Wagner’s Theory and Good Governance: A Comparative Analysis of Nigeria’s Second and Fourth Republic Regimes

Wagner’s Theory and Good Governance: A Comparative Analysis of Nigeria’s Second and Fourth Republic Regimes

Peter Chika UZOMBA

Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Federal University Lokoja, Kogi State, Nigeria

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.9020353

Received: 14 February 2025; Accepted: 19 February 2025; Published: 24 March 2025

ABSTRACT

Traditionally, good governance gives effects to the law of increasing state activities for the purposes of ensuring short term benefit (economic growth) and long term benefit (economic development). However, the Nigerian state is very far from reaping the benefits. This therefore raises concerns on the inherent efficacy of Wagner’s theory in offering opportunities that guarantee and improve on the general welfare of the Nigerian society. Consequently, this study sets out to compare the exactitude of Wagner’s theory and good governance in the Nigeria’s second republic (1979 – 1983) and the first five years of fourth republic (1999 – 2003). In specific terms, it seeks to empirically establish how increase in government capital and recurrent has exacted impacts on and related with the effective and efficient quality of good governance, proxied by eight development indicators, GDP per capita, literacy rate (secondary school enrolment), national poverty, life expectancy at birth, and exchange rate. Descriptive statistical tools, correction, coefficient of variation and econometric method of ordinary least squares are employed. Comparatively, Wagner’s theory did not have exact impact on good governance indices as measured in this study. It is recommended that government should settle in programmes and policies used in the second republic.

Keywords: Wagner’s Theory, Good Governance, Economic Development Indicators, Republic, Social Welfare

JEL Classification: D63, E24, H11, H51, H52, I11, I21, I31

INTRODUCTION

The process of nation-building and nation branding is a function of the process of nation creation through republican activities. For a people to have a nation built on the basis of socio-cultural-political configuration they have to be conscious of their autonomy, unity and particularly, interests. This is why a nation-state is built upon the supreme power held by the people and their elected representatives. This is why the nature of a country, the public institutions, effectiveness of economic policies and good governance, is germane to the study of republican state – which presupposes that a republican government should be accountable to the people. In this sense Dhikru and Akinola (2019) argue that the responsibility to fulfil the end of the social contract of republic includes more fundamentally, service to the people and society.

A republican government has the responsibility to ensure equality and promote fundamental human rights (Heyman, 2014). This is why the “Bill of Rights” as cited in the report of United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2007) insists that government is not expected to do little but to engage in so much responsibility with the aim of ensuring an upward movement of socio-economic status of the society. This is good governance people’s arrangements that determine how a state is structured, public decisions are made and how public actions are carried out for the purpose of guaranteeing ‘return on investment in republic’

Treating republic as a way of upholding civic virtue that serves the interests of the entire citizens and guarantee social welfare through the precepts of good governance is an art of return on investment in republic. This is because, traditionally, the aspiration of the people has always been to reap the benefits of good governance – which is christened return on investment in republic. By a way of reflection, Maizatul, Alam, and Said (2016) argue that good governance is the processing of legitimizing, building and upholding, with all sorts of jealousy, the trust of citizens. Hence people In doing this, a good government is expected to ensure there is delivery of services to the people through employing good governance principles in the public sector affaires.

Within the foregoing context, government is expected to initiate and pursue with vigour, economic programmes and policies that would guarantee adequate return on investment in republic through enthroned good governance. Such return on investment in republic is summed up economic growth and development as enshrined in the aspiration of the people. Consequently, it is argued that good governance gives effects to the law of increasing state activities for the purposes of ensuring short term benefit (economic growth) and long term benefit (economic development) at any time, for the people that enthrone republic.

However, the Nigerian state is very far from reaping any of such benefits. According to Mimiko (2010), the Nigerian state has degenerated to the point where it is unable to provide minimal social security for its vulnerable population. Dhikru and Akinola (2019) posit that over the decades, there has been a recurrent and sustained argument that the Nigerian state, like its counterparts in Africa and other countries of the developing world, underperforms due to lack of state capacity to deal with the contemporary complexities of governance; hence negating the efficacy of good governance in bringing desired return on investment in republic.

