Scenario Planning and Organizational Response in Changing Business Environment.

Scenario Planning and Organizational Response in Changing Business Environment.

Yusuf Danzaria¹, Dr. Abdullahi S. Araga (PhD)², Dr. Nnenna N. Chukwuma (PhD)³

¹Principal Investigator, National Open University of Nigeria, Gombe, Nigeria

²Main Supervisor, National Open University of Nigeria Abuja, Nigeria

³Co-Supervisor, National Open University of Nigeria Abuja, Nigeria

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.803284S

Received: 28 August 2024; Accepted: 30 August 2024; Published: 27 September 2024

ABSTRACTS

The paper has investigated how can scenario planning help organizations anticipate and prepare for future changes in the business environment. The paper used funnel approach to investigate the scenario planning from global, Africa and Nigeria based on Developmental Configuration Approach. The model paper sought to build a theoretical framework that predict relationships between concepts. The conceptual model describes issues that should be considered in the study. This model paper contributes to existing knowledge by delineating an entity, its goal being to detail, chart, describe, or depict an entity and its relationship to other entities.

INTRODUCTION

Globally, businesses are rapidly changing driven by the rise of new technologies, innovations, pandemic, digitization, demographic changes and new environmental policies. These disruptive forces challenge companies to adapt their operations and strategies, and maximize profits. Businesses have been disrupted and revolutionized by new technologies and innovations. Due to a combination of bad forecasting and multiple disruptive technologies, many of the small, medium and large scale businesses are under remarkable pressure, some of them had to rethink their distribution strategies and even their whole business models (Rick, 2018).

However, the rapid pace of complex change in the wider environment within which all organizations operate means that a reliance on trend analysis and projection is no longer enough to guarantee future success. The UK-based Saïd Business School’s Oxford Scenarios Programme (OSP) (see www.sbs.ox.ac.uk) names this wider landscape the ‘contextual’ environment (Samira & Anca, 2018). It may also be known as the macro or external environment. Its unpredictable and unstable nature is described by the OSP as ‘TUNA conditions’, meaning turbulent, uncertain, novel, and ambiguous. Another common description is VUCA –volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (Tovar, 2016). In these circumstances, businesses can no longer rely on the ‘predict and control’ approach to strategy. This is as true for all SMEs worldwide, with no organization immune to the wider uncertainties driven, for example, by geopolitical and economic turmoil and the pervasive impact of technology on societal structures and social norm.

During pandemics (COVID-19 as example), businesses could not deliver their products and services through traditional channels because of required government shutdowns that resulted in employees being furloughed or terminated (Donthu & Gustafsson, 2020). Company leadership had not considered the possibility of a pandemic causing extreme disruption to daily business operations. In an April 2020 survey of 99 CFOs and financial leaders, Gartner, Inc. found that 42% of CFOs had not incorporated a second wave of outbreak into their financial scenarios, and 44% were not sure how employees would return to their normal office or facilities schedule (Gartner, 2020a). In a survey of 172 human resource leaders, Gartner, Inc. found that 52% of business operations surveyed were continuing at a reduced level to minimize costs (Gartner, 2020b).

Organizational focus was on surviving, but businesses need to strategize for the future (Scoblic, 2020). Kopp, Chief of Research for Gartner, reported that businesses’ most important priority was understanding the future of work (Gartner, 2020b).

Dwelling down to Africa Nigeria in particular business environment has undergone significant changes, necessitating scenario planning and organizational response. The country’s military rule for decades posed a volatile environment, requiring businesses to adapt to policy changes, political instability, and economic downturns. Nigeria’s oil booms and busts have influenced scenario planning and organizational response to changing business environments. As Africa’s largest oil producer, businesses must adapt to market volatility to maintain economic stability. Nigeria’s diverse ethnic and religious tensions have impacted business environments, requiring companies to develop strategies to adapt to changing business environments and potential conflicts. Nigeria’s military rule, oil booms, ethnic tensions, and religious tensions require scenario planning and organizational response for companies to thrive in changing business environments (Nigeria Development Update (NDU), 2022.

As aforementioned, the level and range of these uncertainties, creating a long-term strategic direction for an organization may appear futile for many leadership teams. Furthermore, the increasingly dynamic and uncertain operating environment may also explain why there has been a surge of interest in “futures thinking” in recent years (Schoemaker, 2022) with scenario planning now considered to be an essential management tool for our times.

British Medical Journal’s (2023) understanding of scenario planning is that it is a collaborative intervention that organizations can use to help make sense of a rapidly changing business and environment and to anticipate plausible shifts in business, thereby increasing preparedness for the future. It provides a structured and creative way to reflect on wider uncertainties in the external environment and formulate multiple, plausible narratives for future direction. These future narratives, along with the process undertaken to formulate them, generate new knowledge, improve thinking about the future, and help envision ways to act appropriately.

