The Role of Weather Anomalies in Shaping Investor Sentiment and Stock Market Performance: A Conceptual Analysis

The Role of Weather Anomalies in Shaping Investor Sentiment and Stock Market Performance: A Conceptual Analysis

Muhammad Shehryar*

Accounting Research Institute (HICoE), Universiti Teknologi MARA, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia

*Correspondence Author

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.90300044

Received: 16 February 2025; Accepted: 24 February 2025; Published: 28 March 2025

ABSTRACT

This conceptual paper presents a theoretical explanation for understanding the impact of weather anomaly on stock market dynamics and investor behavior. Weather anomalies, including unusual temperature variations, extreme precipitation, humidity, cloudiness, sunshine, wind speed, and severe weather events, can disrupt investors mood, emotions, feelings, and behavior, which are subsequently reflected in share market returns. Current paper starts with an ample review of prevailing literature on the impact of various weather-related factors upon investor behavior as well as equity markets, highlighting significant findings and methodological approaches while identifying gaps and inconsistencies. It then presents an enhanced conceptual rationalization that incorporates psychological and behavioral finance perspectives, providing a significant view of how investor sentiment and market reactions to weather anomalies may lead to abnormal returns. This framework challenges the assumption of strong market efficiency by suggesting that systematic and seasonal patterns in investor behavior, influenced by emotions, cognitive biases, and weather factors, can amplify the financial impacts of weather anomalies on equity markets. The paper also explores the practical implications of weather anomaly for investment strategies, risk management, and market regulation, accenting the necessity for adaptive tactics in optimal portfolio management. Finally, it outlines routes for upcoming research, advocating for empirical studies and investigate the underlying causes of weather anomalies. This paper aims to enhance the understanding of weather anomalies’ role in financial markets and contribute to the broader discourse on market efficiency and environmental finance. The findings are particularly relevant for investors, mutual funds, brokers, practitioners, policymakers, and regulators.

Keywords: Weather Anomaly, Stock Market, Behavioral Finance, Environmental Finance

INTRODUCTION

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (E.M.H) claims that investors could not make abnormal returns, rather normal returns will only be possible by following the market (Fama, 1970; Iordache, 2024). In the contradiction, shareholders are still capable to get the above-average returns due to some financial anomalies (Al-Khazali & Mirzaei, 2017; Steinborn, 2024), as the school of Behavioral Finance challenged the E.M.H that investors and markets do not consistently exhibit rational behavior; instead, psychological factors and investor behavior can influence decision-making and price volatility, leading to abnormal returns based on individual perceptions, moods, and sentiments (Kahneman, 1979; Shleifer, 2000; Fromlet, 2001; Shiller, 2003). So, it will be important for the investors to know about the impact of different financial anomalies on the behavior of investors and stock performance for better investment decisions in order to earn abnormal returns.

According to Shehadeh and Zheng (2023), a financial anomaly is an unusual or abnormal event in the financial market that lets investors make big profits by spotting different seasonal patterns. This goes against the well-known theory of standard finance. These anomalies demonstrate market inefficiencies since they alter investor psychology and allow them to achieve anomalous profits (Bassiouny et al., 2023). Financial anomalies were separated into technical, fundamental, and calendar or seasonal anomalies (Al-Khazali & Mirzaei, 2017). A seasonal calendar anomaly, which states that investors can earn huge returns by buying on certain calendar time with low prices and retailing on others time spans with high prices, is a prominent seasonal anomaly (Al-Khazali & Mirzaei, 2017; Steinborn, 2024). For instance, day of the week anomaly (Alberg et al., 2008), week of the month anomaly (Kohli & Kohers, 1992), month of the year anomaly (Aggarwal & Rivoli, 1989), turn of month (Shehadeh & Zheng, 2023), half-month effect (Tonchev & Kim, 2004), holiday effect (Yang, 2016), Halloween effect (Bouman & Jacobsen, 2002).

