Implication of Security Breaches on Nigeria’s Security Development: Examination of IPOB in South-East Geo-Political Zone

Implication of Security Breaches on Nigeria’s Security Development: Examination of IPOB in South-East Geo-Political Zone

OKOYE, Uche Patrick, Ph.D; OBAINOKE, Eromosele Felix; UGEGE, Joseph Eromosele, Ph.D; NWAKA-NWANDU, Okwukwe Chihurumnanya

Department of Public Administration, National Institute of Construction Technology and Management, Uromi, Edo State, Nigeria

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.803186

Received: 27 February 2024; Revised: 12 March 2024; Accepted: 16 March 2024; Published: 22 April 2024

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the consequences of security breaches on Nigeria’s security progress, specifically analyzing the actions of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in the south-east geopolitical zone. The study explores the various and complex outcomes of security breaches, taking into account issues relating to national security, economic ramifications, societal unity, considerations of human rights, international relations, governmental reactions, attempts towards peace-building, and initiatives for reconciliation. By conducting a thorough analysis, it highlights the interdependence of these consequences and the need for a comprehensive approach to effectively tackle security concerns. The paper emphasises the significance of dialogue, inclusive governance, economic advancement, community policing, safeguarding human rights, engaging with the media, diplomatic initiatives, investing in education and social services, and monitoring underlying factors in addressing security risks and fostering sustainable development. This paper seeks to enhance comprehension of security dynamics in Nigeria and provide insights for policy responses that promote peace, stability, and prosperity in the South-East region and the entire country, with a focus on the case of IPOB.

Keywords: Security breach, IPOB, Rule of Law, Human Security, socioeconomic growth/National development

INTRODUCTION

The increasing nature of terrorism, armed robbery, banditry, kidnapping, corruption and ethnic crisis in Nigeria constitute a devastating threat to security of life and property. Lack of security of lives and property of the citizenry is a severe hindrance to meaningful development. A climate of fear will frighten domestic and foreign investors. At the heart of many of these conflicts is access to resources and control over the distribution of benefits, (Obi, Usman and Adegbe, 2020). “This struggle for resources has led to a broad sense of insecurity, opportunism, and the pursuit of self- help strategies across the country. Some of the causes of violence include godfatherism, poverty, unemployment, money politics, corruption, and small and light arms proliferation, the rise of armed groups, religious based violence and election fraud. These issues represent dividing lines in communities in Nigeria”, (Obi, 2017a, p.1-10). The resultant situation has always been that of unprecedented level of insecurity and the manifestation are in form of terrorism, piracy, human trafficking, drug trafficking, cultism, kidnapping, armed robbery, advance free Fraud (419), assassination or political killings, thuggery, human sacrifice and ritual killings, communal strife and so on, (Awwal, 2020). The incident of kidnapping, sit-at-home order by Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) has affected human security and socioeconomic activities of the region and Nigeria’s image, it has also affected the region from attempt to develop a viable tourism industry as visitors are regularly warned by their countries to be wary of coming to Nigeria. Many would-be investors have also stayed away for fear of being kidnapped (Alexander, and Klein, 2019).

The multiplier implication of IPOB activities in the south-east geopolitical zone is that, it has resulted in the retarded growth and development of Eastern Nigeria. IPOB insecurity activities are an ill wind which blows no one any good. The region society has now been characterized and manifested in kidnapping that has become wide spread, promoting a climate of fear, impunity and insecurity in the country, (Saleh, 2015). These attacks are increasingly becoming wide spread and promoting a climate of fear, impunity and insecurity in the region thus affecting the development of tertiary institutions, food security and socioeconomic development. Inspite of all these crises the government has played deaf ear to the demands of IPOB for the release of Nnamdi Kalu to stop these wantom killing in the region, what could be the rationale for retaining Nnamdi Kalu after several court orders to release him, why would the federal government disobey court orders to keep Nnamdi Kalu? Could the arbitrary detention of Nnamdi Kalu be responsible for insecurity crisis unleashed by IPOB members?

