Quantitative Political Analysis (POSC 508) Research Assignment Topic: An Analysis of the Impact of Voter Turnout on Electoral Outcomes in National Elections

Quantitative Political Analysis (POSC 508) Research Assignment Topic: An Analysis of the Impact of Voter Turnout on Electoral Outcomes in National Elections

J. William Nyanti

Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (Ibb) School Of International Relations, Graduate School, P.0 Box 1920, Capital Hill, Monrovia

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.905000388

Received: 03 May 2025; Accepted: 13 May 2025; Published: 18 June 2025

ABSTRACT

This work provides an overall perspective on contributions made by writers and researchers regarding voter turnout. Specifically, Franklin is one of the scholars whose work has been referenced, arguing that voter participation paves the way for institutional factors, particularly compulsory voting. This paper highlights the importance of compulsory voting and examines campaign strategies, including door to door canvassing and digital outreach. This framework helps readers understand how voter turnout shapes, electoral outcomes. This study also discusses voting on a regional basis and its impact on development in certain religious communities. Additionally, it emphasizes the need to prevent voting based on ethnic backgrounds, as such practices contribute to social divisions. These divisions hinder coordination and prevent the pursuit of a unified national agenda. Furthermore, the paper explores different steps and their characteristics in detail within a research framework. The researcher investigate the impact of voter turnout on electoral outcomes in national elections, analyzing how variations in participation rates influence the success of political parties and the overall legitimacy of democratic process. Using comparative data from multiple national elections across different democratic countries, the research explores patterns in voter demographics, turnout trends, and their correlation with shifts in political power. The findings suggests that higher often benefits certain political parties typically those with broader popular appeal or those representing underrepresented groups while low turnout can skew results in favor of more ideologically extreme or better organized minorities. The researcher highlights the role of institutional factors such as electoral systems, voter registration laws, and mobilization efforts in shaping turnout. This analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the dynamic relationship between civic engagement and democratic representation, offering insights for policymakers aiming to enhance voter participation and electoral fairness.

INTRODUCTION

The researcher explores how voter turnout impacts electoral outcomes, analyzing historical election data as the relevant theories identify key patterns and influencing factors. There is rough way to disabuse the mind of the people when the reality of turnout is visible and has been expressed by international observers.

This is one of the ways it can be measurable and activities are important doing more publicity and involving substantial number of the media institutions. It is a reality and imperative on every citizen of a nation to participate in the electoral process and there must be a voter turnout which serves as a fundamental aspect of democratic elections. It determines the legitimacy and it is a factor that proves the work of the elected government.

It also represent the level of political engagement in a society which significantly shape electoral outcomes. The extent to which citizens participate in elections influences the distribution of power among political parties, policy priorities, and the overall functioning of democracy. It is also viable to note that in many national elections, fluctuations in voter turnout have been linked to a shifts in political leadership and governance. It is believed that high turnout is generally seen as a sign of a healthy democracy and low turnout may indicate political disengagement, disenfranchisement, or systemic barriers to participation.

Significance of the Research

A high voter turnout strengthens the legitimacy of elected officials and the democratic institutions. That means, the citizens will put serious pressure on governance so as to move faster by implementing projects around the country. Understanding turnout trends will helps predict which political parties or candidates are likely to benefit from increased or decreased voter participation?

As such there will be a mechanism put in place for the citizen’s participation in every aspect of the society. More suggestions will be made on policy implementation findings from this research can inform electoral reforms and strategies to enhance voter engagement. These engagement will help to decentralized government development programs as it will help to enable the County have a stable economy. The program activities will be share among various districts to bring about human resources development.

Research Method

This research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative analysis of election data with qualitative insights from political science arena. Analyzing historical election data from National Election Commission (NEC) and to examine voter turnout and electoral outcomes. The researcher sample size will target both female and male in this process while the population will target the number of Johnsonville Community in District Two (2) Montserrado County in Liberia with the population of two thousand people (200) at Jonhsonville Township. A comparative national design is employed to assess how voter turnout influences electoral results across multiple democratic countries. The research covers elections from the past two decades to ensure relevance and capture recent trends. Data is collected from the field on electoral databases regarding voter turnout rates, party vote share, demographic data, and electoral system characteristic.

LITERATURE REVIEW

There are many researchers who have done surveyed regarding the impact of voter turnout on electoral outcomes. According to Lijphart (1997), low voter turnout tends to benefit conservative parties, as their voter base is more consistent.

Also, Franklin (2004) argues that voter participation is influenced by institutional factors such as compulsory voting laws, registration processes, and election timing.

Subsequently, Blais (2006) highlights that high turnout voters leads to outcomes that favor left-leaning parties due to high participation among low-income and young voters.

Norris (2014) suggests that voter mobilization efforts and political engagement campaigns significantly affect voter turnout level the manner in which strategies are put into place to get the needed result.

