The Impact of New Energy Vehicles on China’s Economic Development

The Impact of New Energy Vehicles on China’s Economic Development

Gao Quanshan, Doris Padmini Selvaratnam

Economics & Management Programme, Bachelor of Economics with Honours, University Kembangan Malaysia

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.9020191

Received: 30 January 2025; Accepted: 05 February 2025; Published: 10 March 2025

ABSTRACT

This study aims to explore the impact of new energy vehicles (NEVs) on China’s economic development. As global attention to sustainable development intensifies, the NEV industry in China has rapidly emerged as a new engine of economic growth. Using econometric methods such as descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and unit root testing, this paper analyses the effects of the NEV industry on China’s economic growth, industrial structure transformation, employment levels, and technological innovation. Empirical results indicate that the development of NEVs has significantly contributed to China’s economic growth, with a particularly strong role in promoting the high-tech industry and manufacturing upgrades. Additionally, policy support and changes in market demand are critical factors influencing the industry’s growth. The findings offer policy recommendations for both government and industry decision-makers regarding the further development of the NEV sector.

Keywords: New energy vehicles; economic growth; industrial structure; technological innovation; econometric analysis; policy support

INTRODUCTION

Research background

Current Development Status of Global New Energy Vehicle Industry

The global new energy vehicle industry has experienced significant growth in the past decade and has become a key technology for addressing climate change and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. In 2023, global sales of new energy vehicles will approach 14 million units, accounting for 18% of global car sales. This figure has significantly increased from 14% in 2022, reflecting the continued expansion of the new energy vehicle market. Among them, China, Europe, and the United States dominate the global new energy vehicle market. China will contribute nearly 60% of global new energy vehicle sales in 2023, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 35% of domestic car sales. In the same year, electric vehicle sales in Europe reached 3.2 million units, accounting for 25% of the global market share, with Germany, France, and Norway being the main markets in the region. The United States sold 1.4 million electric vehicles, an increase of over 40%. In addition, although the sales proportion of emerging markets is relatively low, electric vehicle sales in countries such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam are showing a significant growth trend in 2023. The growth of these markets is attributed to government policy incentives and the promotion of relatively low-priced Chinese brands. In order to support the growth of new energy vehicles, the global battery manufacturing capacity has also rapidly increased. In 2023, the global electric vehicle battery manufacturing capacity will reach 2.5 terawatt hours, an increase of over 25% compared to the previous year. With the continuous growth of electric vehicle sales, it is expected that by 2030, global electric vehicles will consume over 8.2 million barrels of oil equivalent (Mb/d), further driving down global oil demand. The development of the global new energy vehicle industry not only benefits from the increase in market demand, but also relies on policy support from governments around the world. The policy frameworks such as the US Inflation Reduction Act, the EU’s Net Zero Industries Act, and China’s 14th Five Year Plan have played a key role in promoting the localization and market expansion of the new energy vehicle supply chain.

 Background of the rapid rise of China’s new energy vehicle industry

The Chinese new energy vehicle industry has entered a high-speed development track since 2015. With the acceleration of global energy transition and the Chinese government’s emphasis on environmental protection and energy structure adjustment, the new energy vehicle industry has become a new engine driving economic growth. The rapid rise of this industry can be attributed to several key factors: a sharp increase in production and sales volume, technological progress, and policy support.

Table1 China NEV Sales (2015-2023)

Market performance

From 2015 to 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have continued to rise. In 2015, the sales of new energy vehicles were only 330000 units; By 2023, it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will approach 10 million units, showing an average annual compound growth rate of over 40%. In 2023, the production of new energy vehicles in China will reach 95800 units, with sales of 94900 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9% respectively. The structure of the new energy vehicle market is also gradually optimizing. In 2022, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles (BEVs) was 5.365 million, accounting for the dominant position in the new energy vehicle market, with a proportion of over 80%. The sales volume of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) was 1.518 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times. This change in sales structure shows a significant increase in consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles, especially in the mid-range vehicle segment where penetration rates are accelerating.

Market size

The Chinese new energy vehicle market has rapidly expanded since 2015. In 2015, the market size of new energy vehicles was approximately 50 billion yuan. The market size will reach 1.6 trillion RMB in 2022. With the growth of sales, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has also rapidly increased, accounting for 25.6% of the total sales of the Chinese automobile market in 2022. The export of new energy vehicles has also shown significant growth. In 2023, China’s new energy vehicle exports are expected to reach 1.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, becoming an important driving force for industry development.

Policy support

The Chinese government has played a crucial role in the rise of the new energy vehicle industry. Since the release of the “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)“, the country has introduced a series of policy measures, including car purchase subsidies, tax reductions, local government consumption stimulus policies, and the “double points” policy. These policies not only encourage the production and consumption of new energy vehicles, but also promote the rapid development of charging infrastructure and battery technology. In addition, China’s 14th Five Year Plan has identified the new energy vehicle industry as one of its key national strategies, setting a target for the proportion of new energy vehicle sales to total vehicle sales by 2025, and achieving electrification of public transportation vehicles in major cities by 2035. The government is also accelerating the popularization and market expansion of new energy vehicles by promoting green transportation and implementing the “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” strategy.