This state of affairs leaves one with great wonder on the efficacy of Wagner’s theory whose thesis argues that public expenditures increase as real income per capita of the nation increases. This ultimately focuses on the economic progress or development of a nation which elicits the expansion of an economy through increase in state activities. In addition, the theory states that the share of government expenditure in GNP will increase with economic development; many associated empirical studies substitute GNP with GDP (Wagner & Weber, 1977, cited Marzanna, Ryta, Kargol-Wasiluk, (2020). The continuous backwardness of the Nigerian state gives one a cause for a deep reflection on the exactitude of Wagner’s theory and good governance. In fact, as indicators for measuring good governance one wonders what have been the statues of GDP per capita, literacy rate, national poverty, life expectancy rate, and exchange rate. Their performances have been so appalling in the face increased state activities via increase in government expenditure in both second republic and first five years of the fourth republic.

Arouse by the poor state of economic growth and development in Nigeria, this paper seeks to provide empirical answers to this question: In the face of increased state activities through increase in government expenditure, what has been the performance of GDP per capita, literacy rate (measured as secondary school enrolment), national poverty, life expectancy rate and exchange rate in the Nigeria’s second republic (1979 to 1983) and first five years of the fourth republic (1999 to 2003). This is the crux of this paper. The rest of the paper proceeds as follows: section two presents some stylized facts on the Nigerian economy in two segments – second and fourth republics. The review of literature is the focus of section three, while the methodological approach to the analyses of the paper is discussed in section four. Section five presents and interprets the empirical results, whereas the conclusions and recommendations are given in section six.

Stylized Facts on Returns on Investment in Republic in the Nigerian Economy

Table 2.1: Stylized on Facts on Returns on Investment in Second Republic in the Nigerian Economy

Source: World Bank, 2017, Statistical Bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria, 2017, National Bureau of Statistics, 2017,

Table 2.2: Stylized Facts on Returns on Investment in Second Republic in the Nigerian Economy.

Source: World Bank, 2017, Statistical Bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria, 2017, National Bureau of Statistics, 2017

LITERATURE REVIEW

Theoretical Literature

This study on a comparative analysis of Wagner’s theory and good governance between the Nigeria’s seconds and fourth republic is hinged on Wagner’s theory of rising public expenditure. The theory argues that the development of modern industrial society would give rise to increasing “political pressure for social change” and call for increased allowance for social consideration in the conduct of industry” (Musgrave and Musgrave, 2006: 114). In consequence, the implications of this theory is that as the public sector continues to expand, though, increase in public expenditure, the economy is expected to have its share measured in terms of absolute growth, growth in relation to gross domestic product, gross national income, per capita income, level of good governance, quality and increased human capital development index, healthy and quality population, technical change, and socio-political factors.

Contextually, the theory argues that rising public expenditure knows no bounds in stimulating economic and socio-political activities that guarantee adequate benefits for the people who through performing their constitutional obligation enthrone republican state, expected to, in retune, enthrone good governance. Adagbabiri and Okolie (2019) argue that the theory of rising public expenditure forms the fabric and foundation upon which good governance must be run with a clear prospective for achieving national development, especially in heterogeneous societies. This syllogism brings to fore the fact that traditional denominator for weighing the activities of good governance is the extent to which the socio-economic welfare of the peoples is guaranteed – which is measured in general term as returns on investment in republic – measured by means of pleasant performance in the induces of human capital; for instance, GDP per capita, quality, affordable and accessible education, reduction in national poverty, increase in expectancy at birth, and reduction in the relative rates at which Nigeria is exchanged with other currencies. Following the presupposition of the theory, it could be implied that any republican state that fails to good governance that would guarantee maximization of social welfare could be said to be a sham; for the reason that well democratically constituted republic that adhere to basic tenets of democracy should be able to produce good governance that gives popular expectation of achievement of socio-economic objectives of the state. It is on this premise that the theoretical framework of the study is structured thus:

“Wagner’s theory posits that rising public expenditure leads to increase in the activities of the state (including political, social, cultural, economic), leading to constitution of institution for enthronement of democratic republican state that will guarantee good governance, ensure maximization of social welfare and achievement of economic growth and development”.