Research conducted by Lijphart (1997) suggests that proportional representation (PR) systems tend to have high voter turnout compared to majoritarian (first-past-the-post) systems because PR elections offer great representation and encourage participation. According to Franklin (2004), countries with compulsory voting such as Australia and Belgium report significantly high turnout than those without such laws.

Consequently, Blais (2006) and Norris (2014) indicate that older voters are more likely to participate in elections as compared to younger citizens, who often exhibit low political engagement.

Therefore, high-income and well-educated individuals tend to vote at high (Verba, Schlozman, & Brady, 1995), while economically disadvantaged groups face barriers due to lack of voter information or registration difficulties. Campaign strategies, leads to door-to-door canvassing and digital outreach, have a significant effect on voter turnout (Green & Gerber, 2015).

Notably, if citizens believe their vote does not make a difference, turnout decreases, as seen in probed on political efficacy (Dalton, 2008).These findings provide a framework for understanding how voter turnout shapes electoral outcomes. They want every voting age person to have an opportunity to make a decision in the electoral process.

Gaps and Critiques of each authors

Arend Lijphart (1997), surveyed on unequal Participation and unresolved Dilemma.

Lijphart argues that low voter turnout undermines legitimacy by creating unequal representation. He emphasizes that wealthier and more educated citizens participate in elections, leading to policies that favor these groups. He suggests that compulsory voting could mitigate this issue by ensuring broad representation.

The lack of Empirical Testing according to Lijphart’s argument is primarily theoretical, relying on assumptions rather than extensive empirical data.  These scholars argue that forced participation may result in uninformed voting (Hill, 2002). Mark Franklin (2004), position is that voter turnout driven by institutional factors such as registration laws, election frequency, and voting convenience. The researcher argues that declining voter participation in Western democracies is linked to complex registration processes and the declining competitiveness of elections.

Franklin focuses on institutional barriers but does not fully address voter apathy, trust in government, or the role of political engagement. Franklin research mainly analyzes post-1945 trends, failing to consider long-term historical voter turnout fluctuations.Franklin investigation does not explore voter turnout patterns in emerging democracies where factors like corruption and voter suppression play a larger role, (André Blais (2006).  Blais establishes correlations between PR systems and turnout; as he does not explore causal mechanisms in depth. Franklin survey does not consider how cultural attitudes toward voting influence participation rates.  This research is largely centered on well-established democracies, excluding countries with emerging or fragile democratic systems. This is absolutely out of the values that have been established for the democracy tendency. Pippa Norris (2014).focuses on systemic issues but does not analyze how personal experiences and voter identity affect participation. The study lacks clear metrics for quantifying the effects of electoral fraud and trust on voter turnout. The Key Literature Gaps Addressed by this Research reviewed investigated contribute significantly to understanding voter turnout and electoral outcomes.

Presentation of Findings

It is been investigated that high voter turnout is correlated with electoral victories for progressive and left-leaning parties, as they tend to have broader support among young and economically disadvantaged populations. Low voter turnout benefits conservative and right-leaning parties, whose supporters are more likely to vote consistently. Countries with proportional representation tend to have high turnout rates compared to those with first-past-the-post systems. Voting laws significantly increase voter turnout, leading to more representative electoral outcomes. The income level, education, and political awareness play a crucial role in determining voter participation.

In many democratic societies, high voter turnout has been associated with electoral gains for left-leaning parties. This trend is evident in the U.S., where high participation among young and minority voters has benefited the Democratic Party (Pew Research Center, 2020). When voter turnout is low, right-leaning parties tend to benefit, as seen in the U.K.’s Brexit referendum (2016), where older, conservative voters had higher participation compared to young, pro-EU voters.

Countries with PR systems such as Germany, Sweden experience high turnout because every vote contributes to representation.

The findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing voter turnout such as same-day registration, early voting, and voter education programs can lead to more representative electoral outcomes. Countries with consistently low turnout may need electoral reforms to enhance democratic participation. This section summarizes the key findings from the analysis of voter turnout data and its effects on electoral outcomes across selected national elections. Statistical analysis revealed a positive correlation between high voter turnout and electoral gains for the center left or progressive parties in many democracies. Countries like the United States and India showed that when turnout increases, particularly among younger, poorer, minority voters, opposition or reformist parties tend to benefit. The findings supported earlier research showing that age, income, education, and urban/rural location significantly influence turnout.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The following are recommended for effective research regarding this topic:

1. Implement voter-friendly policies and an automatic voter registration and extended voting hours.

Increase political awareness through civic education to encourage participation, especially among young voters. Strengthen voting accessibility by providing more polling stations and facilitating mail-in or online voting options.

2. Encourage compulsory voting in countries struggling with low voter turnout to improve democratic legitimacy.

Enhance voter mobilization efforts through targeted campaigns to engage underrepresented groups. To improve voter turnout and ensure fair electoral outcomes, the following strategies are recommended.