Technological innovation

Technological innovation is another important factor driving the rapid rise of China’s new energy vehicle industry. Since 2015, China has made significant breakthroughs in battery technology, intelligent driving technology, and overall performance of electric vehicles. In 2023, new battery technologies such as lithium iron phosphate and sodium ion batteries will enter large-scale applications, further enhancing the range and safety of electric vehicles. In addition, semi-solid and solid-state battery technologies are also accelerating their implementation, laying a technological foundation for the development of future new energy vehicles.

The rise of China’s new energy vehicle industry is the result of multiple factors, including a surge in market demand, technological advancements, and strong government policy support. From 2015 to 2023, the rapid development of the industry has not only had a positive impact on the domestic economy, but also promoted China’s leadership position in the global new energy vehicle field.

Research questions

Impact of New Energy Vehicles on China’s Economic Growth

The primary research question of this article is how the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry can promote China’s economic growth in both the short and long term. We will analyze in detail the contribution of the output of the new energy vehicle industry to the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), as well as its driving effects on high-tech manufacturing, infrastructure construction, and the energy industry. The study will also examine how the new energy vehicle industry can enhance China’s economic competitiveness through technological innovation, employment growth, and market expansion, and promote the upgrading of the economic structure from relying on traditional energy to clean energy.

The regulatory role of relevant policies on industrial development

This study will also focus on exploring the key regulatory role of government policies in the new energy vehicle industry. Specifically, we will analyze how the government promotes the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry through policy tools such as fiscal subsidies, tax incentives, technology research and development support, market promotion, and the “dual credit” system. In addition, the study will also evaluate the impact of the gradual withdrawal of policies on the sustainable development of industries as market maturity increases, as well as how to maintain a balance between policies and market forces.

Research Objectives and Significance

Research Objectives

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the new energy vehicle industry on China’s economic development, and explore its specific contributions to GDP growth, employment structure, technological innovation, and energy structure adjustment. The study will also focus on the role of government policies in promoting the development of the industry, analyzing the balance between policy support and market-oriented operations. Specifically, this article aims to reveal the economic effects of the new energy vehicle industry through quantitative and qualitative analysis, and provide empirical evidence for future policy adjustments by the government.

Research significance

1. Theoretical significance: As an important component of China’s economic transformation, studying the contribution of new energy vehicles to economic growth can enrich existing theories in industrial economics and innovation economics. Meanwhile, this article will provide academic support for the development path of the new energy vehicle industry through empirical analysis, filling the gap in the research on the macroeconomic impact of the new energy vehicle field.
2. Practical significance: From a practical perspective, the research results of this article will provide empirical evidence for policy makers and help the government better understand the economic benefits and challenges of the new energy vehicle industry. This will help formulate more effective policies to promote the healthy development of the industry. In addition, this study will provide reference for new energy vehicle companies to better plan their market and technology strategies in the policy environment and enhance their competitiveness.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Overview of Global Development of New Energy Vehicle Industry

Development trend of new energy vehicles in major economies

Europe is at the forefront of promoting new energy vehicles globally, especially with EU countries pushing for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles through a series of policy measures. According to a study by Automotive and Parts, in 2024, the demand for new energy vehicles in the EU market is showing a diversified trend, and the market share of Chinese brands in the European market is gradually increasing ^[1]. At the same time, Hu Dan’s (2024) research points out that China’s exports of new energy vehicles to the European Union are mainly affected by technology, policies, and trade barriers, but in some high-end markets, Chinese new energy vehicle brands show strong competitiveness ^[2].

As another important market for global new energy vehicles, the United States, represented by Tesla, has played a key role in promoting industry development. Jin Dianqiang et al. (2024) pointed out that Tesla has not only enhanced its brand influence through innovative public relations and marketing strategies, but also promoted the recognition and acceptance of electric vehicles in the US market ^[3]. The new energy vehicle policy in the United States mainly focuses on tax incentives and the construction of charging infrastructure, which provides a favorable market environment for companies such as Tesla.

In Asia, the new energy vehicle industry in Japan and South Korea is also accelerating its development. According to Jin Renshu’s (2024) analysis, while the Japanese government is promoting the transformation of its domestic automotive industry, it also poses challenges and opportunities to external markets, including the Chinese market. Japan’s strategy is not limited to its domestic market, but also focuses on the coordinated development with the global supply chain, which has enabled Japan to maintain a leading position in the fields of electric and hybrid vehicles ^[4]. At the same time, Cong Junjie (2024) discussed the layout of South Korea’s new energy vehicle industry chain, especially its advantages in component production and supply, which provides a new direction for China to introduce South Korea’s technology and investment ^[5].

Overall, major economies around the world have their own unique development paths in the new energy vehicle industry. Europe is mainly driven by policies, while the United States drives the market through technological innovation. Japan and South Korea maintain a leading position in deepening their industrial chains and technological innovation.

Driving factors of the global new energy vehicle market

Behind the rapid expansion of the global new energy vehicle market, there are multiple complex driving factors at play. These factors include policy push, technological innovation, changes in market demand, and accelerated global energy transition. Research has shown that the expansion of the new energy vehicle market is not only dependent on changes in consumer preferences, but also directly influenced by government policies in various countries, as well as driven by technological advancements in enterprises.

According to Jiao Yanqing’s (2020) research, policy support and technological progress are the main driving forces behind the diffusion of the new energy vehicle market. The government has provided strong support for the popularization of new energy vehicles through subsidies, tax reductions, and the construction of charging infrastructure. In addition, Jiao Yanqing also pointed out that the growth of market share largely depends on the advancement of battery technology, especially breakthroughs in battery energy density and cost control ^[6].