It is therefore argued that enthronement of a republican state is a function of people’s mandate with an expectation that such governance would yield good returns by providing social amenities and conducive macroeconomic environment that would engender economic growth and development. This argument is premised on the fact that election, as the process of instituting republican government, should be seen and regarded as investment made through ballot (vote) – which is referred to as a proxy public good. This suggests that returns on such investment should reflect the qualities of public goods that should not preclude voters from dividends of good governance. In other words, the dividends of good governance should be non-excludable, non-exhaustible, non-divisible and non-rivalry for all and sundry. It is for this reason that one could say that the process of instituting a republican state through ballot is essential because it has the ability to push a country’s democracy to function in a fair and equal manner. This is because power of government is given and help by the people – as such government is expected to serve the interest (common welfare) of the people through good governance mechanism. It is upon this syllogism that the theoretical framework is that increased-state-activities leads to government-expenditure – good-governance – increasing return-on-investment – economic growth and development; as framed in the diagram below:

Figure 4.1: Wagner’s Theory Sensitivity of Good Governance, Economic Growth and Development

Source: Author’s Design, 2023.

Review of Empirical Literature 

John, Helliwell, Haifang, Shawn, and Shun (2018) did a study on empirical linkages between good governance and national well-being. The study used annual subjective life evaluations from 157 countries 2005–2012 demonstrate strong empirical linkages between government quality and national happiness. It argued that changes in governance quality within a policy-relevant time horizon have led to significant changes in national happiness. The most significant new finding is that changes in governance quality within a policy-relevant time horizon can lead to significant changes in the quality of life. For example, the ten most-improved countries, in terms of changes in government service delivery quality between 2005 and 2012, when compared to the ten most-worsened countries, are estimated to have average life evaluations higher by 0.4 points on a 0 to 10 scale. The results also confirm earlier findings that service delivery quality generally dominates democratic quality in supporting better lives until delivery quality has reached sufficient levels. The situation changes as development proceeds, with democratic quality showing a positive influence among countries that have already achieved higher quality of service delivery.

Top of Form

Maizatul, Alam, and Said (2016) empirical assessed the good governance in Malaysia and argued that to improve the trust of citizens and delivery of services, employing good governance principles in the public sector is very crucial. Despite efforts to improve service delivery, criticisms and complains toward public services remain evident. This study aims to assess the status of good governance practices in the public sector of Malaysia. Primary data were collected from the responses of 109 department heads under 24 federal ministries to a survey questionnaire. Respondent perception of good governance practices was measured using a seven-point Likert scale and analysed by descriptive statistics and path measurement modeling. Standard diagnostic tests were also conducted to check the reliability of the data and model. Results indicated that nine factors were significant in the measurement of good governance practices. However, very few people in the public sector of Malaysia practice fraud control, which is at the lowest intensity. Among the service groups, the engineer group practiced good governance at the highest level, whereas the health service group practiced good governance at the lowest level. Therefore, still there are scopes available to improve good governance systems to become more reliable and efficient public sector in Malaysia. Findings of the study will help policy makers improve the efficiency of the public sector of Malaysia and other countries.

Method of Study

This study adopted ex-post facto research design and sourced secondary data from World bank, National Bureau of Statistics and CBN Statistical Bulletin on the study variables from 1979 – 1983 for Nigeria’s second republic (NSR) and 1999 – 2003 for the first five years of Nigeria’s fourth republic. In line with the objectives of the study, the functional or theoretical relationship is presented on the argument that the essence of republic is to enthrone good governance through increase in state activities, stimulated by increase in government expenditure. Following this argument, it is therefore argued that good governance is a function of the proposition of Wagner’s theory measured in terms of government expenditures. Thus the functional relationship is cast thus:

GGN = (WAT)                                                                                                                        3.1

Note that GGN is proxied by the benefits of republic – measured in terms of increase in GDP per capita (GPC), increase in literacy rate (measured in terms of secondary school enrolment – SSE), reduction in national poverty (NAP), life expectancy at birth (LEB), and exchange rate (EXR). On the other hand, from the proposition of Wagner’s theory, increase in state activities is done or achieved through government expenditure which is classed into capital (GCE) and expenditure (GRE). In line with this, the functional relationship is extended as follows:

GPC = f (GCE, GRE)                                                                                                             3.2

SSE = f (GCE, GRE)                                                                                                              3.3

NAP = f (GCE, GRE)                                                                                                             3.4

LEB = f (GCE, GRE)                                                                                                              3.5

EXR = f (GCE, GRE                                                                                                              3.6

From the functional relationships are transformed into econometric model as given thus:

Table 4.1: Econometric Model Estimation of the Relationship between Wagner’s Theory and Good Governance in the Nigeria’s First and Fourth Republic

Source: Author’s Compilation, 2023.

Where:

GPC = GDP per capita, SSE = Secondary School Enrolment, NAP = National Poverty, LEB = Life Expectancy at Birth, EXR = Exchange Rate, GCE = Government Capital Expenditure, Government Recurrent Expenditure, a_0, λ_0, ƙ_0, Ʊ_0, Ώ_0, ƴ_0, ƀ_0, Ɣ_0, ɠ_0, χ₀ = Constants for equations 3.7 – 3.16, a_1, λ_1, ƙ_1, Ʊ_1, Ώ_1, ƴ_1, ƀ_1, Ɣ_1, ɠ_1, χ₁ = Slopes of GCE for equations 3.7 to 3.16; ƴ_2, ƀ_2, Ɣ_2, ɠ_2, χ₂ = Slopes of GRE for equations 3.7 to 3.16; μ = Stochastic term for equations 3.7 to 3.16; t = time series data dimension; i = Nigeria’s Second Republic (NFR); ii = Nigeria’s Fourth Republic (NFR).           

Apriori Expectations = > 0;  > 0;  < 0;  > 0;  < 0.

From the theoretical expectation, the methods of data analysis employed descriptive statistical methods, correlation matrix and ordinary least square regression method. In order to determine the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean, coefficient of variation (CoV) was employed with these benchmarks: CoV < 10 is very good, 10 – 20 is good, 20 – 30 is acceptable, and CoV > 30 is not good.

EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Table 5.1: Descriptive Statistics Result of the Comparison of the Relationship between Wagner’s Theory and Good Governance in the Nigeria’s Second and Fourth Republic

CoV: Coefficient of Variance: Addition of the values of SD and divided by the values of mean.

Source: Author’s Computation, 2023.

As presented in table 5.1, the comparative descriptive statistical result of the relationship between Wagner’s theory and good governance in the Nigeria’s second and fourth republics. The result revealed that government capital expenditure fared between in the fourth republic than the second republic. Government recurrent expenditure also was higher in the fourth republic than it was in the second republic. Despite this trajectory, GDP per capita fared between in the second republic than we had in the fourth republic. Secondary school enrolment was marginally better in the fourth republic than it was in the second republic, national poverty higher in the second republic than we had it in the first five years of the fourth republic. Though we had more government expenditures in the first five years of the fourth republic than we had in the second republic, but life expectancy at birth is almost at par within the distinct periods of review. Exchange rate was far much lower in the second republic than the period of NFR. Within the periods of study, all the values of coefficient of variance are high – suggesting that the magnitude of deviations between the values is high. This is not surprising because the interval between the NSR and NFR is approximately 20 years. Though they fall within the “good” threshold of scaling coefficient of variation, but the value of GPC – which is less than 2 – supports the claim that GPC performs in the NSR than the NFR period.

Table 5.2: Comparative Correlation Matrix Result of the Relationship between Wagner’s Theory and Good Governance in the Nigeria’s Second and Fourth Republic

NSR = Nigeria’s Second Republic. NFR = Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

Source: Author’s Computation, 2023.