With its origins in military intelligence, scenario planning was developed as a tool for strategic planning by Pierre Wack in the 1970s at Royal Dutch Shell. It is commonly used by large corporations. Today, Shell boasts a sizeable scenarios team, including experts in energy, climate change, economics, socio-cultural change, political analysis, and competitive intelligence (CI; Shell, n.d.). This case study investigates how scenario planning can be instituted towards responding to changing business environment in an organizations. The broad objective was split into 3 sub-objectives;

1. Evaluate different scenario planning methodologies and frameworks.
2. Examine the factors that influence organizational responses on decision making and strategic outcomes.
3. Explore how scenario planning is adapted to address specific challenges such as innovation, risk management or long-term planning.

To cope with the changing dynamics, uncertainties and future trends for a business entities, a general research question has been developed: “How can SME design a new business model to create and capture value in 2030 by using scenario planning”? To answer the research question, I developed 3 sub-research questions which will be answered by a literature review;

1. How can scenario planning help organizations to anticipate and prepare for future changes in the business environment?
2. What are the key factors that influence organizational response to changing business environments?
3. How can organizations develop effective strategies for responding to changes in the business environment?

THEORETICAL FOUNDATION

Scenario Planning

The analysis of scenarios has been applied in different domains. To predict trends in technology, different methods have been proposed for the analysis of scenarios (Zartha et al, 2021). In the planning process, the technology portfolio is used to assist in the decision strategy and find resource allocation plans that fit the objectives of the organization. The analysis of scenarios is used to develop future conditions and thus facilitate strategic action procedures and propose visions for the future (Weng and Lin, 2015).

According to Macro (2019), scenario planning is a strategic planning method which can be employed to explore possible future situations and development paths, typically over a medium-term horizon. Compared with other strategic planning tools and techniques, especially those ones based on the extrapolation of existing trends and patterns and the use of quantitative, single-point forecasts, scenario planning accounts more explicitly for the complexity and uncertainty of the environment. Its aim is not to accurately predict the future, but rather to devise different possible pictures of the future so as to make policy-makers and business leaders more aware of the new potential trends, the key factors and players that may produce major shifts in the existing conditions, and the hitherto unknown opportunities and threats entailed by each anticipated future condition. This thus may help executives develop more comprehensive and robust strategies, capable of dealing with different contingencies (Macro, 2019).

Scenario Planning Method

Figure 1. A standard approach to scenario planning adopted from Andersen et al 2021

Uses of Scenario Planning 

Uses of scenario planning are numerous. However, scholars highlighted its uses as follows

As the global business environment faces uncertain times, scenario planning can assist companies with developing strategies for sustainability (Besty and Jack, 2021).

According to Scoblic (2020), scenario planning is widespread among governments and businesses for predicting the future and determining ways to think about the future. Unfortunately, many companies may only conduct one exercise in planning and then not utilize their findings in any meaningful way. In the case of uncertainty, organizations must set up an ongoing or continuous process of scenario planning to connect the present and future. Institutionalization of imagination and scenario foresight is necessary to move beyond short-term thinking that is often pervasive in organizations.

Ramírez et al. (2017) offered that predicting the future may not be the best approach to scenario planning, but developing competencies to deal with uncertainty is the best framework. By recognizing the part of uncertainty that is unpredictable and actively exploring the turbulence and uncertainty sources, the goal is to iteratively and interactively generate new knowledge and insights to help organizations re-perceive their circumstances.

Furthermore, Cornelius et al, (2005) opined that scenario planning served four purpose and they include: to present a background for the design and selection of strategies, to present managers with possible future environments, to identify what might happen and how the organization might react, and to combine qualitative and quantitative input.

Scenario’s underlying theories

Scenario Planning Outcomes

Scenario planning comes with a high cost due to the human capital that must be invested to develop creative alternatives (Besty & Jack, 2021). The organization must dedicate individuals and outside consultants who can offer creative suggestions on what future outcomes could look like based on the focal issue. The practice of scenario planning may not result in performance improvements as a human resource development tool but may enhance human learning in the organization (Besty & Jack, 2021).