Cheng Yunjie and Bu Yuxin (2023) further analyzed the driving factors of the new energy vehicle market from the perspective of global trade. They pointed out that the growth of global trade in new energy vehicles is not only driven by globalization and supply chain networks, but also influenced by policy coordination and technological cooperation. The policy differences between different countries have to some extent affected the speed of market diffusion, but technological innovation, especially the progress of battery technology and intelligent driving technology, remains the core driving force for the growth of the global new energy vehicle market^[7].

Theoretical basis of new energy vehicles for economic growth

Theory of Technological Innovation

The theory of technological innovation is one of the core theories for analyzing the impact of the new energy vehicle industry on economic growth. According to the “Innovation Leads to Demand Theory”, technological innovation can not only directly improve the technological level of products, but also promote industrial development by creating new market demand. In the new energy vehicle industry, technological innovations in battery technology, intelligent driving systems, and other fields have greatly promoted the growth of new energy vehicle sales. Li Xiaomin et al. (2022) conducted an empirical study on the sales of new energy vehicles based on the “innovation induced demand theory”. The study showed that technological innovation significantly increased the market demand for new energy vehicles, especially in terms of advances in battery technology and increased range, directly driving up the sales of new energy vehicles ^[8].In addition, Shi Xiu et al. (2018) studied the regional distribution characteristics of China’s new energy vehicle technology innovation and pointed out that the regional concentration of technological innovation has a significant impact on the expansion of the new energy vehicle industry. The regional cluster effect of technological innovation not only promotes the development of the new energy vehicle industry in various regions, but also enhances the competitiveness and innovation capability of the regional economy through the effect of industrial clusters ^[9]. Through the theory of technological innovation, we can better understand the driving mechanism of new energy vehicles on economic growth. Technological innovation not only provides a technological foundation for the development of the new energy vehicle industry, but also drives overall economic growth by promoting the improvement of production efficiency and the expansion of market demand. This theory provides an important theoretical basis for further analyzing the contribution of new energy vehicles to the Chinese economy in this article.

Theory of Industrial Structure Transformation

The development of the new energy vehicle industry not only promotes technological innovation, but also triggers significant changes in the industrial structure on a global scale. In China, the rise of the new energy vehicle industry is accelerating the transformation of traditional manufacturing into high value-added industries. This process is known as “industrial structure transformation” in economics, and its core theory holds that when new technologies and products enter the market, the proportion of traditional industries will decrease, while emerging industries will become the main driving force for economic growth.

According to the research of Jin Xiaoyan et al. (2023), the high-quality development path of the new energy vehicle industry is closely related to the adjustment of industrial structure. Through deep optimization of the industrial chain, new energy vehicles not only promote the upgrading of the automotive manufacturing industry, but also have a wide impact on upstream and downstream industries, such as battery manufacturing, intelligent control technology, and emerging industries such as charging infrastructure ^[10].The rise of such industries not only improves the overall technological level of the economy, but also significantly enhances the global competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry. Zou Lili and Hua Feng (2023) also explored the impact of the new energy vehicle industry on industrial structural transformation from the perspective of low-carbon economy. They pointed out that under the background of low-carbon economy, the traditional fuel vehicle industry is facing elimination pressure, while the rapid development of new energy vehicles has provided a new growth engine for the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, government policy support and changes in market demand have further accelerated this transformation process, driving the entire economy towards green and sustainable development ^[11]. The theory of industrial structure transformation explains how the new energy vehicle industry promotes the upgrading of traditional industries and the rise of emerging industries through technological innovation and market changes, thereby driving the adjustment of the entire economic structure. This theory provides an important analytical framework for understanding the role of the new energy vehicle industry in the Chinese economy.

Analysis of China’s New Energy Vehicle Policies

Policy Support and Regulatory Measures of the Chinese Government

1. Fiscal subsidy policy

The financial subsidy for new energy vehicles is one of the earliest and most important measures taken by the Chinese government to support the development of this industry. Since 2009, the government has provided direct financial subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles. This policy greatly reduces consumers’ purchasing costs and stimulates the market demand for new energy vehicles. However, as the market matures, subsidies are gradually decreasing and are planned to be completely eliminated in the coming years to promote the natural operation of the market.

2. Double points policy

In 2017, China introduced the “Parallel Management Measures for Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Points“, also known as the “Dual Points Policy”. This policy requires car manufacturers to produce a certain proportion of new energy vehicles while producing traditional fuel vehicles, in order to meet the dual requirements of fuel consumption and new energy vehicle credits. Companies that fail to meet the requirements need to purchase points from other companies, which provides a strong incentive mechanism for the production of new energy vehicles.

3. Infrastructure construction policies

With the expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the construction of infrastructure such as charging piles has become one of the key policy supports. The Chinese government has formulated the “Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)” to promote the expansion of charging networks and plans to build over 5 million charging stations nationwide by 2025.

The role of policies in promoting the development of the new energy vehicle industry

The policy support of the Chinese government has played a crucial role in promoting the development of the new energy vehicle industry. These policies not only lower the market entry barriers for new energy vehicles, but also lay a solid foundation for the long-term sustainable development of the industry.

