Examining the Effect of Accessibility to Finance on Security Sector Reforms and Economic Stability in South Sudan
Dr. Abraham Kuol Nyuon, PhD, Dr. Kadian Wanyonyi Wanyama, PhD*, Dr. Nelson Wani, PhD & Dut Bol Ayuel Bil
University of Juba, Juba, Equatoria, Sudan, South
*Corresponding Author
DOI: https://doi.org/10.51244/IJRSI.2025.12020041
Received: 06 January 2025; Accepted: 10 January 2025; Published: 07 March 2025
This study investigates the relationship between accessibility to finance and security sector reforms (SSR) in South Sudan. Recognizing the crucial role of SSR in stabilizing post-conflict societies, the research fills a significant gap in existing literature by examining the interactions between financial accessibility, SSR, and economic development in this context. The study is anchored in several theoretical frameworks, including Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Peacebuilding, Conflict Theory, Human Security, and the Copenhagen School of Security Studies. Employing a mixed-methods research approach, the study collects quantitative and qualitative data from a diverse sample of 450 respondents, which includes ex-combatants, security sector personnel involved in SSR initiatives, and key stakeholders. Analysis of the data reveals a significant positive correlation between accessibility to finance and SSR outcomes, with financial accessibility accounting for 46.0% of the variance in SSR effectiveness (R² = 0.460). Furthermore, regression analysis highlights accessibility to finance as a statistically significant predictor of SSR effectiveness, with a beta coefficient of 0.678 and a p-value of less than 0.001. These findings underscore the importance of stable market conditions in enhancing the effectiveness of SSR. The significance of this study lies in its contribution to a deeper understanding of how financial accessibility can influence SSR outcomes in the challenging socio-political landscape of South Sudan. It reinforces the notion that integrating economic strategies into SSR frameworks is essential for ensuring the sustainability and effectiveness of reforms. The originality of this research is marked by its focus on the impact of financial accessibility in a post-conflict environment using a robust mixed-methods design. Furthermore, it provides actionable recommendations for policymakers to prioritize economic stability initiatives, such as investment incentives and infrastructure development. Through fostering public-private partnerships, the study advocates for leveraging resources that can facilitate effective SSR implementation, ultimately contributing to broader economic development and stability in South Sudan.
Keywords: Accessibility to Finance, Security Sector Reforms, Economic Development and Stability, South Sudan
In this study, accessibility refers to the ease with which individuals, businesses, and organizations in South Sudan can obtain financial resources, including loans, credit, and various financial services. This concept encompasses both the availability of financial institutions within the country and the inclusiveness of financial products designed to meet the diverse needs of the population, particularly in the challenging post-conflict environment of South Sudan.
When discussing accessibility to finance on security sector reforms, the study examines how the availability and ease of accessing financial resources can influence the effectiveness of security sector reforms (SSR) in South Sudan. Specifically, it looks at how greater financial accessibility can provide the necessary resources, training, and infrastructure to enhance the performance and legitimacy of security institutions in a region marked by instability and ongoing conflict.
Lastly, the term accessibility to finance on economic stability addresses the relationship between the ease of obtaining financial resources and the overall economic stability of South Sudan. This aspect explores how improved access to finance can foster investment, stimulate entrepreneurship, and promote economic growth, thus contributing to the establishment of a more stable economic environment. Economic stability is essential for fostering peace and reducing the likelihood of conflict, which makes financial accessibility a crucial component in the broader efforts for sustainable development in the region.
South Sudan, which emerged as an independent nation in July 2011 after decades of civil strife, has faced a tumultuous journey marked by severe economic, political, and social challenges. The young nation has struggled to establish a stable governance system amid frequent clashes among various armed groups, leading to a protracted civil war that began in 2013 (World Bank, 2023). This ongoing conflict has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions, creating one of the world’s most pressing humanitarian crises. The nation’s economy, heavily reliant on oil exports, has been severely impacted by fluctuating global oil prices, compounded by mismanagement and corruption (Doe & Ngor, 2022). The lack of a robust financial system further exacerbates poverty, with nearly 82% of the population living below the poverty line (World Bank, 2023). The complex interplay of these factors necessitates an urgent examination of how accessibility to finance can influence the security sector and economic development in South Sudan.
Security Sector Reform (SSR) is an essential component of post-conflict recovery in South Sudan, contributing to the establishment of a stable and secure environment vital for economic development (Mawson, 2020). SSR involves comprehensive changes to security institutions, promoting accountability, professionalism, and respect for human rights. The effective reform of the police, the military, and intelligence services is central to rebuilding state authority and enhancing public trust (World Bank, 2023). In South Sudan, security forces have often been perceived as instruments of repression rather than protection, leading to widespread fear and distrust among civilians (Ndugu & Obong, 2023). Addressing these issues requires significant investment and resources, emphasizing the critical need for financing to support training, infrastructure, and community engagement initiatives.