Table 5.2 presents the comparative correlation matrix result of the relationship between Wagner’s theory and good governance in the Nigeria’s second and fourth republic. From the result, it is evident that GPC is negatively and weakly related with GCE in NSR period; but negatively and strongly related with GCE in NFR period. GPC is negatively and strongly related with GRE in NSR period; but positively and strongly related with GCE in NFR period. SSE is positively and strongly related with GCE in NSR period; but negatively and strongly related with GCE in NFR period. SSE is negatively and weakly related with GRE in NSR period; but positively and strongly related with GCE in NFR period. NAP is positively and strongly related with GCE in both periods; positively and weakly related with GRE in NSR period; and negatively strong in relation with GRE in the NFR period. LEB is negatively and strongly related with GCE in both periods; positively and weakly related with GRE in NSR period, but positively and strongly related with GRE in the NFR. EXR is negatively and strongly related with GCE in both periods; negatively and weakly related with GRE in NSR period, and positively and strongly related with GRE in the NFR.

Table 5.3: Comparative Ordinary Least Squares Result of the Impact of Wagner’s Theory on GDP Per Capita in the Nigeria’s Second and Fourth Republic

Source: Author’s Computation, 2023.

As presented in table 5.3, it is evident that GCE negatively impacted on GPC in both periods. Therefore, in specific terms, it is instructive to say that one unit increase in GCE brought about  25.59 decrease in GPC in NSR. In a similar manner, one unit increase in GCE brought about 0.23 unit decrease in GPC; and GCE did not significantly impact on GPC in both periods. The coefficient of determination is greatly far better in the NFR than the second republic. With respect to GRE and GPC, it is revealed that GRE appeared with the right positive sign in NFR. This further indicates that as GRE increased by one unit, GPC decreased by 975.23 units in the NSR. However, in the NFR, as GRE increased by one unit, GPC increased by 0.4649. Akin to what we had earlier, GRE did not significantly impact on GPC in both periods (NSR and NFR).

Table 5.4: Comparative Ordinary Least Squares Result of the Comparison of the Impact of Wagner’s Theory on Secondary School Enrolment in the Nigeria’s Second and Fourth Republic

Source: Author’s Computation, 2023.

As presented in table 5.4, it is evident that GCE positively impacted on SSE in the NSR, but negatively impacted on SSE in NFR. In specific terms, it is instructive to say that one unit increase in GCE brought about  1.11 increases in SSE in NSR; on the other hand, one unit increase in GCE brought about 0.00 unit decrease in SSE in the NFR. This sums up to suggest that GCE did not significantly impact on SSE in both periods – as revealed by the probability values. The coefficients of determination are greater in the NFR than the NFR – both are high, though. With respect to GRE and SSE, it is revealed that GRE appeared with negatively in the NSR, but with a positive one in the NFR. It is indicative to argue that as GRE increased by one unit, SSE decreased by 1.38 units in the NSR. However, in the NFR, as GRE increased by one unit, SSE increased by 0.0045. Unlike what we had earlier, GRE did not significantly impact on SSE in NSR, but did in the NFR.

Table 5.5: Comparative Ordinary Least Squares Result of the Comparison of the Impact of Wagner’s Theory on National Poverty in the Nigeria’s Second and Fourth Republics

Source: Author’s Computation, 2021.

As presented in table 5.5, it is evident that GCE positively impacted on NAP in both periods. In specific terms, it is instructive to say that one unit increase in GCE brought about 0.55 increase in NAP in NSR and 0.0021 increase in NAP in the NFR. However, the probability values suggest that GCE did not significantly impact on NAP in both periods – though it has a high coefficient of determination in both periods. With respect to GRE and NAP, it is revealed that GRE appeared with a wrong positive sign in NSR, but with right negative sign in NFR. This indicates that as GRE increased by one unit, NAP increased by 0.2573 units in the NSR. However, in the NFR, as GRE increased by one unit, NAP decreased by 0.0064. This follows the expectation of the theory. Again, GRE did not significantly impact on NAP in both periods.