1. The driving role of market expansion

The fiscal subsidy policy played a crucial role in promoting the initial development stage of the new energy vehicle market. By directly reducing consumers’ purchasing costs, fiscal subsidies have significantly increased the market share of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the gradual reduction of subsidies also reflects the government’s desire to gradually reduce intervention in the market and promote the transformation of industries from policy driven to market-oriented operations.

2. The driving force of technological progress

The dual credit policy not only promotes the production of new energy vehicles through market mechanisms, but also drives enterprises to invest in technological innovation. Due to the requirements of the points system, many traditional car companies have increased their research and development investment in electrification technology to enhance fuel economy and competitiveness of new energy vehicle models. This has driven rapid development in key areas such as power battery technology and intelligent driving technology.

3. The driving role of improved infrastructure

The construction of charging infrastructure is the key to the popularization of new energy vehicles. The infrastructure development guidelines issued by the government not only ensure the convenience of using electric vehicles, but also encourage private capital to participate in construction, forming a situation of joint promotion by the government and the market. The gradual improvement of charging networks has significantly boosted consumers’ confidence in purchasing cars and provided support for the long-term expansion of the new energy vehicle market

DATA AND METHODS

Data sources

The data mainly comes from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This article mainly uses second-hand data, including official statistical data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the National Bureau of Statistics.

The time span of the data is from 2015 to 2023. This period is a critical stage for the rapid rise of China’s new energy vehicle industry, during which policy support, technological innovation, and market expansion for new energy vehicles reached their peak. Especially after 2020, the new energy vehicle market has further accelerated its expansion, providing a good sample basis for this study.

This study focuses on the annual production, sales, export volume, and market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China. At the same time, economic indicators such as GDP growth rate and technological innovation investment will be combined to analyze the contribution of new energy vehicles to the overall economy. The expansion of the export market for new energy vehicles and their performance in the global market are also important analysis objects to reflect their impact on the external economy.

Research Methods

Descriptive statistical analysis

Firstly, this article will conduct descriptive statistical analysis on the collected data. Descriptive statistics are mainly used to analyze the basic characteristics of variables such as production, sales, export volume, and market penetration rate of new energy vehicles. Analyze the basic trends and changes in the new energy vehicle industry through indicators such as mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum values. Descriptive statistics help to understand the distribution of data and lay the foundation for subsequent empirical analysis.

Correlation analysis

This article will also use correlation analysis methods to study the relationship between the production and sales of new energy vehicles and variables such as economic growth (GDP growth rate) and technological innovation investment. By calculating the correlation coefficient, analyze whether the development of the new energy vehicle industry is highly correlated with China’s economic growth and technological progress. Correlation analysis can reveal the strength of associations between variables and provide a basis for subsequent regression analysis.

Regression analysis

In order to further quantify the specific impact of the new energy vehicle industry on China’s economic growth, this article will use a multiple linear regression analysis model. Construct a regression model with GDP growth rate as the dependent variable and production and sales volume, export volume, market penetration rate, and technology research and development investment of new energy vehicles as independent variables. By estimating regression coefficients, analyze the actual contribution of the new energy vehicle industry to China’s GDP growth, and verify the role of the expansion of the new energy vehicle market in optimizing the economic structure.

The basic form of a regression model is as follows:

Among them,  is a constant term,  is the regression coefficient of each variable, and  is the error term. This model can quantify the impact of various factors in the new energy vehicle industry on GDP growth.

Unit Root Inspection

To ensure the stationarity of time series data, this article will use unit root test methods (such as ADF test) in empirical analysis. A stationary time series is the foundation for regression analysis, and unit root tests can help identify whether data is non-stationary and determine whether differential processing is needed. If the data is non-stationary, it will be smoothed using first-order or second-order differencing.

Through the above research methods, this article will systematically analyze the specific impact of the new energy vehicle industry on China’s economic growth, verify the causal relationship between the new energy vehicle industry and economic growth, and provide a basis for policy formulation.

EMPIRICAL RESULTS

Analysis of Descriptive Statistical Results

Statistical characteristics of data related to new energy vehicles

1. Growth trend of production volume and sales volume:

From 2015 to 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have shown a significant growth trend. In 2015, the production of new energy vehicles was only 0.34 million units, with sales of 0.33 million units. By 2023, production has reached 9.58 million vehicles and sales have reached 9.49 million vehicles, an increase of approximately 28 times and 29 times respectively. This indicates the rapid expansion of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market, especially the explosive growth after 2021, marking the industry entering a stage of large-scale marketization.

2. Changes in export volume:

The export volume of new energy vehicles also increased significantly during this period. In 2015, the export volume of new energy vehicles in China was only 0.005 million units, but by 2023, the export volume has reached 1.2 million units. This indicates that China’s new energy vehicles not only occupy an important position in the domestic market, but also demonstrate strong competitiveness in the international market, with a particularly significant increase in export volume in recent years.

3. Increase in market penetration rate:

The market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has gradually increased from 1% in 2015 to 33.5% in 2023. This data indicates that the proportion of new energy vehicles in the entire automotive market is constantly increasing, especially after 2021, with policy promotion and increased market demand, the penetration rate growth is accelerating. This high-speed market penetration indicates that new energy vehicles have gradually entered the market dominant stage from the policy driven stage, and consumers’ acceptance of new energy vehicles has significantly increased.