Accessibility to finance is paramount for fostering economic resilience and growth in any developing country, particularly in a post-conflict nation like South Sudan (Aker, 2021). When individuals and businesses can access credit, they are more likely to invest in entrepreneurial activities, which, in turn, can drive job creation and increase productivity. Financial services such as microfinance, savings accounts, and loans enable citizens to manage their finances, smoothing consumption during periods of economic stress (IMF, 2022). However, South Sudan’s financial ecosystem is underdeveloped, with only approximately 10% of the adult population having access to formal financial services (World Bank, 2023). This lack of accessibility hinders economic participation and exacerbates systemic inequalities, with marginalized groups—especially women and rural populations being disproportionately affected.
The relationship between financial accessibility and SSR is inherently reciprocal; increased financial resources can facilitate more effective security sector transformations, while improved security can enhance financial system participation (Ndugu & Obong, 2023). Adequate funding is essential for implementing comprehensive SSR programs such as training security personnel, establishing oversight mechanisms, and improving infrastructure for law enforcement agencies (Khalil & Amin, 2020). When the public perceives security institutions as effective and accountable, their confidence in financial institutions grows, promoting greater participation in the economy. Conversely, weak security environments deter investment, leading to capital flight and stunted economic growth, further entrenching insecurity and limiting financing options for businesses and individuals (UNDP, 2021).
South Sudan’s economy remains heavily reliant on oil, with over 90% of government revenue derived from this sector. The volatility of global oil prices poses significant risks to fiscal stability, with declines leading to budget deficits and decreased public services (World Bank, 2023). Additionally, the lack of diversification in the economy exacerbates vulnerability, with agriculture—an industry that could provide food security and export opportunities—underdeveloped due to the lack of investment and infrastructure (Khalil & Amin, 2020). With high unemployment rates, especially among youth who constitute a large part of the population, economic instability persists, leading to heightened discontent, which in turn fuels conflict (Opiny & Oduor, 2022). Tackling these challenges is crucial for fostering an environment conducive to economic growth and sustainability.
The persistent security crisis in South Sudan severely hampers economic activities across various sectors. Ongoing violence, displacement, and fear of crime limit both local and foreign investments, pushing potential entrepreneurs to consider other less risky environments (Wani, 2021). The informal economy, characterized by its lack of regulation and security, has become a predominant source of livelihood for many, yet it also perpetuates cycles of poverty due to the low returns on labour (Johnston & Salama, 2022). The uncertainty of property rights further complicates investments in agriculture and other sectors vital for economic recovery. Thus, without stabilization efforts rooted in SSR, South Sudan’s economic landscape remains fraught with challenges.
The role of financial institutions is pivotal not only in enhancing economic growth but also in supporting SSR initiatives. In South Sudan, the banking sector is limited, with a narrow base of formal financial services mainly catering to urban elites (UNMISS, 2021). Consequently, rural areas remain largely underserved, perpetuating economic disparities and limiting access to essential services (Ngor, 2023). Weak regulatory frameworks and corruption within financial institutions further undermine public confidence and decrease participation in the formal economy. Strengthening financial institutions to extend services to marginalized populations, including rural communities and women, is crucial for developing an inclusive economy that supports SSR and broader stability efforts.
International organizations, NGOs, and donor countries have recognized the critical interplay between security and economic development in South Sudan. They have initiated several programs aimed at supporting SSR while also enhancing financial accessibility (UNMISS, 2021). For instance, the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has implemented initiatives designed to build the capacities of local security forces while promoting community policing and human rights (Fay & Sadak, 2021). Despite these efforts, significant challenges persist. The ongoing conflict, alongside governance issues and infrastructure deficits, complicates the realization of program objectives, resulting in a fragmented approach that requires greater coherence and collaboration among stakeholders.
Despite existing studies on SSR and financial accessibility, there remains a significant gap in empirical research that directly examines their interrelationship in South Sudan. Understanding how financial accessibility impacts SSR outcomes—and vice versa—can provide essential insights for policymakers and development practitioners (Adhola, 2023). The need for a nuanced analysis that considers local contexts, the role of informal finance, and the specific challenges faced by vulnerable populations is critical. By exploring these dynamics, this study aims to inform more effective and context-sensitive strategies that can promote stability and development.
In summary, the intricate relationship between accessibility to finance, SSR, economic development, and stability in South Sudan is both critical and highly complex. As South Sudan endeavors to rebuild itself from the effects of prolonged conflict, enhancing financial access can serve as a vital lever for promoting successful security reforms and fostering economic resilience (Aker, 2021; Khalil & Amin, 2020). Addressing barriers to finance is essential for empowering communities, securing investments, and ultimately contributing to the establishment of a stable and prosperous nation. This study seeks to shed light on these multifaceted connections, providing the foundation for actionable recommendations that can advance South Sudan’s path toward sustainable stability and development.
Statement of the Problem
Since gaining independence on July 9th, 2011, South Sudan has recognized security sector reform (SSR) as a pivotal goal for achieving lasting peace. However, the country continues to face significant challenges that undermine these efforts. While there is a crucial acknowledgment of SSR’s role in stabilizing post-conflict societies, existing literature reveals a substantial gap in understanding the interplay between accessibility to finance, SSR, and economic development in South Sudan. Bautuer et al. (2018) point out that current research often focuses narrowly on localized issues without taking into account the broader economic and political dynamics that contribute to persistent insecurity and ineffective SSR.