CONCLUSION

As the researcher conclude this work, it is appropriate to know that Voter turnout plays a decisive role in shaping national electoral outcomes. High participation in election generally result in more representative governance, while low turnout can distort electoral results in favor of groups with high voting consistency.

Policymakers, political parties, and civil society must work together to enhance voter participation to strengthen democracy; and Future research should investigate the long-term effects of turnout trends on policy-making and governance. Voter turnout is a crucial factor in determining electoral outcomes in national elections. High turnout typically leads to more representative governance, while low participation skews results in favor of consistent voting groups. This surveyed underscores the importance of institutional reforms, civic education, and voter mobilization efforts in strengthening democracy. By implementing policies that facilitate voter participation, governments can ensure fair and representative elections.

REFERENCES

1. Blais, A. (2006). What Affects Voter Turnout? Annual Review of Political Science, 9(1), 111-125.
2. Franklin, M. N. (2004). Voter Turnout & the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945.Cambridge University Press.
3. Lijphart, A. (1997). Unequal Participation Democracy’s Unresolved Dilemma.  American Political Science Review, 91(1), 1-14.
4. Norris, P. (2014). Why Electoral Integrity Matters. Cambridge University Press.
5. Blais, A. (2006). What Affects Voter Turnout? Annual Review of Political Science, 9(1), 111-125.
6. Dalton, R. J. (2008). Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies. CQ Press.
7. Franklin, M. N. (2004). Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition. Cambridge University Press.
8. Lijphart, A. (1997). Unequal Participation: Democracy’s Unresolved Dilemma. American Political Science Review, 91(1), 1-14.
9. Norris, P. (2014). Why Electoral Integrity Matters. Cambridge University Press.

APPENDIX

Annex -1: Did you vote in 2023 national elections?

 50% of the respondents said Yes and the balance of 50% answer No this comprised of Male & female.

Annex 2: Do you believe that high voter turnout leads to more representative electoral outcomes?

As indicated, 50% of the respondents positively while the remaining 50% respondent negatively.

Annex 3: Do you think that voter turnout can be improved in our Country Liberia?

It is good to know that 50% which comprises of female Concorde with the questionnaire. The balance 50% disagree with such notion.

Annex 4: Do you agree in our Country Liberia that elections are conducted fairly?

50% of male that do say yes on the issue and the rest of the 50% of women disagree with the question.

Annex 5: If yes, which one of these elections were conducted fairly?

It is viable to understand that voter motivation has so many components and 50% acknowledge that voters’ education helps to strengthen each to participate in elections.  And 50% dis-acknowledge.

Annex 6: Where do you primarily obtain information about election?

In this chart, 50% Comprises of female agree with the questions and the other 50% disagreed with the subject matter under discussion.

Annex 7: Do you believe that substantial voter education has been provided to the public?

The tendency of low election turnout is of concern, therefore 50% of male agreed and 50% female do not agree.

Annex 8: If yes, what have been motivational factors that influenced to participate in elections?

The 50% female response yes and 50% male say no.

Annex 9: What Are Changes You Believe Could Increase Voter Turnout In The Liberian Society?

The response received from respondents that say yes constitute 50% of the total which said no.

Annex 10: Are there cultural factors that influence voter’ behavior?

The 50% of the respondents agreed are male and the balance percent disagree are 50% female.

University Of Liberia

Ibb Graduate School of International Studies

Quantitative Political Analysis (Posc 508)

Research Instrument

These Questionnaire will be used to collect data about the perception of a population in my community on the topic: An analysis of the impact of voter turnout on electoral outcomes in national elections. It is intended to gather or collect data through a survey in partial fulfillment of a research project in POSC 508.

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Personal Details: Sex: Male (  ) Female (  )         

Age Range: 10-19 (  ); 20-29 (  ); 30-39 (  ); 40-49 (   ); 50-59 (  ); 60 above (  )

Literacy Level:  College or above (  ); High School Graduate (  ); High School Drop Out (  ); Completed Primary School (  ); Illiterate (  )

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Question 1. Did you vote in 2023 national elections?

1. Yes No

Question 2. Do you believe that high voter turnout leads to more significant electoral outcomes?

1. b. No

Question 3. Do you think that strategies for voter turnout can be improved in our society?

1. Yes No

Question 4. Do you agree that elections are conducted free and fairly?  a. Yes    b. No

Question 5. If yes, which one of these elections conducted fairly?

1. EJS 2005 b. EJS 2012 c. GWM 2017 e. JNB 2023 d. all of these

Question 6. Where do people primarily obtain information from about electoral matters?  a. Television   b. Radio   c. NEC Newspapers d. None

Question 7. Do you believe that substantial education has been provided to the public?  a. Yes   b. No

Question 9. If yes, what have been motivational factors that influenced to participate in elections?

1. Civic duty Desire for change   c. Support for a particular candidate or party influence of family and friends.

Question 10.  What are changes you believe could increase voter turnout in the Liberian society? a. Improved voter education b. Enhanced trust in the electoral process c. More accessible polling location d. All of these.