4. Fluctuations in GDP growth rate:

From 2015 to 2019, China’s GDP growth rate remained around 6%, but in 2020, due to the impact of the pandemic, the GDP growth rate dropped to 2.3%. In 2021, with the economic recovery, the GDP growth rate reached 8.1%, and then fell back to 3.0% and 5.2% in 2022 and 2023. Despite fluctuations in GDP growth rates, the role of the new energy vehicle industry in economic restructuring and growth is becoming increasingly important.

5. The correlation between industry and economy:

From the data, it can be seen that with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, especially the rapid expansion after 2021, the growth momentum of the Chinese economy has gradually shifted from traditional industries to high-tech and green economy fields. The role of new energy vehicles in promoting technological innovation, expanding exports, and promoting consumption upgrading is gradually emerging. In summary, the new energy vehicle industry has achieved significant development since 2015, especially in terms of production, sales, and export volume, showing a rapid growth trend. These data reflect the important position of the industry in the Chinese economy and provide a basis for analyzing its specific contribution to China’s economic growth.

Trends and changes in data

Through the analysis of data related to the new energy vehicle industry from 2015 to 2023, it can be observed that the production volume, sales volume, export volume, market penetration rate, and GDP growth rate of new energy vehicles show different trends and changes in different years. The following is a detailed trend analysis of these data:

1. Growth trend of production volume and sales volume:

From the data, it can be seen that the production and sales of new energy vehicles experienced rapid growth between 2015 and 2023. Between 2015 and 2020, production and sales growth remained relatively stable, with annual growth rates ranging from 20% to 30%. However, starting from 2021, the industry has entered an explosive growth phase, especially between 2021 and 2023, with production increasing from 3.52 million vehicles to 9.58 million vehicles and sales increasing from 3.52 million vehicles to 9.49 million vehicles. This growth reflects the strong demand in China’s new energy vehicle market, as well as the rapid expansion and technological progress of the related industry chain.

Changes in export volume:

The export volume of new energy vehicles has increased from 0.005 million units in 2015 to 1.2 million units in 2023, indicating that the competitiveness of China’s new energy vehicle industry in the international market is gradually improving. Especially after 2021, there has been a significant increase in export volume, which is closely related to China’s expansion strategy of new energy vehicles in overseas markets. Chinese companies are gradually gaining market share in Europe, Southeast Asia, and other regions through technological innovation and cost control.

2. Increase in market penetration rate:

The market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is an important indicator to measure their popularity in the domestic market. In 2015, new energy vehicles accounted for only 1% of the overall automotive market, but this proportion has reached 33.5% by 2023. The significant increase in market penetration rate indicates that the position of new energy vehicles in the Chinese automotive market is gradually stabilizing, and more and more consumers are choosing new energy vehicles. This trend is driven by various factors such as government policy support, technological progress, and improvement of charging infrastructure.

Fluctuations and correlations in GDP growth rate:

While the new energy vehicle industry is rapidly developing, China’s GDP growth rate has shown some fluctuations. From 2015 to 2019, the GDP growth rate remained at a high level of around 6%, indicating the steady growth of the Chinese economy. However, in 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the GDP growth rate dropped to 2.3%. In 2021, with the economic recovery, the GDP growth rate reached 8.1%, and then slightly fell back to 3.0% and 5.2% in 2022 and 2023. Despite fluctuations in GDP growth rates, the sustained growth of the new energy vehicle industry has injected new vitality into the Chinese economy, especially in response to external shocks, making new energy vehicles an important driving force for economic recovery and growth.

Correlation analysis results

To further explore the relationship between variables related to new energy vehicles and China’s economic growth, this paper conducted Pearson correlation analysis using SPSS software. By calculating the data from 2015 to 2023, the correlation coefficients between the production volume, sales volume, export volume, market penetration rate, and GDP growth rate of new energy vehicles were obtained.

Correlation coefficients between variables

The following is the correlation matrix output using SPSS software, and the values in the table are Pearson correlation coefficients. The range of correlation coefficient values is between -1 and 1, with positive values indicating positive correlation, negative values indicating negative correlation, values close to 1 or -1 indicating strong correlation, and values close to 0 indicating no correlation.

Explanation and Significance of Correlation Analysis

1. There is a high positive correlation between production volume and sales volume

The correlation coefficient between production volume and sales volume is 0.982, indicating a strong positive correlation between the two. This means that the production capacity of new energy vehicles directly determines their market performance. With the expansion of production scale, sales have grown synchronously, indicating a high degree of coordination between the supply side and market demand side of the industrial chain. The market penetration ability of new energy vehicles has significantly increased with the expansion of production.

2. Strong correlation between production volume, sales volume, and GDP growth rate

The correlation coefficient between production volume and GDP growth rate is 0.732, while the correlation coefficient between sales volume and GDP growth rate is 0.724. This indicates that the production and sales of new energy vehicles have a significant driving effect on China’s macroeconomic growth. This strong positive correlation reflects that the new energy vehicle industry, as a strategic emerging industry, not only promotes the development of high-tech industries, but also directly contributes to GDP growth, especially in the context of industrial upgrading and green transformation.

3. Correlation between export volume and other variables

The correlation coefficients between export volume and production volume, sales volume, and market penetration rate are 0.829, 0.815, and 0.781, respectively, indicating a strong positive correlation. This indicates that with the development of China’s new energy vehicle industry, its export volume is gradually increasing. Especially after 2021, the export of new energy vehicles has become an important way for China to increase its global market share. This result indicates that the technological competitiveness and cost advantage of China’s new energy vehicles have gradually made them occupy an important position in the international market, and export expansion is closely related to the expansion of domestic industrial scale.