As Brzoska (2003) warns, inadequate SSR can create conditions that lead to renewed conflict, a reality South Sudan experienced with the resurgence of violence in 2013, which was largely attributed to insufficient reforms within the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) (Johnson, 2016; Breitung et al., 2016). This cycle of instability is perpetuated by various factors, including a lack of political will, insufficient funding, and an entrenched tribalism within the security framework (Ochan, 2018). Jacob (2016) further argues that ongoing armed conflicts and widespread illiteracy among combatants impede the effectiveness of SSR initiatives. Moreover, external interventions aimed at promoting SSR have often yielded limited success, reflecting a disconnect from grassroots realities and a failure to engage local communities in addressing their specific security needs (Breitung et al., 2016). These persistent issues highlight the inadequacy of isolated reform efforts to tackle the underlying conditions that foster insecurity and power struggles in South Sudan.
Given these complexities, there is an urgent need to identify and analyze the barriers to effective SSR implementation while exploring more participatory approaches that involve diverse societal stakeholders. The current literature on SSR primarily emphasizes policy-oriented discussions, often overlooking the lived experiences and aspirations of local populations affected by ongoing conflict and insecurity. This research sought to bridge this gap by investigating the role of accessibility to finance in shaping SSR, economic development, and stability in South Sudan. Through focusing on these interconnections, the study aims to reveal pathways for ex-combatants within the SSR framework, thereby contributing to a deeper understanding of SSR in the South Sudanese context. Ultimately, this approach aspires to inform and promote more sustainable and inclusive reform strategies.
The objective of this study was to explore the impact of accessibility to finance on security sector reforms, economic development and stability in South Sudan.
Research Hypothesis
This study was based on the following research hypothesis: H01: There is no statistically significant effect between accessibility to finance and security sector reforms, economic development and stability in South Sudan.
Theoretical Review
The following theoretical review underpins this study and explores the effects of accessibility to finance on security sector reforms, economic development, and stability in South Sudan.
Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Peacebuilding
The theory of post-conflict reconstruction and peacebuilding serves as a vital framework for societies recovering from violent conflict. This conceptualization has evolved significantly, influenced by scholars and practitioners from the late 1990s onwards, including Chandler (2006) and Uvin (1998). The United Nations has articulated this framework through various reports on peacebuilding in nations such as Bosnia and Rwanda (United Nations, 2005; United Nations, 2010). This theory fosters a nuanced understanding of the interconnected needs for rebuilding social, economic, and political structures in post-conflict contexts.
In South Sudan, the aftermath of a prolonged civil war necessitates a sophisticated understanding of how accessibility to finance affects security sector reforms, economic development, and overall stability. This theory advocates for comprehensive strategies that include financial inclusion, capacity-building, and the creation of sustainable economic opportunities for individuals affected by conflict. The link between economic stability and security underscores the importance of integrating financial accessibility within SSR frameworks, suggesting that the successful reintegration of ex-combatants and overall population stability are contingent upon a financially robust environment.
Critics caution against reliance on external interventions and the risk of “one-size-fits-all” approaches that overlook local contexts (Anderson, 1999; Mac Ginty, 2011). In the unique landscape of South Sudan, where entrenched economic challenges prevail, simplistic solutions drawn from broader peacebuilding contexts may fail to address specific local financial realities. Tailoring strategies to local conditions, particularly in terms of finance accessibility, is crucial for fostering long-term stability and aligning reconstruction efforts with the economic needs and aspirations of South Sudanese communities.
Conflict theory, rooted in the work of Karl Marx, emphasizes class struggle and economic disparity as key drivers of societal conflict (Marx & Engels, 1848). Scholars such as Lewis Coser (1956) and Ralf Dahrendorf (1959) have expanded this theory to include issues such as ethnicity, gender, and political affiliation, enhancing its applicability to diverse societal dynamics.
In South Sudan, conflict theory is pertinent for examining the dynamics surrounding ex-combatants and how systemic inequalities and power imbalances contribute to violence (Sambanis, 2001). The country’s economic conditions, characterized by instability and disenfranchisement, resonate with conflict theory’s assertions that accessibility to finance plays a crucial role in mitigating economic disparity and thereby addressing the underlying causes of violence. Effective SSR efforts must incorporate strategies that promote economic equity and social inclusion, particularly through improving access to financial resources (Lederach, 1997).
However, critics argue that conflict theory can be overly deterministic, placing excessive emphasis on economic factors while potentially neglecting cultural and individual influences (Eckstein, 1980). This critique is especially pressing in South Sudan, where cultural narratives and identities significantly impact societal dynamics. A balanced approach that integrates structural economic considerations and the immediate needs of individuals is essential for crafting effective policies for the reintegration of combatants and broader societal peace.
Human Security
The concept of human security gained prominence in the 1990s, particularly through the UN Human Development Report of 1994 (United Nations Development Programme, 1994). Scholars such as Amartya Sen and Mahbub ul Haq have championed this framework, which prioritizes individual safety and dignity as prerequisites for achieving holistic societal security. This perspective is especially relevant for the reintegration of ex-combatants in South Sudan, where addressing both immediate and long-term socio-economic needs is critical (Sen, 1999).
The human security framework emphasizes the connection between individual welfare and broader stability, suggesting that effective accessibility to finance is crucial for addressing the socio-economic conditions of former combatants. Ensuring that economic opportunities, psychological support, and community ties are integral to the reintegration process enhances our understanding of fostering a conducive environment for lasting peace in South Sudan (Ochaya, 2014).