Table 5.6: Comparative Ordinary Least Squares Result of the Comparison of the Impact of Wagner’s Theory on Life Expectancy at Birth in the Nigeria’s Second and Fourth Republics

Source: Author’s Computation, 2021.

As presented in table 5.6, it is evident that GCE negatively impacted on LEB in both periods. In specific terms, it is instructive to say that one unit increase in GCE brought about 0.45 decrease in LEB in NSR and 0.0004 decrease in the NFR. However, the probability values suggest that GCE did not significantly impact on LEB in both periods – though it has a high coefficient of determination in both periods. With respect to GRE and LEM, it is revealed that GRE appeared with the right positive sign in both periods. This indicates that as GRE increased by one unit, LEB increased by 0.5431 units in the NSR and 0.0020 in the NFR. From the probability values, it could be discerned that GRE did not significantly impact on LEB in NSR, but did in the NFR.

Table 5.7: Comparative Ordinary Least Squares Result of the Comparison of the Impact of Wagner’s Theory on Exchange Rate in the Nigeria’s Second and Fourth Republic

Source: Author’s Computation, 2021.

As presented in table 5.7, it is evident that GCE negatively impacted on EXR in both periods. In specific terms, it is instructive to say that one unit increase in GCE brought about 0.07 decrease in EXR in NSR and 0.017 decrease in the NFR. However, the probability values suggest that GCE did not significantly impact on EXR in both periods, has a low coefficient of determination in NSR, but a high one in the NFR. With respect to GRE and EXR, it is revealed that GRE appeared with the right positive sign in both periods. This indicates that as GRE increased by one unit, EXR increased by 0.0231 units in the NSR and 0.0575 in the NFR. From the probability values, it could be discerned that GRE did not significantly impact on EXR in both periods.

Concluding Remarks

On the account of the level of backwardness in Nigeria, one wonders Nigeria has even enjoyed return to republic. Arising from this, one further wonders what happens to the exactitude of Wagner’s theory in relation to good governance in Nigeria’s second and fourth republics. Being guided by the objectives of establishing the comparative impact of Wagner’s Theory (measured in terms of government capital and recurrent expenditures) on good governance measured in terms of GDP per capita, literacy rate (secondary school enrolment), national poverty, life expectancy at birth and exchange rate within the second and fourth republic in Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design, secondary data, descriptive statistical methods, correlation matrix and ordinary least square regression method were employed to execute this task.

Based on the analysis, the results of the study revealed that, as index for measuring the effectiveness of Wagner’s theory, GCE had better relationship with GPC in the NSR; while GRE related better in the NFR. In relation to literacy rate (proxied as secondary school enrolment), GCE performed better in NSR, but GRE related better in the NFR. On the relationship with NAP, GCE related better in NSE, while GRE related better in the NFR; in relation to LEB, GCE and GRE performed better in NFR, while exchange rate performed in the NSE in relation with GCE and GRE.

On the impact of Wagner’s theory on good governance indicators, the results revealed that GCE and GRE impacted better on GPC in NFR; but did not make significant impact on it in both periods – suggesting that Wagner’s theory did not have significant impact on GPC in both periods. GCE and GRE impacted better in NSR, but did not significantly impact on literacy rate (SSE) within the same period. Nonetheless, it had significant impact on SSE in the NFR. GCE and GRE impacted better in NFR, but did not impact significantly on NAP in both periods. GCE impacted better on LEB in NFR, but GRE impacted better on LEB in NSR. Nevertheless, GRE significantly impacted on LEB in the first five years of the NFR. GCE impacted better on EXR in NSR; unfortunately, none of the indexes of Wagner’s theory was significant in impacting on EXR in the two periods. For changes in government expenditure, as postulated by Wagner’s theory, to have effect on governance quality in Nigeria, there is need for government to, within a policy-relevant time horizon, invest more in human capital development – as this would ensure nation-building in constructing or structuring a national image through education.

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