Consequently, since IPOB is on the increase in South East Geopolitical Zone of Nigeria, there is a corresponding increase in the level of insecurity in the country. The Government and their security agents ranging from police, military personnel and special anti-robbery squad (SARS) have not achieved considerable results, and many security personnel have been killed by IPOB members who are sophisticatedly equipped, (Usman, Obi and Okeme, 2020). Most often, the security agents meet kidnappers unprepared and considering the fact that the kinds of guns these security officers possess are inferior, they stand the risk of losing their lives. Yet, it is within the jurisdiction of the government to make provision for the security of its citizenry. It is no longer an exaggeration to say that the Nigerian police are poorly trained and poorly equipped. And to worsen the situation, the government of today appears to have a mission different from the security of the people. Many have been raped, traumatized and killed without receiving any help from the government (Obi, 2017b). IPOB and human security at the local level have been ignored. Local view of IPOB has also been overlooked. These are what this study intends to investigate.

The following hypotheses were formulated to guide the study;

H0_1:   There is no significant relationship between politics of leadership exclusion and IPOB insurgency in South-East Geopolitical zone of Nigeria.

H0₂   Abuse of rule of law does not constitute challenges to security issues in south-east geopolitical zone in Nigeria.

H0₃   IPOB Sit-at-Home order in South-East Geopolitical zone in Nigeria does not affect national security and sustainable development in Nigeria.

METHODOLOGY

In this research, the case selection is security breach by IPOB and National security as an issue in International security. Trend analysis was considered more appropriate for the study. The estimation covered the period between 1990 and 2020. Time series data on flaunting of court order by DSS/Attorney general of the federation, Politics of leadership neglect, Sit-at-Home-Order, Impact on Human Security/National Development were collected from DSS, Police report, Judiciary, Published Journals, US/UK Security data base, (1990-2023). The data for this study was obtained from secondary sources.  South-eastern Nigeria was one of the initial 12 states created during the Nigerian Civil War, which later broke into the present Akwa Ibom State and Cross River State. South-east became the name of one of the six geo-political zones in the country in the 1990s consisting of Abia State, Anambra State, Ebonyi State, Enugu State and Imo State. The local language in this region is Igbo. Before the British colonial government, South-eastern Nigeria was home to many ethnic groups such as the Igbo, Ijaw, Ibibo, and Efik. These groups mostly had democratic systems of government and several kingdoms, such as Nir Akwa Akpa (Calabar), Aro Confederacy and Opobo which were huge influences in the region.

We begin by doing a descriptive analysis on the implication of security breaches on national development with focus on cause-effect relationship. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) is used to test for unit root so as to avoid the generation of spurious regressions that may arise from time series data analysis, followed by the autoregressive distributive lag model ARDL. An analytical tool was used in analyzing the data collected, the analytical tool consists of the use of Ordinary least square (OLS) if all the variables in the model are stationary at order, otherwise the    Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) or Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was use in order to establish the impact of monetary policy on price stability in Nigeria and E-view (10) econometric package was used.

The method of data analysis employed in this study is analytical tool which make use of the contemporary con-integration use in the analysis of data. This is premised on the fact that if variable are non-stationary the desirable properties of efficiency, consistency, and unbiasness will be lost if ordinary least square (OLS) is used in the estimation procedure adopted in this study is in three sequences, (Koutsoyiannis, 2004).

Model Specification

The main aim of this study is to empirically investigate the impact of security breaches on Nigeria development or security stability in Nigeria. Here, Security is used as a proxy for national instability. The functional form of the model can be stated as follows:

SB =S (PLN, SHO, FCDAGF) ——————————————————–1

Where:

SB = Security Breach

PIL = Politics of Inclusive Leadership

SHO = Sit-At-Home-Order

FCDAGF = Flaunting court orders by DSS and attorney general of federation

The mathematical form of the model is specified as follow:

SB = β₀ + β₁ PIL + β₂ SHO + β₃ FCDAGF —————————————-2

The stochastic form of the model is specified as follows:

SB = β₀+ β₁ PIL + β₂ SHO + β₃ FCDAGF + µ—————————————-3

Where:

β₀ = constant

β₁ = Coefficient of Politics of Inclusive Leadership

β₂ = Coefficient of Sit-at-Home-Order

β₃ = Coefficient of Flaunting court orders by DSS and attorney general of federation

µ = Stochastic term.

FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION

We begin by doing a descriptive analysis on the implication of security breaches on national development with focus on cause-effect relationship. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) is used to test for unit root so as to avoid the generation of spurious regressions that may arise from time series data analysis, followed by the autoregressive distributive lag model ARDL.

Table 1: Unit Root Test

Source; authors’ computation results on E-view 9, 2024.

Table 1 above shows the ADF unit root tests, we concluded that the variables are not stationary at levels therefore making use of the ordinary least square method on non-stationary time series data may lead to a spurious regression. This result is identified from comparing the absolute values of the ADF test statistics and the absolute values of the critical values at the 5% level of significance. At this point, the null hypothesis of the unit root for these variables is accepted.

The unit root null hypothesis is rejected at the 5% significance level for all series in first difference; this indicates that at first difference all the variables (SB, PIL, SHO, FCDAGF) which are subjected to this test are integrated of order one, I(1) and 1(0)

JOHANSON COINTEGRATION TEST RESULT

Source: authors ‘computation result on E-View 9, 2024

With this result a co-integration test is conducted using the Johansen Autoregressive model to obtain the long-run relationship between the variables.  The result in table 2 shows the estimated number of co-integrating equations using the Trace Test. It was concluded that there is at most one (1) co-integrating equation or vector between SB, PIL, SHO and FCDAGF at 5 percent level of significance.  Johansen co-integration test shows this by comparing the trace statistic values with the critical values, a result is chosen at the value where the trace statistic is more than the corresponding critical value. Here, it is clear that there is at most 1 co-integrating equation in the model with at trace statistic value of 57.76752 and a critical value of 29.79707 as well as the probability value which shows the likelihood of rejection with the value of 0.0074 at the 5% level of significance with this result, we reject the null hypothesis of no co-integration. This implies that an equilibrium relationship exists among the co-integrating variables and that no matter the fluctuations in the short-run, these variables have a tendency to converge to the equilibrium path in the long-run.  The trace statistic result is used to analyze our variables because trace statistic is said to be more robust to both skewness and excess kurtosis in residuals than the maximum-eigen value test. But however, the result from the max-Eigen statistics is also presented as follows;

Source: Authors’ computation result on E-view 9, 2024.

Table further shows the result of the estimated number of co-integrating vectors using the Maximum- Eigen value Test. The result shows that there is at most one (1) co-integrating equation in the model. The technique applied here is comparing the maximum Eigen-values with the critical values.  A result is chosen at the value where the maximum Eigen statistic is more than the corresponding critical value. Here, there is at most one (1) co-integrating vector with a maximum Eigen value of 54.55622 and a critical value of 21.13612 and the probability value which gives an indication to either accept or reject was at 0.0940at the 5% level of significance with this result, the null hypothesis that there is no co-integrating equation is rejected. Although, the trace statistic test and the maximum Eigen-value test show the same results of at most one (1) co-integrating equation. The maximum Eigen value test will be used to identify the number of co-integrating equations in our co-integration test because the trace test tends to deviate from normality.  This implies that the maximum Eigen value test will give a normal result regarding the number of co-integrating equations in the model that would converge towards the long run equilibrium path. The following result was extracted from the autoregressive distributive lag model of the impact of security breach on national development in Nigeria.

Table 2: Optimal ARDL Model Result

Source: Author’s computation using E-views 9. 2024.

The ARDL Bound Test

The ARDL bound test which establishes the existence of co-integration in the ARDL model is presented on Table 3.

Table 3: ARDL Bound Test Result

Source: Author’s computation using E-views 9, 2024.

The Bounds test result on Table 3 showed that the F-statistics value is 4.81. This value is greater than the upper bound critical values of I(1) at all the levels of significance. This result therefore showed the existence of long-run relationship in the model, and as such the study proceeded to conduct the short-run and long-run forms of the ARDL model.