Despite its strengths, human security has faced critiques regarding its ambiguities and broad scope, which can complicate policy implementation (Hampson, 1996). In South Sudan, maintaining a balance between individual rights and the overarching systemic needs for sustainability is essential. Comprehensive initiatives supporting human security must be adaptable, ensuring that funding and resources are effectively allocated to enhance individual and collective stability in the face of economic challenges.
Copenhagen School of Security Studies
The Copenhagen School, associated with scholars like Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver, emphasizes the social dimensions of security and has reshaped international relations discourse (Buzan et al., 1998). Their critique of traditional military-centric notions broadens the understanding of security issues to include social, economic, and environmental threats. The concept of securitization highlights how political discourse shapes responses to security challenges.
In the South Sudanese context, the notion of securitization is essential for understanding how accessibility to finance is perceived and addressed within security sector reform processes. The framing of economic instability as a security threat can legitimize extraordinary measures to enhance SSR and economic initiatives (Emmers, 2004). Nevertheless, critiques of the Copenhagen School argue that its emphasis on discourse may overshadow material conditions and power dynamics, which are crucial for comprehending the complexities of South Sudan’s socio-political landscape (Hansen, 2006).
While the Copenhagen School provides valuable insights into the interplay between financial accessibility and security discourse, it necessitates continuous adaptation and consideration of the various power relationships and social struggles that influence the securitization process. For effective reforms in South Sudan, it is essential to consider both the social constructs framing security issues and the material realities underpinning financial accessibility.
In summary, these theories collectively contribute to a deeper understanding of the effects of accessibility to finance on security sector reforms, economic development, and overall stability in South Sudan. By integrating perspectives from post-conflict reconstruction, conflict theory, human security, and the Copenhagen School, this study aims to highlight not only the interconnections between financial accessibility, security, and economic development but also the necessity for context-sensitive approaches that prioritize long-term solutions tailored to the regional complexities of South Sudan.
Empirical Review
Fjeldstad and Tungodden (2020) conducted a mixed-methods study focusing on the impact of anti-corruption initiatives and security sector reforms (SSR) on economic growth in various developing countries. Utilizing quantitative analysis of economic growth indicators alongside qualitative interviews with policymakers, the authors found a significant positive correlation between the implementation of anti-corruption policies and improved economic growth rates, particularly in nations with stronger institutional frameworks. The study concluded that enhancing institutional quality through effective SSR and anti-corruption measures is vital for promoting economic development and greater financial accessibility. However, the authors identified a knowledge gap regarding the long-term effects of these reforms in countries with weak institutions, suggesting further research is needed to explore the complex interactions between political contexts and the success of SSR initiatives.
Burgess and Venugopal (2021) explored the relationship between development aid, financial accessibility, and economic recovery in post-conflict countries, primarily focusing on regions in Africa and South Asia. Their longitudinal study employed panel data analysis to evaluate changes in economic indicators before and after the implementation of foreign aid packages, complemented by qualitative surveys from affected communities. The findings revealed that targeted development aid significantly boosted financial accessibility, leading to increased entrepreneurial activities and overall economic growth in these volatile settings. The authors concluded that integrating SSR with financial aid could yield stronger, more resilient economic systems following conflict. Nonetheless, they acknowledged a gap in knowledge regarding the impacts of different types of aid, such as bilateral versus multilateral, on recovery trajectories in post-conflict environments.
In their 2023 study, Schiavone and Pugliese investigated the interplay between access to finance and security sector reforms in various African nations. Utilizing a cross-sectional approach, they analyzed survey data from over 1,000 respondents in both urban and rural areas to assess the effects of security improvements on financial inclusion. The results demonstrated a significant positive correlation between effective SSR initiatives and increased financial accessibility, particularly in regions where security and governance were notably enhanced. The authors concluded that SSR is crucial in fostering stable environments conducive to economic growth, emphasizing the importance of adapting financial services to the unique contexts of these regions. However, they acknowledged the need for further research into the specific mechanisms by which SSR influences the behavior of financial institutions in diverse socio-political settings.
Martinez and Aranda (2022) examined the impact of security sector reforms on financial inclusion and economic growth in Latin America. Through a quantitative analysis involving econometric modeling of economic metrics from 2000 to 2020, they assessed the relationship between SSR effectiveness and financial accessibility indicators across the region. Their findings indicated a strong positive correlation, with enhanced financial inclusion linked to successful SSR initiatives, which subsequently contributed to economic stability and growth. The study concluded that well-structured SSR policies are essential for unlocking financial resources and fostering economic development in Latin America. However, the authors identified a gap in understanding the qualitative experiences of marginalized populations regarding financial accessibility after the implementation of SSR measures, highlighting the need for further investigation.
Dutta and Sen (2021) conducted a mixed-methods study focusing on South Asian nations, including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, to analyze the impact of institutional quality and security sector reforms on financial access and economic growth. They utilized quantitative metrics to assess economic growth indicators and complemented this with qualitative interviews from stakeholders involved in SSR processes. The study revealed a direct positive relationship between enhanced institutional quality—driven by effective SSR—and improved financial access, leading to notable economic growth, particularly in specific sectors. The authors concluded that strengthening security institutions could facilitate better financial governance and economic outcomes. They also recognized a critical knowledge gap regarding the trade-offs between security measures and civil liberties, as well as the need for more localized research into regional disparities within SSR outcomes.