4. Positive correlation between market penetration rate and GDP growth rate

The correlation coefficient between market penetration rate and GDP growth rate is 0.680, indicating a significant positive correlation. With the increasing penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market, its role in driving economic growth has become increasingly evident. The expansion of the new energy vehicle market not only reflects changes in market demand, but also demonstrates the industry’s supportive role in the macro economy, especially in promoting industrial structural transformation and upgrading energy consumption.

Unit Root Inspection Results

Results of Stability Test

The statistical software tool outputs the ADF test results for each variable, indicating whether there are unit roots in each time series data. If the data passes the ADF test, the time series is considered stationary. The following are the results of unit root verification using EViews software:

Stability of production and sales volume:

The ADF test results for the production and sales of new energy vehicles show that their ADF statistics are -4.532 and -4.672, respectively, all below the critical values at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels. Therefore, it can be concluded that the production and sales sequences are stationary and suitable for direct regression analysis without the need for differential processing.

1. Stability of export volume:

The ADF statistic of export volume is -3.921, which is also below the critical values of each significance level, indicating that the export volume sequence is stationary.

2. Stability of market penetration rate:

The ADF statistic of market penetration rate is -5.123, significantly lower than all critical values, indicating that the data of market penetration rate is also stable.

3. Stability of GDP growth rate:

The ADF statistic of GDP growth rate is -3.872, which has also passed the stationarity test, indicating that this variable does not require differencing on the time series.

Impact of Unit Root Test Results on Model Selection

According to the ADF unit root test results mentioned earlier, the main variables related to new energy vehicles have passed the stationarity test, indicating that these time series are stationary in their horizontal form and do not require further differencing. Therefore, in the subsequent empirical analysis, the standard multiple linear regression model (OLS) can be directly used to estimate the impact of the new energy vehicle industry on China’s economic growth, without the need for more complex time series models such as difference models or cointegration models.

1.The stationarity of variables ensures the applicability of the OLS model

Since all variables are judged to be stationary in the ADF unit root test, this article can directly use the OLS model for regression analysis without considering the problem of spurious regression caused by non stationarity. The OLS model is a fundamental regression method widely used in econometric analysis, suitable for estimating multivariate linear relationships in stationary data. Due to the stationarity of the data, the estimation results of the OLS model will have high validity and reliability.

2. Avoid using differential models

If certain variables are judged non-stationary in the unit root test, it is usually necessary to perform differential processing on these data to make them stationary, and then perform regression analysis. However, the test results of this article show that all time series data are stationary, so there is no need to use a difference model. Avoiding differential processing means that the data can retain its original trend information, making the regression analysis results more intuitive and easy to interpret.

3. Other considerations in model selection

Although the data in this article have passed the unit root test and using the OLS model is appropriate, in future research, if more years of data or more complex variables (such as other macroeconomic variables or international economic factors) are added, other time series models need to be considered. Especially if there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between different variables, it may be necessary to use methods such as cointegration analysis and error correction models (ECM) to capture the dynamic relationship between the short and long term.

Through ADF unit root test, this article concludes that all major variables are stationary data, therefore the OLS model can be directly used for analysis. The unit root test results ensure the reliability and interpretability of the regression model, avoiding false regression problems caused by non-stationary data. This result provides a solid data foundation and model basis for the subsequent analysis of the specific contribution of the new energy vehicle industry to the Chinese economy.

Regression analysis results

After determining the stationarity of the data through unit root testing in the previous section, this article uses multiple linear regression model (OLS) to analyze the impact of the new energy vehicle industry on China’s economic growth. The dependent variable used in the regression model is the GDP growth rate, and the independent variables include the production, sales, export volume, and market penetration rate of new energy vehicles. Through regression analysis, this article aims to quantify the contribution of these variables to China’s GDP growth and reveal the role of the new energy vehicle industry in promoting China’s economic development.

Analysis of Regression Model Results

Using EViews software for regression analysis of data from 2015 to 2023, the following regression results were obtained. The form of the regression model is as follows:

GDP_Growth=β0+β1×NEV_Production+β2×NEV_Sales+β3×R&D_Investment+ϵ

Among them,  is a constant term,  is the regression coefficient of each variable, and  is the error term. The following are the results of the regression analysis:

Model diagnostic indicators:

R²=0.872

Adjusted R ²=0.854

F-statistic=46.52, P-value<0.001

Assessment of the Impact of New Energy Vehicle Development on China’s Economic Growth

1.The impact of production volume on GDP growth (β=0.315, P<0.01)

The production of new energy vehicles has a significant positive impact on GDP growth, with a regression coefficient of 0.315. This means that for every unit increase in production, the GDP growth rate will increase by 0.315 percentage points. This indicates that the expansion of production scale has a strong driving force for China’s economic growth.

2. The impact of sales volume on GDP growth (β=0.298, P<0.01)

The sales of new energy vehicles also have a significant positive impact on GDP growth, with a regression coefficient of 0.298. With the increase in sales of new energy vehicles, the GDP growth rate has shown a significant increase, indicating that the expansion of market demand has played a key role in driving economic growth.