The ARDL Long-Run Result

The ARDL long-run result on Table 4 shows the nature of the relationship among the variables in the long-run.

Table 4: ARDL Long-run Result

Source: Author’s computation using E-views 9, 2024.

The long-run coefficient of the level of security supply (LnFCDAGF) had a positive and statistically significant impact on security situation in south east geopolitical zone and human security and thus national development. Its coefficient states that for every unit increase in the rate of flaunting of court orders by DSS and attorney general of the federation in the release of Nnamdi Kalu (LnFCDAGF) will cause the security situation in the region to increase by 1.005 units. This indicates that lack of rule of law has significant impacts on the level of security situation and socioeconomic growth in the country. The probability value was highly statistically significant at the 5 per cent level. Which conform to our Apriori expectation of economic criteria

The coefficient of politics of inclusive leadership (LnPIL) however had a negative value going against apriori expectation. The coefficient indicates that for every unit percentage change in leadership neglect of sub-regions caused the feelings of resistance from IPOB to increase by 6 per cent. Its coefficient was however not statistically significant. The negative value of this variable is a reflection of the high level of ethno-regional and religious politics played in the country, and it is due to high patronage of premodial loyalty associated with it.

 The sit-at-home-order (LnSHO) variable in the model had a negative sign following Apriori expectations, but was however not statistically significant. Its coefficient states that, a unit increase in sit-at-home-order in south-east regional security issues, economic activities would reduce economic growth by 4 per cent. This variable represented the control variable in the model, and it shows that sit-at-home-order has dual effects on south-east geopolitical zone development, human security and National development in Nigeria.

The ARDL Short-run Result

The short-run model showed the short-run relationship that exists between agricultural output and economic growth in Nigeria. It is presented on Table 5.

Table 5: ARDL Short-run Results

Source: Author’s computation using E-views 9.5 Version, 2023/2024.

The error correction term (-.36) was not only negative but also statistically significant.  This also confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between real SB and its regressors. The ECM measures the speed of adjustment back to equilibrium following a shock in the system. In this case approximately 36 per cent of the disequilibria caused by shocks in the previous year got corrected in the current year. This showed a moderate speed of adjustment. The coefficient of insecurity breach (LnSB) in the short-run showed a positive relationship with South-east geopolitical zone human security growth and socioeconomic growth, but it was however only statistically significant.  The result indicated that in the short-run sit-at-home-order by IPOB had a positive impact on security and economic growth, in line with the long-run result. On the contrary, flaunting of court order by DSS and attorney general of the federation (LnFCDAGF) in the short-run however had a positive impact on security crises in the region and intensified IPOB activities, differing from the long-run result, but it was however not statistically significant, as its coefficient increased growth by a paltry 1 per cent. Security breach in the short-run followed apriori expectation in line with the long-run result, as it negatively affected overall development of south-east geopolitical zone, (Obi, and Uche, 2019).

Post-estimation Tests

Serial Correlation Test Result

The result of the Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test used to test for serial correlation is presented on Table 6.

Table 6. Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test Result

Source: Author’s computation using Eveiw 9 2024

The Breusch-Godfrey LM test on Table 6 accepted the null hypothesis of no serial correlation in the residual, since the probability of its observed R-squared value of 54 per cent was greater than the 5 per cent level. From the finding of this test, it can be concluded that the ARDL model does not have the problem of serial autocorrelation.

The ARDL Stability Test Result

The result of the Cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) and the Cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals (CUSUMSQ) tests are presented on Figure 1 and Figure 2 respectively.

Figure 1: CUSUM Plot

Figure 2: CUSUMSQ Plot

The plots of both the CUSUM and the CUSUMSQ statistic on Figures1 and Figure 2 respectively were all within the two straight line indicating that the ARDL model was stable.