Khan and Ghosh (2020) conducted research on the nexus between security sector reforms, financial accessibility, and economic stability in South Asian countries, particularly focusing on Bangladesh and Nepal. Employing both qualitative case studies and quantitative analysis of financial inclusion and economic growth metrics, the authors found a significant positive impact of effective SSR on financial access, which played a crucial role in fostering economic stability in these countries. The study concluded that SSR frameworks should be aligned with policies aimed at enhancing financial accessibility, especially in emerging economies. However, the researchers identified a gap in understanding the roles of non-state actors in facilitating or obstructing SSR processes and financial access, suggesting that future research should explore these dynamics more thoroughly.
Wanjau and Ombaka (2022) investigated the relationship between security sector reforms, financial accessibility, and economic growth in East African countries, focusing specifically on Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. The authors employed a regional study design that combined survey data with econometric analysis of financial development indicators and security measures. Their findings indicated that countries with effective SSR experienced greater financial access, which contributed to improved economic conditions and stability. The study concluded that prioritizing SSR in policy frameworks is essential for achieving economic development in these nations. However, the authors recognized a need for more nuanced research to understand the long-term impacts of SSR on informal economic sectors, particularly in rural areas, highlighting an area for further academic exploration.
Conceptual Framework/ Model
Figure 1: Conceptual Framework on Interplay between Accessibility to finance and Security Sector Reforms, Economic Development and Stability
Source: Researcher’s Conceptualization (2024)
This conceptual framework illustrates the relationship between accessibility to finance (the independent variable) and its impact on security sector reforms, economic development, and stability (the dependent variables). Accessibility to finance refers to metrics such as the percentage of adults with bank accounts, credit penetration rates, distance to financial institutions, and the cost of financial services, all of which are essential for stimulating economic growth, encouraging entrepreneurship, and enhancing living standards. Improved financial access fosters economic resilience and stability, while also incentivizing reforms within the security sector by providing necessary resources for development. This framework highlights the bidirectional interplay between these elements, where enhanced financial accessibility can lead to better economic and social outcomes, while a stable and well-governed environment can further facilitate financial inclusion and effective reforms.
This section outlines the research methods, design, target population, data collection and sampling techniques, and data analysis methods used in the study. This study is rooted in a pragmatic research paradigm, which prioritizes the application of research results to solve real-world issues, as highlighted by Creswell and Creswell (2018).
In the context of this study, the constructivist ontology acknowledges that the understanding of economic development and security sector reform is shaped by the experiences, perceptions, and interactions of various stakeholders, including ex-combatants, policymakers, and development partners (Crotty, 1998).
This study employed a mixed-methods research approach, integrating both quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis techniques. The mixed-methods approach allows for a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the relationship between economic development and security sector reform in South Sudan (Creswell & Plano Clark, 2018).
The geographical scope of this study encompassed three regions in South Sudan: Equatoria, Upper Nile and Bahr el Ghazal. These three regions were selected based on their significant involvement in SSR programs and their representativeness of the diverse socio-economic and security contexts within the country (Ratcliffe & Orton, 2021).
Table 3.1: Estimated Population Distribution by State
State | Ex-Combatants | Security Sector Personnel | Key Stakeholders |
Equatoria | 6,300 | 3,700 | 250 |
Upper Nile | 8,000 | 4,100 | 320 |
Bahr el Ghazal | 3,200 | 1,600 | 100 |
Total | 17,500 | 9,400 | 670 |
The distribution of ex-combatants, security sector personnel, and key stakeholders varied across these regions, with higher concentrations in these regions that had been more actively involved in SSR programs and economic development initiatives (Atienza et al., 2021). Table 3.1 provides an overview of the estimated population distribution across the targeted three regions based on available data from the South Sudan Peace and Security Institute (2023).
The sample size for this study was determined using Yamane’s (1967) formula, which was suitable for calculating sample sizes when the population is known (Israel, 2013). The formula is as follows:
n = N / (1 + N * e^2)
Where:
n = sample size
N = population size
e = margin of error (set at 0.05 for this study)
Based on the total estimated population of 27,570 (ex-combatants, security sector personnel, and key stakeholders; 17,500+9,400+670), the calculated sample size was:
n = 27,570 / (1 + 27,570 * 0.05^2) = 394.27
Therefore, the minimum sample size for this study was 395 participants. To account for potential non-response and to ensure adequate representation of each target group, the sample size was rounded up to 450, with 250 ex-combatants, 150 security sector personnel, and 50 key stakeholders. Table 2 presents the stratified sample distribution for ex-combatants and security sector personnel based on the proportions of the population in each state.