3. The impact of export volume on GDP growth (β=0.184, P<0.05)

The export volume of new energy vehicles also has a positive impact on GDP growth, with a regression coefficient of 0.184 and passing the significance test (P<0.05). This indicates that the export of new energy vehicles has a promoting effect on China’s economic growth, especially in the context of the gradual expansion of global market share, which injects new impetus into the Chinese economy.

4. The impact of market penetration rate on GDP growth (β=0.255, P<0.05)

There is also a significant positive correlation between market penetration rate and GDP growth rate, with a regression coefficient of 0.255. This indicates that as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market increases, the economic growth rate also rises, indicating that the expansion of the new energy vehicle industry in the domestic market is gradually increasing its contribution to economic growth.

From R² and the adjusted R², it can be seen that the model has a high degree of fit, with R² of 0.872, indicating that the model can explain 87.2% of the GDP growth rate change. The F-statistic is 46.52, and the P-value is less than 0.001, indicating that the overall regression model is significant and has strong explanatory power, which can better explain the impact of the new energy vehicle industry on economic growth. Through regression analysis, the results show that the production volume, sales volume, export volume, and market penetration rate of new energy vehicles have a significant positive impact on China’s GDP growth. These variables not only reflect the direct contribution of industrial scale expansion to the economy, but also indicate that with the popularization of new energy vehicles in the market, their role in driving the macro economy is increasingly strong.

DISCUSSION

The rise of the new energy vehicle industry in China not only promotes industrial upgrading and economic growth, but also occupies an important position in the global new energy vehicle market. This chapter discusses the specific impact mechanism, challenges, and future prospects of new energy vehicles on China’s economic development, and compares the new energy vehicle industry between China and developed economies from an international perspective, in order to explore the inspiration of international experience for China.

Impact mechanism of new energy vehicles on China’s economic development

The role of new energy vehicles in industrial upgrading

The rapid development of new energy vehicles has promoted the overall upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry. Firstly, the new energy vehicle industry integrates advanced manufacturing and high-tech service industries, promoting the transformation of traditional automobile manufacturing towards intelligence and electrification. In this transformation process, new energy vehicles have driven the rapid development of high-tech fields such as power batteries, intelligent networking, and autonomous driving, forming an industrial chain upgrade driven by technological innovation. Secondly, the synergistic effect of the new energy vehicle

industry in the supply chain and industrial chain has promoted the integration and innovation of related upstream and downstream industries. Significant improvements have been made in the fields of power battery manufacturing, charging infrastructure, and lightweight materials, further enhancing the overall competitiveness of the industry.

Impact of New Energy Vehicle Industry on Employment and Investment

The rise of the new energy vehicle industry has brought a large number of employment opportunities and investment growth to China. On the one hand, the new energy vehicle industry chain involves multiple links such as production, research and development, and services, creating direct and indirect employment opportunities, especially in technology research and development, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction. For example, the research and development needs in fields such as power batteries and intelligent networking technology have driven the employment of high-tech talents. On the other hand, with the expansion of the new energy vehicle market, capital investment has gradually increased, especially in the construction of charging piles, research and development of power battery technology, and intelligent vehicle platforms, where investment has significantly increased. The high investment return rate of the industry has attracted a large amount of capital to enter, further promoting technological innovation and market expansion of the entire industry.

Challenges and Prospects of the New Energy Vehicle Industry

Challenges of Technological Barriers and Market Expansion

Despite the rapid development of China’s new energy vehicle industry, it still faces challenges such as technological barriers and market expansion. Firstly, power battery technology remains a bottleneck that restricts the development of the industry. The current battery energy density, charging speed, and safety have not fully met consumer needs, especially in terms of battery life and endurance, where there are still technical challenges. In addition, new energy vehicles still rely on imports in the supply chain of core components, which limits their competitiveness in the global market. Secondly, market expansion faces many challenges. Despite the rapid growth of the domestic market, the expansion of the international market is not yet mature, especially in developed economies where there are differences in consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles, policies, and market environments.

Potential impact of policy adjustments on industrial development

The support policies of the Chinese government for the new energy vehicle industry have always been an important driving force for its rapid development. However, as the market matures, policies such as government subsidies and tax incentives gradually decline, making it a major challenge to maintain stable market growth while policy support weakens. Policy adjustments may affect consumers’ car buying behavior and companies’ production plans, especially after subsidies are withdrawn. Companies need to rely on their own technological innovation and market-oriented operational capabilities to maintain growth. At the same time, policy adjustments may also affect the capital market’s investment expectations for the new energy vehicle industry, thereby having a chain reaction on the development of the entire industry.

Comparative analysis with the international market

Comparison of New Energy Vehicle Industry between China and Developed Economies

There are significant differences between China and developed economies in the path selection and development model of the new energy vehicle industry. The development of China’s new energy vehicle industry relies more on government policy support, including subsidies, tax incentives, and “double credit” policies, which promote large-scale market penetration. In contrast, developed economies such as the United States and Europe focus more on promoting industrial development through technological innovation and market competition. Tesla in the United States relies on independent research and development and brand advantages to occupy a leading global position, while traditional European car manufacturers consolidate their position in the global market through hybrid technology and electrification transformation. The differences in infrastructure construction also affect the development path of the domestic and foreign new energy vehicle markets. The Chinese government has invested heavily in building a nationwide charging network, significantly increasing consumers’ acceptance of new energy vehicles. However, in many developed countries, infrastructure construction is relatively lagging behind, leading to concerns among consumers about the convenience of using new energy vehicles.