The essential point of this study is to examine the impact of security breach on national development with emphasis on causes-effect variables within the south-east geopolitical zone of Nigerian economy. The findings from the result revealed that an increase in abuse in the rule of law and IPOB security threat can be curtail by allowing constitutionalism to operate. A security breach in Nigeria, specifically related to the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in the South-East geopolitical zone, might have substantial consequences for the country’s overall security and progress. Examining such situations entails the consideration of multiple factors:

Issues pertaining to the security and protection of a nation:

Security breaches perpetrated by organisations such as IPOB have the potential to jeopardise national security, as they may undermine the cohesion and sovereignty of Nigeria. The intensification of hostilities in the South-East area may redirect resources and focus from solving other urgent security concerns in various parts of the nation.

Economic Consequences:

Continuing security worries might discourage investors and impede economic progress in the impacted areas. Recurring disturbances and turmoil can have adverse effects on vital services, commerce, and infrastructure, hence detrimentally impacting the overall economy. Social cohesion refers to the degree of unity and solidarity within a society, where individuals and groups are bound together by shared values, norms, and goals. Security breaches have the potential to exacerbate social instability and undermine trust between various ethnic and regional factions. The relocation of communities and disturbances to daily routines might result in heightened social tensions and impede the formation of unified civilizations.

Issues related to the protection and promotion of human rights:

If security breaches are not effectively addressed, there is a risk of human rights violations occurring as a result. Maintaining stability requires a key balance between implementing security measures and upholding the rights of individuals.

Global diplomacy and interactions between nations:

Nigeria’s international reputation might be impacted by security concerns. It could result in heightened examination from global institutions and affect diplomatic ties with other nations.

Official government reaction:

The government’s reaction to security breaches is of utmost importance. An organised and efficient reaction is essential to tackle the underlying causes and reduce future dangers. Failure to address the concerns of marginalized communities may exacerbate tensions and contribute to prolonged instability.

Peacebuilding and reconciliation:

To effectively tackle the underlying reasons for security breaches, it is essential to adopt a holistic strategy that encompasses dialogue, development initiatives, and reconciliation activities. Facilitating inclusivity and redressing complaints can foster enduring stability and advancement.

CONCLUSION

Security breaches in Nigeria, namely those involving groups such as IPOB in the South-East region, have complex and varied consequences. An all-encompassing and comprehensive strategy, which takes into account the economic, social, and political aspects, is crucial for attaining enduring stability and growth in the nation. To comprehensively examine the consequences of security breaches in Nigeria, specifically regarding the IPOB crisis in the South-East geopolitical zone, it is crucial to provide a comprehensive set of recommendations that promote security, stability, and advancement.

Here are some crucial recommendations:

Interactions and the Settlement of Disputes:

Facilitate and prioritise productive dialogue between the government and relevant stakeholders, including IPOB, in order to peacefully address underlying issues. Engage in conflict resolution processes that involve individuals and organisations at the local, national, and international scales to promote understanding and reconciliation. The Principle of Inclusive Governance refers to the concept of ensuring the participation and representation of all individuals and groups in the decision-making processes of a governing body. Promote inclusive governance that authentically takes into account the ambitions and concerns of all ethnic and regional populations, particularly those living in the South-East. Encourage the integration of diverse viewpoints in the decision-making process to foster an environment of inclusivity and camaraderie.

Economic growth and employment generation:

Implement targeted economic development strategies in the South-East region to address socio-economic disparities and foster employment opportunities. To foster economic growth, provide a conducive climate that is advantageous for business and investment, consequently attracting both domestic and foreign capital.

Enhancements to Community Policing and Security:

Endorse community policing activities to enhance local security and cultivate trust in the bond between law enforcement and the people. Execute comprehensive security sector changes to improve professionalism, accountability, and effectiveness in response to security concerns.

Protection of Human Rights:

Ensure that security operations adhere to human rights norms to protect persons’ rights and prevent extrajudicial actions. Establish measures to enforce responsibility and oversight in order to immediately remedy any infringements of human rights.

Analyse and address the root causes:

Consistently assess the fundamental elements that contribute to security vulnerabilities and make appropriate adjustments to policies and programmes. Regularly engage with communities to understand their evolving dynamics and concerns, and adapt strategies to address emerging challenges. Consistently implementing these proposals can effectively resolve the security challenges associated with IPOB in the South-East region, consequently fostering the development and security of Nigeria.

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