In addition to the aforementioned anomalies, a significant seasonal anomaly is the weather anomaly, which can also undermine the E.M.H. and induce inefficiencies in the share market through affecting the mind, attitude, emotions, and investment behavior of shareholders, akin towards the impact of temperature (Cao & Wei, 2005). Weather-related events may influence shareholder behavior in share prices, allowing shareholders to achieve extraordinary returns through acquiring equity in minimum-price periods and divesting in maximum-price periods. Academic examiners have investigated the influence of temperature (Floros, 2011), sunlight (Hirshleifer & Shumway, 2003), wind speed (Keef & Roush, 2017), and humidity on investor behavior (Howarth & Hoffman, 1984), discovering that meteorological factors (humidity, temperature, wind speed, cloudiness, sunshine) significantly affect investor behavior, ultimately impacting stock returns. Howarth and Hoffman (1984) observed that elevated humidity negatively affects investor sentiment and diminishes purchasing activity, ensuing in reduced values and returns. In low humidity, share returns turn optimistic as well as aggressive, thereby improving purchasing-behavior and finally increasing equity values or returns. This conceptual study is to explain and conceptualise the “weather anomaly” with the help of relevant prior literature by recommending future directions of research. In Table 1, the conceptual explanation of dissimilar weather anomalied are given in concise way as follows:

Table 1: Overview of Seasonal Anomalies

Source: Author has prepared by consulting the prior empirical literature

By understanding the behavior of investors and stock prices under the effect of different weather factors (weather anomalies), investors can earn the abnormal return by purchasing the share on low price and selling on high price. This conceptual study gives a theoretical explanation for understanding the impact of weather anomaly on stock market dynamics and investor behavior. Weather anomalies, including unusual temperature variations, extreme precipitation, humidity, cloudiness, sunshine, wind speed, and severe weather events, can disrupt investors mood, emotions, feelings, and behavior, which are subsequently reflected in share market returns. Present study is very beneficial theoretically and practically both. Theoretically, academic researchers will get to know about the new research domain for future to facilitate the different stakeholders. Practically, equity investors will have an ultimate guidance about the behavior and mechanism of weather anomalies by enabling them to make best investment decision. Further, this study is also interesting and beneficial for the mutual funds, brokers, practitioners, policymakers, and regulators.

The remainder of this research adheres to this framework. Comprehensive literature review of empirical studies. The argument and analysis section is followed by implications and discussion. The conclusion section concludes the paper.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Schwarz and Clore (1983) proposed the “information theory of mood”, concluding that mood influences our decisions-thoughts through affecting various life aspects. Numerous empirical research have examined mood-altering events and their effects on investment behavior as well as equity returns, including sport-games (Edmans et al., 2007) and societal-events (Nofsinger, 2005). Additionally, several studies examined the influence of sacred-events on attitude, including the Ramadan (Al-Hajieh et al., 2011; Ali et al., 2017), Eid-ul-Fitr (McGowan Jr & Jakob, 2010), Eid-ul-Addhaa (Akhter et al., 2015), Aashoura (Al-Ississ, 2010), Eid Rabbi-ul-Awal (Majeed et al., 2015), Jewish Holy days (Frieder & Subrahmanyam, 2004), Easter week holidays (Pantzalis & Ucar, 2014), and Islamic-events associated by herding-behavior (Balcılar et al., 2017; Gabbori, 2024), among others. Some studies indicate that some events positively influence mood, while others suggest that the same experiences negatively affect mood. This indicates that a positive mood yields favourable outcomes, while a negative mood results in unfavorable returns (Birru, 2018).

Weather Anomaly

The advent of behavioral finance has prompted significant interest in several meteorological factors (sunshine, temperature, humidity, cloud-cover) due to the potential impression upon mood and share values. Prior literature has demonstrated that the moods, feelings, emotions, and sentiments of investors significantly influence their mentality, hence affecting investment behavior and ultimately stock returns. Certain studies investigated the influence of mood on investing and risk decisions (Nofsinger, 2005), revealing both positive effects (Shu, 2010) and negative effects (Forgas, 1998). Moreover, limited study has investigated the influence of temperature, sunlight, and humidity on investor behaviour (Howarth & Hoffman, 1984; Saunders, 1993; Hirshleifer & Shumway, 2003; Cao & Wei, 2005). This is a widely recognised notion that meteorological conditions, including weather, temperature, sunlight, and cloud cover, influence agricultural outputs and agribusinesses, potentially augmenting or diminishing their productivity. Notably, these factors also affect the moods, sentiments, and emotions of individuals (investors) and stock prices (Hirshleifer & Shumway, 2003).

Mood significantly impacts our perception of the surroundings, and optimistic and adverse attitudes could direct towards the poor decision-making. Individuals habitually feature their personal-feelings to a mistaken cause, guiding towards erroneous evaluations. For instance, individuals report higher levels of happiness on sunny-days as compare to overcast days. The effect of sunlight upon people’s evaluations of enjoyment is reduced when they are prompted to consider the weather (Schwarz & Clore, 1983).