One of the most important outcomes is organizational learning. Scenario planning is important because building learning organizations that can learn faster than the competition is a competitive advantage (Senge,1990). The best way to handle uncertainty is to include it in the planning process and explore “what-ifs” (Chermack et al., 2006). A learning organization creates continuous learning opportunities, promotes conversation and inquiry, encourages collaboration and team learning, creates systems to share learning, empowers people, connects the organization to the environment, and provides strategic leadership for learning (Chermack et al., 2006). Chermack et al. (2006) found the effects of scenario planning increased individual perceptions of the organizations’ ability to learn and adapt for six of seven constructs of organizational learning. A limitation of the study was the small sample size. Scenarios also promote learning by highlighting the reasons underlying a forecast with attention to uncertainty (Shoemaker, 1991). As a thinking tool and communication device, scenarios promote understanding of deeper forces and are more than high-low projections (Shoemaker, 1991). Learning can also occur by examining how competitors or other stakeholders behave in each scenario (Shoemaker, 1991). Organizations must be flexible, innovative, and adapt quickly to gain competitive advantage and remain sustainable (Senge, 1990).

Another outcome is that scenario planning shifts perceptions to include uncertainty in the planning process that can improve decision making (Chermack, 2011). When using scenario planning, the expectations for tomorrow will be fundamentally different with a variety of outcomes. The outcomes of scenario planning are to promote strategic thinking or to provide closure to decision making (van der Heijden, 2004). Cognitive biases occur more frequently when decision makers experience high environmental uncertainty (Hodgkinson et al., 1999). Meissner and Wulf (2013) examined the cognitive benefits of full application scenario planning with 252 graduate management students and found that scenario planning reduced framing bias and had a more positive effect on decision quality than other tools used in strategic planning.

Scenario planning can also be used to change organizational culture by adapting to changes in the environment (Korte & Chermack, 2007). Organizational culture can be described as a shared mental model. Scenario planning makes explicit mental models that support organizational reasoning and action (Korte & Chermack, 2007). Individuals act as members of their organizations, basing actions on their understanding of the organization’s norms, beliefs, and values (Korte & Chermack, 2007). The models can be challenged, resulting in new alternatives (Korte & Chermack, 2007).

Scenario thinking can lead to increased organizational creativity and innovation. Using the social theory of practice, Sarpong and Maclean (2011) examined three software companies that applied scenario thinking to four projects, which resulted in creative emergence with opportunities for innovation. Chermack et al. (2015) performed a quasi-experiment using a pretest-posttest design with 48 participants in the intervention group and in the comparison group. They found that six dimensions of a creative climate-increase in freedom, trust, idea-time, play/humor, conflicts, and risk – showed a significant increase for the group using scenario planning (Chermack et al., 2015).

METHODOLOGY

Developmental Configuration Approach (DCA)

The Developmental Configuration Approach is a qualitative methodology that focuses on scenario planning and organizational response in a changing business environment (Wilkinson et al, 2013). This approach offers several qualities that can be beneficial in understanding and navigating the complexities of the business landscape. Some of the key qualities of the Developmental Configuration Approach include;

1. Holistic Perspective: The approach takes a holistic view of the organization and its environment. It recognizes that organizations are not isolated entities but are interconnected with various external factors such as customers, suppliers, competitors, and regulatory bodies. By considering the entire system, this approach enables a comprehensive understanding of the business environment and helps in identifying potential scenarios and responses.
2. Long-Term Orientation: The Developmental Configuration Approach emphasizes long-term planning and strategy. It recognizes that the business environment is constantly evolving, and organizations need to anticipate future changes and develop appropriate responses. This approach encourages organizations to consider multiple scenarios and plan for contingencies, thereby enhancing their adaptability and resilience.
3. Scenario Planning: Scenario planning is a central component of the Developmental Configuration Approach. It involves the development of plausible future scenarios that reflect different potential outcomes and their implications for the organization. By considering a range of scenarios, organizations can prepare themselves for various contingencies, enabling them to make informed decisions and take proactive actions.
4. Organizational Learning: The approach recognizes the importance of organizational learning in responding to a changing business environment. It emphasizes the need for organizations to continuously acquire knowledge, update their skills, and adapt their practices. By fostering a culture of learning and experimentation, organizations can enhance their ability to identify emerging trends, anticipate changes, and respond effectively.

Overall, the Developmental Configuration Approach offers a qualitative methodology that combines scenario planning, organizational learning, and a holistic perspective to support organizations in navigating and responding effectively to changing business environments. Its qualities enable organizations to anticipate future challenges, develop strategic responses, and enhance their long-term competitiveness.

Theoretical Reasoning Approach (TRA)

Theoretical reasoning involves using deductive or inductive reasoning based on existing theoretical perspectives to guide decision-making and strategic planning (Sarpong & Maclean, 2011). However, in general, theoretical reasoning can be applied in scenario planning and organizational response by leveraging established theories, models, and frameworks to analyze and understand the dynamics of the business environment.