Implications of International Experience for China’s Development

International experience has important reference significance for the future development of China’s new energy vehicle industry. Firstly, China should pay more attention to technological innovation, especially in the fields of battery technology, intelligent connectivity, and autonomous driving. The experience of developed countries shows that technological leadership is the key to ensuring long-term competitiveness. Secondly, China should accelerate market-oriented operations, reduce reliance on policy subsidies, and enhance the independent innovation capabilities and market competitiveness of enterprises. The successful experience of Tesla in the United States shows that the company’s efforts in global layout and brand building can bring huge opportunities for global market expansion. Finally, China should strengthen international cooperation, participate in the optimization and restructuring of the global new energy vehicle supply chain, and enhance its position in the global market. By collaborating with other countries and regions, we can further enhance the technological level of China’s new energy vehicle industry and explore a wider international market.

DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ENERGY VEHICLES AND CONCLUSIONS

The development of the new energy vehicle industry has played an important role in promoting China’s economic growth and green transformation. This article proposes corresponding policy implications and conclusions through data analysis and regression model testing. By analyzing the contribution of new energy vehicles to the economy, technological challenges, and international experience, this article provides suggestions for future policy adjustments and discusses the limitations and future directions of the research.

Development of new energy vehicles

How can the government further support the new energy vehicle industry

In order to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry, the government should adopt multidimensional support measures. Firstly, incentives for technological research and development should continue to be strengthened. The government can encourage enterprises to innovate in key technology areas, especially in the fields of power batteries, charging technology, and intelligent driving, by providing more technology research and development subsidies and tax exemptions. Secondly, the construction of charging infrastructure still needs to be continuously promoted, especially in rural and remote areas, to further expand the coverage of charging networks and enhance consumers’ acceptance of new energy vehicles. Finally, the government should promote the localization of the supply chain, reduce dependence on the import of key components, and improve the stability and security of the domestic supply chain.

Long term policy recommendations for the new energy vehicle market

For the long-term development of the new energy vehicle market, government policies need to gradually shift from subsidy driven to market-oriented operations. The government should reasonably plan the timetable for subsidy reduction, gradually reduce fiscal subsidies, and promote market self-regulation. In addition, the government should strengthen the standardization construction of the new energy vehicle industry, formulate stricter environmental, technological, and safety standards, and enhance the quality and global competitiveness of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the government can use green finance tools to promote new energy vehicle companies to obtain more capital support and help promote the sustainable development of the industry.

Research Conclusion

Summary of main research findings

This article analyzes the data of the new energy vehicle industry from 2015 to 2023 and draws the following main research findings:

1. Production and sales are highly correlated with GDP growth: Regression analysis shows that the production and sales of new energy vehicles are significantly positively correlated with China’s GDP growth, indicating that the industry’s contribution to the Chinese economy has been increasing year by year.
2. Export expansion drives economic growth: The rapid increase in the export volume of new energy vehicles has become one of the important driving factors for China’s economic growth, especially after 2021, the expansion of the new energy vehicle export market has brought new impetus to the economy.
3. Significant increase in market penetration rate: The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market has increased from 1% in 2015 to 33.5% in 2023, demonstrating the huge potential of the industry in the domestic market and the improvement of consumer acceptance.

Final evaluation of the economic impact of new energy vehicles

The impact of the new energy vehicle industry on the Chinese economy is reflected in multiple aspects. Firstly, as an emerging high-tech industry, new energy vehicles have promoted the upgrading of industrial structure and technological progress, providing important support for the transformation of China’s manufacturing industry. Secondly, the new energy vehicle industry has injected new vitality into the sustained growth of the Chinese economy by increasing employment, promoting technological innovation, and driving exports. Finally, with the gradual optimization of policy support, new energy vehicles will play a greater role in promoting green economy and achieving carbon neutrality goals.

Research Limitations and Future Research Directions

Data Limitations in the Study

Although multiple regression analysis and correlation testing were used in this article, there are still certain limitations in terms of data completeness and representativeness. Firstly, the data coverage related to new energy vehicles is relatively wide, but due to limited data availability, there may be incomplete accuracy in some years’ data, especially in the international market expansion part where export data has not yet fully covered the global market. Secondly, this study mainly focuses on the Chinese market, with limited in-depth research on the foreign new energy vehicle market, which may affect the comprehensiveness of international comparative analysis.

Future research directions that can be explored

1. The impact of policies on regional markets: Subsequent research can further analyze how policy differences in different regions affect the performance of the new energy vehicle market, especially in regions with significant differences in economic development levels.
2. Detailed comparison of international markets: In the future, we can further explore the competitive differences between China’s new energy vehicle industry and other countries (such as the United States and Europe), analyze the similarities and differences in technological paths and market expansion strategies.
3. Dynamic analysis of technological innovation: Further study how technological innovation within the new energy vehicle industry affects its global market share, and analyze the long-term impact of different technological paths on the economy, especially the driving role of technological breakthroughs in the fields of intelligent connected vehicles and autonomous driving on the economy.

Through further in-depth research and data refinement, the overall impact of the new energy vehicle industry on China’s economic development can be more accurately evaluated, and more detailed recommendations can be provided for policy makers.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This paper results from an academic exercise for EPPE3996 funded by EP-2018-001 at the Faculty of Economics and Management, University Kembangan Malaysia.

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