Moreover, a pleasant mood may stem from extrinsic factors (such as sunshine, temperature, or humidity), influencing investors’ purchasing decisions, hence augmenting equity demand and elevating share prices. The empirical literature has numerous research demonstrating that a cheerful mood influences decision-making, leading individuals to adopt an optimistic perspective. Likewise, individuals in positive moods experience greater life satisfaction (Wright & Bower, 1992), employ more efficient decision-making strategies by simplifying intricate data (Isen, 2000), adopt a low analytic perspective (Petty et al., 1991), exhibit increased reliance upon preceding information (Bless et al., 1996), and demonstrate enhanced intellectual tractability alongside impartial or positive behaviors (Isen, 2000). Conversely, individuals in negative moods exhibit more access to unfavorable information (Forgas & Bower, 1987) and heightened critical engagement (Sinclair & Mark, 1995).

Simultaneously, certain studies examined the influence of various meteorological factors on behavior. A considerable body of research examines the links between meteorological conditions and human behavior. For example, hysteria and apathy can manifest during heat (Wyndham, 1969), while extreme temperatures, whether hot or cold, diminish work performance (Pilcher et al., 2002). Additionally, extreme temperatures reduce individuals’ willingness to assist others (Schneider et al., 1980). Humidity, temperature, and sunlight significantly influence attitude, along-with heightened aggression observed in highest cold (Howarth & Hoffman, 1984). High levels of aggression are noted throughout both highest heat or cold (Baron & Ransberger, 1978), alongside hysteria, apathy, and aggression in severe cold conditions (Schneider et al., 1980).

Similarly, certain researchers examined the influence of sunlight on behaviour. For example, they discovered that a lack of sunlight contributes to despair and suicide (Tietjen & Kripke, 1994). Additionally, certain studies indicated their attention in sunlight as well as share valuations. Saunders (1993) investigated the influence of sunlight as well as cloudiness on the returns of the New York share market. The regression model revealed that index returns were adverse throughout cloudiness and positive during sunshine. This work served as a foundational enquiry of the affiliation amongst weather and share returns, receiving significant attention from both researchers and investors. Moreover, the research conducted by Kamstra et al. (2000, 2003) enriched the literature by examining the correlation amongst daylight, day-length, and share values. Subsequently, a significant research by Hirshleifer & Shumway (2003) built upon Saunders’ (1993) methodology and sought to investigate the influence of morning sunlight on the share returns of 26 major indices. Utilising daily market index data (1982-1997), they applied univariate regression, logit regression, and a joint test (nonparametric) on both city-specific and cross-city data, revealing that sunshine directly influences share returns, while nearly 25 out of 26 cities indicated that cloudiness adversely affects stock returns.

Cao and Wei (2005) utilised temperature as a meteorological anomaly, positing that it may influence mood. The study analysed the impression of temperature on share returns throughout eight global stock indices, utilising daily index and temperature data from July 3, 1962, to July 9, 2001. They identified an inverse association amongst temperature and share returns by the application of Z-Score as well as OLS regression. When temperatures decrease, investors exhibit increased aggression, resulting in elevated returns accompanied by high-risk tolerance. Conversely, when temperatures rise, investors display aggression characterised by apathy, leading to diminished returns and a tendency towards risk aversion due to indifference rather than assertiveness.

These feelings are often shaped by psychological fallacies that considerably affect investment decisions, rather than being substantiated by the available data (Shiller, 2015). The collective sentiment of investors can potentially disturb market equilibrium by affecting returns and stock prices (Goetzmann et al., 2015). In instances wherever a positive relationship exists amongst share prices and stockholder feelings, this is essential to assess investor sentiment to understand the impact of collective herding behavior on investing decisions (Shu, 2010).

ARGUMENTS AND ANALYSIS

A considerable prior empirical literature has focused on weather anomalies like sunshine (Hirshleifer & Shumway, 2003), temperature (Cao & Wei, 2005; Floros, 2011), wind speed (Keef & Roush, 2017), humidity (Howarth & Hoffman, 1984), and cloudiness (Symeonidis et al., 2010), which found that these weather-related factors can impact the moods, feelings, emotions, mental approach of shareholders and investing attitude or share returns ultimately (Wright & Bower, 1992; Rapach et al., 2013; Birru, 2018; Gao et al., 2020; Gabbori, 2024). So, investors can make abnormal returns by following the different weather seasons.

