Physics Achievement Test (PAT) served as primary instruments. Pearson correlation analysis revealed a near-zero, statistically non-significant association between efficacy and performance (r = .046, p = .549), departing markedly from international benchmarks of r = .33 to .52. Hierarchical multiple regression demonstrated that environmental factors (infrastructure and classroom climate) and instructional practices together accounted for 52.2% of the variance in self-efficacy (R² = .337 for Block 1; ΔR² = .185 for Block 2), yet these same domains accounted for only 15.6% of variance in achievement (R² = .089 for Block 1; ΔR² = .067 for Block 2), and teacher-centered instruction was associated with reduced rather than enhanced performance. No significant sex differences were observed (p = .599). The findings are interpreted through a Three-Stage Competence-Translation Model, which extends Social Cognitive Theory to resource-constrained, non-Western educational contexts. Implications for pedagogy, infrastructure investment, and national science education policy in Nigeria are discussed.

science self-efficacy; physics achievement; confidence-competence paradox; Social Cognitive Theory; Delta state

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