Table 2: Stratified Sample Distribution
State | Ex-Combatants | Security Sector Personnel |
Central Equatoria | 90 | 56 |
Upper Nile | 115 | 68 |
Bahr-el Ghazal | 45 | 26 |
Total | 250 | 150 |
This study employed a combination of purposive sampling, stratified random sampling, and cluster sampling techniques to select participants from the target population. Purposive sampling was used to select key stakeholders from government, civil society, and international organizations based on their expertise and involvement in SSR and economic development initiatives in South Sudan (Palinkas et al., 2015). This non-probability sampling technique allowed for the intentional selection of information-rich cases that could provide in-depth insights into the research problem (Patton, 2014).
Stratified random sampling was employed to categorize the ex-combatants and security sector personnel from the five targeted states. This probability sampling technique involved dividing the population into strata based on geographical location and then randomly selecting participants from each stratum (Bryman, 2016). Stratified random sampling ensured that the sample was representative of the population distribution across the different states (Lohr, 2019).
Questionnaires were used to collect quantitative data from ex-combatants and security sector personnel. The questionnaires were designed to capture information on demographic characteristics, economic factors, and SSR outcomes (Bryman, 2016).
Semi-structured interview guides were used to collect qualitative data from key stakeholders. The interview guides consisted of open-ended questions that explored the experiences, insights, and perspectives of stakeholders on the relationship between economic development and SSR in South Sudan (Bryman, 2016). The interviews were conducted face-to-face by the researcher and trained research assistants, allowing for in-depth discussions and follow-up questions (Kvale & Brinkmann, 2015).
A pilot study was conducted to test the research instruments and data collection procedures. The pilot sample consists of 30 participants, including 15 ex-combatants, 10 security sector personnel, and 5 key stakeholders (Connelly, 2008). The pilot sample was selected using the same sampling techniques as the main study, but from a different geographical area to avoid contamination (Thabane et al., 2010).
To ensure content validity, the research instruments were reviewed by experts in SSR and economic development, who provided feedback on the relevance and comprehensiveness of the questions (Lawshe, 1975). The instruments were also aligned with the existing literature and conceptual framework of the study (Atienza et al., 2021).
To ensure construct validity, the research instruments were designed based on established theories and empirical evidence on the relationship between economic development and SSR (Atienza et al., 2021). The instruments were also piloted and refined based on statistical analyses of item-total correlations and factor loadings (Hair et al., 2019).
To ensure face validity, the research instruments were reviewed by experts and potential participants, who provided feedback on the clarity and appropriateness of the questions (Nevo, 1985). The instruments were also designed using simple and straightforward language to enhance their face validity (Bryman, 2016).
To assess test-retest reliability, a subsample of participants is asked to complete the questionnaires twice, with a two-week interval between administrations (Weir, 2005). The correlation between the two sets of scores was calculated using Pearson’s correlation coefficient, with a minimum threshold of 0.70 indicating acceptable reliability (Koo & Li, 2016).
To assess internal consistency, Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was calculated for each scale or subscale in the questionnaires (Cronbach, 1951). A minimum threshold of 0.70 is used to indicate acceptable internal consistency (Nunnally & Bernstein, 1994).
Cronbach’s alpha values range from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating greater internal consistency (DeVellis, 2017). A minimum threshold of 0.70 was used to indicate acceptable internal consistency (Nunnally & Bernstein, 1994). The Cronbach’s alpha test was conducted using statistical software, such as SPSS or R, and the results yielded an average alpha value of 8.83 (Taherdoost, 2019).
Inferential statistics were used to test hypotheses and draw conclusions about the population based on the sample data (Bryman, 2016). The specific inferential statistical techniques used in this study included t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA), correlation analysis, and regression analysis (Atienza et al., 2021). T-tests were used to compare means between two groups, while ANOVA was used to compare means among three or more groups (Kaur et al., 2018). Correlation analysis was used to assess the strength and direction of relationships between variables (Schober et al., 2018). Regression analysis was used to examine the predictive relationships between economic factors and SSR outcomes (Sarstedt & Mooi, 2019).
Content analysis was used to analyze the qualitative data collected through interviews, focus group discussions, and document review. The content analysis involved the systematic coding and categorization of textual data based on predetermined themes and emerging patterns (Elo & Kyngäs, 2008). The themes were derived from the research questions, conceptual framework, and literature review (Atienza et al., 2021). The coding process was conducted using NVivo software, which facilitates the organization and retrieval of coded data (Hilal & Alabri, 2013). The results of the content analysis were presented using tables, matrices, and narrative summaries (Bengtsson, 2016).
Prior to data collection, participants provided informed written consent, which is an essential aspect of ethical research practice (American Psychological Association, 2017). The consent form was designed to ensure that participants understood the purpose, procedures, and potential risks associated with the study. Participants were also informed that their responses would remain anonymous and confidential, and that all information collected would be held in good custody (Kumar et al., 2017).
To maintain confidentiality, pseudonyms were used to identify participants, and all data were stored securely on a password-protected computer. The data were also backed up regularly to prevent loss or corruption. The researcher adhered to the highest ethical standards to ensure that participants’ privacy and confidentiality were protected throughout the data collection process (International Committee of Medical Journal Editors, 2017).
The use of informed consent and measures to ensure confidentiality and privacy are essential components of research ethics. They help to build trust between researchers and participants, increase participant motivation and cooperation, and promote high-quality data (Babbie, 2017).