Figure 1: Share of scenario publications according to search engine

Source: Author’s Search

Figure 2: Share of scenario planning publication latest wise

Source: Author’s review

From the above graph, total of 189 articles were browsed and used for this work were, 104 of the articles dated 2006-2014 and considered recent by the researcher. Also, 52 out of the total article are considered to be more recent (dated 2016-2020) while 33 articles were most recent and dated 2021-2023.

Figure 3: Trend in publications related to scenario planning in business

Source: Author’s review

Figure 4: A pyramid showing the extent relevancies of the reviewed articles that contributed to the literatures of this study.

Source: Author’s review

TABLE OF LITERATURE REVIEW

RESEARCH DESIGN

Theory Synthesis

A theory synthesis paper seeks to achieve conceptual integration across multiple theories or literature streams. Such papers offer a new or enhanced view of a concept or phenomenon by linking previously unconnected or incompatible pieces in a novel way. It contributes to knowledge by summarizing and integrating extant knowledge of a concept or phenomenon.

Theory adaptation

Papers that focus on theory adaptation seek to amend an existing theory by using other theories. It develops contribution by revising extant knowledge—that is, by introducing alternative frames of reference to propose a novel perspective on an extant conceptualization.

Typology

A typology paper classifies conceptual variants as distinct types. The aim is to develop a categorization that “explains the fuzzy nature of many subjects by logically and causally combining different constructs into a coherent and explanatory set of types. They demonstrate how variants of an entity differ, and hence organize complex networks of concepts and relationships, and may help by recognizing their differing antecedents, manifestations, or effects. It contributes to knowledge by contribute through differentiation—distinguishing, dimensionalizing, or categorizing extant knowledge of the phenomenon, construct, or theory in question. Typologies reduce complexity.

Model

In the context of scenario planning, a model refers to a representation or framework that helps structure and guide the process of developing and analyzing scenarios. Hence, the following model is adopted;

Figure 2: Scenario theoretical model adopted from Besty & Jack, 2021

The above model showed that scenarios linked to learning, learning linked to mental models, mental models linked to decisions, and decisions linked to performance, which was supported by academic publications (Besty & Jack, 2021).  The links in the model addressed the sequential laws for Durbin’s theory-building.

JUXTA POSITIONING OF THE CONCEPTS AND THEORIES TO PRODUCE NEW KNOWLEDGE, CONCEPTS OR THEORIES OR TYPOLOGY OR MODEL

Some potential juxtapositions and their potential outcomes:

1. Integrating Complexity Theory and Strategic Management:

By combining concepts from complexity theory, which explores the non-linear and interconnected nature of systems, with strategic management theories, new insights can emerge regarding how organizations can navigate complex and uncertain environments using scenario planning.

This integration may lead to the development of a new typology or model that emphasizes adaptive strategies, resilience, and the ability to leverage complexity as a competitive advantage.

2. Merging Narrative Theory and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty:

Bringing together narrative theory, which highlights the power of storytelling, with theories of decision-making under uncertainty, can offer fresh perspectives on how scenarios can influence decision-making processes.

This juxtaposition may result in a new framework that focuses on the cognitive and emotional aspects of decision-making, incorporating elements such as narrative transportation, framing, and cognitive biases.

3. Combining Environmental Scanning and Dynamic Capabilities:

Integrating the concept of environmental scanning, which captures the external environment’s key trends and uncertainties, with theories of dynamic capabilities, which explore an organization’s ability to adapt and change, can lead to an enhanced understanding of scenario planning’s role in building organizational agility.

This combination may produce a model that emphasizes the continuous monitoring of the external environment, the development of sensing capabilities, and the rapid mobilization of resources to capitalize on emerging opportunities or mitigate threats.

4. Synthesizing Strategic Implications and Organizational Learning:

According to Jose et al, (2022), Synthesizing the analysis of strategic implications derived from scenario planning with theories of organizational learning can foster a deeper understanding of how organizations can use scenario planning to facilitate organizational change and innovation.

This synthesis may yield a typology or model that emphasizes the iterative nature of scenario planning, organizational sense-making, knowledge creation and transfer, and the development of a learning culture.

MAJOR CONTRIBUTIONS HIGHLIGHTED.

Scenario planning has made several major contributions to the field of strategic management and organizational decision-making. Here are some of the key contributions highlighted in the literature: managing uncertainties, Strategic Insight and Long-term Thinking, Challenging Assumptions and Mental Models, Enhancing Strategic Agility, Stakeholder Engagement and Alignment, Enhancing Risk Management, and Promoting Organizational Learning. These major contributions have positioned scenario planning as a valuable tool for strategic management and organizational decision-making. Its ability to address uncertainty, foster long-term thinking, challenge assumptions, enhance agility, engage stakeholders, manage risks, and promote learning has made it a widely recognized and utilized approach in various industries and sectors

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