Nevertheless, the prior studies have some limitations and research gaps. For instance, a rare study focused on Syariah equity markets or Syariah investors regarding the examination of the impact of weather anomalies. Further, researchers conducted their studies mostly in developed countries, and developing countries have been ignored. Moreover, a plenty of researches checked the mood impacted by sacred-events, sport-games, societal-events, and weather-oriented variables (sunshine, temperature, humidity, wind speed, cloudiness), but a rare study empahised upon the the weather anomaly as different season windows (spring, summer, autumn, winter) by challenging the efficiency of the market. Notably, only a handful of studies have concentrated on the various stages of the economy, such as booms and crises, regarding the weather anomalies that require immediate attention from researchers to assist investors. Finally, prior research mostly employed the less advanced as well as only parametric tests (e.g., OLS regression, GARCH, ARMA-GARCH, etc.) and rarely employed the non-parametric tests, which provide a high robustness by giving more reliable results (stochastic dominance).

IMPLICATIONS AND DISCUSSION

The current conceptual paper centres on the conceptual elucidation of weather anomalies, offering practical and valuable insights for academic researchers, practitioners, and investors to understand market conditions through the application of previous empirical studies. It is evident that weather anomalies have been observed, like sunshine (Hirshleifer & Shumway, 2003), temperature (Cao & Wei, 2005; Floros, 2011), wind speed (Keef & Roush, 2017), humidity (Howarth & Hoffman, 1984), and cloudiness (Symeonidis et al., 2010), which have a strong impact on the moods, feelings, emotions, and sentiments of investors by influencing the investing behavior as well as stock returns ultimately (Gabbori, 2024). So, investors can make abnormal returns by following the different weather seasons, purchasing the stocks at low prices in different conditions of weather and then selling them at high prices in favorable weather conditions. For example, Howarth and Hoffman (1984) observed that elevated humidity negatively affects investor sentiment and diminishes purchasing activity, ensuing in reduced values and returns. This study examines the practical ramifications of these anomalies for investment strategies, risk management, and market regulation, highlighting the necessity for adaptive methodologies in portfolio management. The findings of this study are highly pertinent for stock investors, including both individuals and institutions, as well as mutual fund intermediaries, professionals, lawmakers, and authorities.

This study recommends checking weather anomalies in the share markets of developing countries for future research. Further, other weather anomalies like weather variations (spring, summer, autumn, winter) may be examined as well. Research on weather anomalies may focus on Syariah equity indices and shares, aiming to offer comprehensive support to Syariah stockholders. By considering the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, weather anomalies may be examined in different time phases to give complete guidance to shareholders and policymakers. It is further recommended that advanced and non-parametric tests (stochastic dominance, etc.) may also be employed to examine the weather anomalies..

CONCLUSION

Equity investors or shareholders seek to get abnormal profits by accurately forecasting stock prices, acquiring shares at a cheap value, and subsequently retailing them at a higher value (Steinborn, 2024). In this regard, after the advent of behavioral finance has prompted significant interest in several meteorological factors (sunshine, temperature, humidity, cloud-cover) due to the potential impression upon mood and share values. Prior literature has demonstrated that the moods, feelings, emotions, and sentiments of investors significantly influence their mentality, hence affecting investment behavior and ultimately stock returns (Gabbori, 2024). So, investors can make abnormal returns by following the different weather seasons.

This conceptual paper presents a theoretical explanation for understanding the impact of weather anomaly on stock market dynamics and investor behavior. Weather anomalies, including unusual temperature variations, extreme precipitation, humidity, cloudiness, sunshine, wind speed, and severe weather events, can disrupt investors mood, emotions, feelings, and behavior, which are subsequently reflected in stock market returns. This paper starts with a comprehensive review of prevailing literature on the effects of various weather-related factors on investor behavior and equity markets, highlighting significant findings and methodological approaches while identifying gaps and inconsistencies. It then presents an enhanced conceptual rationalization that incorporates psychological and behavioral finance perspectives, providing a significant view of how investor sentiment and market reactions to weather anomalies may lead to abnormal returns. This framework challenges the assumption of strong market efficiency by suggesting that systematic and seasonal patterns in investor behavior, influenced by emotions, cognitive biases, and weather factors, can amplify the financial impacts of weather anomalies on equity markets. The paper also explores the practical implications of weather anomaly for investment strategies, risk management, and market regulation, accenting the necessity for adaptive tactics in optimal portfolio management. Finally, it outlines routes for upcoming research, advocating for empirical studies and investigate the underlying causes of weather anomalies. This study aims to enhance the understanding of weather anomalies’ role in financial markets and contribute to the broader discourse on market efficiency and environmental finance. The findings are particularly relevant for investors, mutual funds, brokers, practitioners, policymakers, and regulators.

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