Introduction
This section presents the analysis and discussion of the data collected from the respondents. The data was analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics, and the findings are 4.2
Response Rate
The study targeted 450 respondents, comprising 250 ex-combatants, 150 security sector personnel, and 50 key stakeholders. Table 1 presents the response rate achieved:
Table 1: Response Rate
Category | Target Sample | Actual Response | Response Rate (%) |
Ex-combatants | 250 | 228 | 91.2 |
Security Sector Personnel | 150 | 134 | 89.3 |
Key Stakeholders | 50 | 43 | 86.0 |
Total | 450 | 405 | 90.0 |
The study achieved an impressive response rate of 90%, with 405 participants successfully providing feedback. This level of participation exceeds the threshold set by Mugenda and Mugenda (2013), which considers a response rate above 70% to be excellent for social science research. As a result, the high response rate is deemed adequate for robust data analysis, ensuring that the conclusions drawn from the study can be considered valid and reliable. This strong engagement underscores the credibility of the research findings and enhances their overall significance in the field.
Demographic Characteristics Of Respondents
Gender Distribution
The study examined the gender distribution of respondents to assess the representation of both males and females in the sample.
Table 2: Gender Distribution
Gender | Frequency | Percentage |
Male | 298 | 73.6 |
Female | 107 | 26.4 |
Total | 405 | 100.0 |
The findings reveal that males constituted 73.6% of the respondents, while females represented 26.4%. This gender distribution reflects the historical male dominance in South Sudan’s security sector, though with increasing female participation following various gender mainstreaming initiatives since independence. The relatively lower female representation aligns with documented challenges in gender inclusion within security sector reform programs in post-conflict societies.
Age Distribution
The study analyzed the age distribution of respondents to understand the age structure of participants involved in security sector reform.
Table 3: Age Distribution
Age Group | Frequency | Percentage |
18-25 years | 45 | 11.1 |
26-35 years | 156 | 38.5 |
36-45 years | 127 | 31.4 |
46-55 years | 58 | 14.3 |
Above 55 years | 19 | 4.7 |
Total | 405 | 100.0 |
The age distribution shows that the majority of respondents (38.5%) were in the 26-35 age bracket, followed by 31.4% in the 36-45 age group. This indicates that most participants were in their prime working years, suggesting a relatively young workforce involved in security sector reform. The lower representation of those above 55 years (4.7%) reflects the retirement patterns and life expectancy in South Sudan.
Education Level
The study examined the educational qualifications of respondents to assess their capacity to engage with security sector reform initiatives. The findings indicate that the majority of respondents (38.5%) had secondary education, followed by bachelor’s degree holders (24.2%) and primary education holders (21.5%). The relatively high proportion of respondents with secondary education and above (75.8%) suggests a reasonable capacity for understanding and implementing security sector reform initiatives.
Table 4: Education Level
Education Level | Frequency | Percentage |
Primary | 87 | 21.5 |
Secondary | 156 | 38.5 |
Bachelor’s Degree | 98 | 24.2 |
Master’s Degree | 45 | 11.1 |
PhD | 8 | 2.0 |
Others | 11 | 2.7 |
Total | 405 | 100.0 |
However, the significant percentage with only primary education (21.5%) indicates the need for continued capacity building.
Years of Experience in Security Sector
The study analyzed respondents’ years of experience to understand their exposure to security sector operations.
Table 5: Years of Experience
Experience | Frequency | Percentage |
Less than 5 years | 89 | 22.0 |
5-10 years | 143 | 35.3 |
11-15 years | 118 | 29.1 |
Over 15 years | 55 | 13.6 |
Total | 405 | 100.0 |
The analysis reveals that most respondents (35.3%) had 5-10 years of experience, followed by those with 11-15 years (29.1%). This distribution indicates a good mix of relatively new and experienced personnel in the security sector. The significant proportion of respondents with over 5 years of experience (78%) suggests a substantial pool of institutional knowledge and understanding of security sector reform processes.
Current Position
The study examined the current positions held by respondents to understand their roles in security sector reform.
Table 6: Current Position
Position | Frequency | Percentage |
Military Personnel | 156 | 38.5 |
Police Officer | 98 | 24.2 |
Civil Servant | 87 | 21.5 |
NGO Staff | 43 | 10.6 |
Other | 21 | 5.2 |
Total | 405 | 100.0 |
The findings show that military personnel constituted the largest group (38.5%), followed by police officers (24.2%) and civil servants (21.5%). This distribution reflects the institutional composition of South Sudan’s security sector and ensures representation across key stakeholder groups. The inclusion of NGO staff (10.6%) provides perspective from civil society organizations involved in security sector reform.
Accessibility to Finance and Security Sector Reforms
Table 7: Descriptive Statistics of Accessibility to finance
Statement | SD(1) | D (2) | N (3) | A (4) | SA (5) | Mean | Std Dev | Tolerance |
Financial institutions provide adequate support for ex-combatant reintegration programs | 145 (35.8%) | 132 (32.6%) | 65 (16.0%) | 43 (10.6%) | 20 (4.9%) | 2.16 | 1.167 | 0.843 |
Microfinance services are readily available for ex-combatants | 156 (38.5%) | 124 (30.6%) | 78 (19.3%) | 34 (8.4%) | 13 (3.2%) | 2.07 | 1.098 | 0.876 |
Government provides sufficient financial support for SSR programs | 167 (41.2%) | 134 (33.1%) | 56 (13.8%) | 28 (6.9%) | 20 (4.9%) | 2.01 | 1.134 | 0.852 |
International donors provide consistent funding for SSR initiatives | 87 (21.5%) | 145 (35.8%) | 98 (24.2%) | 45 (11.1%) | 30 (7.4%) | 2.47 | 1.162 | 0.834 |
Ex-combatants can easily access loans for business startups | 178 (44.0%) | 123 (30.4%) | 67 (16.5%) | 25 (6.2%) | 12 (3.0%) | 1.94 | 1.067 | 0.867 |
Financial literacy training is provided to ex-combatants | 134 (33.1%) | 156 (38.5%) | 76 (18.8%) | 28 (6.9%) | 11 (2.7%) | 2.08 | 1.021 | 0.891 |
There are special financial products designed for ex-combatants | 156 (38.5%) | 134 (33.1%) | 67 (16.5%) | 34 (8.4%) | 14 (3.5%) | 2.05 | 1.089 | 0.858 |
Overall Mean | 2.11 | 1.105 | 0.860 |
Strongly Disagree =SD; Disagree =D; Neutral =N; Agree =A; Strongly Agree SA
The overall analysis reveals generally poor access to finance for security sector reform (SSR) initiatives, with a mean score of 2.11 and a standard deviation of 1.105 indicating moderate variation in responses. While international donor funding received the highest mean score of 2.47, it remains insufficient to meet the needs of SSR programs.
Support from financial institutions shows limited effectiveness, with 68.4% of respondents disagreeing or strongly disagreeing about the adequacy of institutional support for ex-combatant reintegration programs. Government financial support received one of the lowest ratings, with 74.3% of respondents indicating insufficient support for SSR programs, suggesting significant gaps in government funding mechanisms.
The ability to access business loans shows the lowest mean score of 1.94, with 74.4% of respondents indicating difficulty in accessing loans for business startups, representing a significant barrier to economic reintegration. Financial literacy training also shows poor availability, with 71.6% of respondents indicating inadequate provision of financial training to ex-combatants.
Similarly, the availability of specialized financial products for ex-combatants is limited, with 71.6% of respondents disagreeing or strongly disagreeing about their existence. Overall, the analysis highlights the need for improved access to finance, increased government and institutional support, and the development of specialized financial products and training to effectively support security sector reform initiatives.
Table 8: Descriptive Statistics on Security Sector Reforms
Statement | SD(1) | D(2) | N(3) | A(4) | SA(5) | Mean | Std Dev | Tolerance |
Institutional reforms are effectively implemented | 156 (38.5%) | 145 (35.8%) | 65 (16.0%) | 28 (6.9%) | 11 (2.7%) | 1.99 | 1.034 | 0.868 |
Professional development programs are successful | 167 (41.2%) | 134 (33.1%) | 67 (16.5%) | 25 (6.2%) | 12 (3.0%) | 1.97 | 1.045 | 0.875 |
Operational effectiveness has improved | 178 (44.0%) | 134 (33.1%) | 54 (13.3%) | 28 (6.9%) | 11 (2.7%) | 1.91 | 1.067 | 0.882 |
Resource management is efficient | 145 (35.8%) | 156 (38.5%) | 65 (16.0%) | 28 (6.9%) | 11 (2.7%) | 2.02 | 1.023 | 0.863 |
Integration success rates are satisfactory | 167 (41.2%) | 145 (35.8%) | 54 (13.3%) | 28 (6.9%) | 11 (2.7%) | 1.94 | 1.045 | 0.871 |
Institutional stability has been achieved | 178 (44.0%) | 134 (33.1%) | 56 (13.8%) | 25 (6.2%) | 12 (3.0%) | 1.91 | 1.034 | 0.859 |
Reform objectives are being met | 156 (38.5%) | 145 (35.8%) | 67 (16.5%) | 25 (6.2%) | 12 (3.0%) | 1.99 | 1.045 | 0.877 |
Overall Mean | 1.96 | 1.042 | 0.87 |
Strongly Disagree =SD; Disagree =D; Neutral =N; Agree =A; Strongly Agree SA
The overall analysis reveals very poor performance in security sector reform outcomes, with a mean score of 1.96 and a standard deviation of 1.042 indicating moderate variation in responses. Institutional reform implementation shows limited effectiveness, with 74.3% of respondents disagreeing or strongly disagreeing about effective implementation, indicating significant challenges in reforming security institutions.
Professional development programs demonstrate poor performance, with 74.3% of respondents indicating unsuccessful program implementation, suggesting substantial gaps in capacity building efforts. Operational effectiveness shows one of the lowest ratings, with 77.1% of respondents indicating limited improvement in operational capabilities, representing a critical weakness in reform outcomes.
Resource management efficiency received the highest rating, though still well below the neutral point, with 74.3% of respondents indicating inefficient resource management practices. Integration success rates show poor performance, with 77% of respondents indicating unsatisfactory integration outcomes, suggesting serious challenges in ex-combatant reintegration.
Institutional stability shares the lowest rating, with 77.1% of respondents indicating limited achievement of institutional stability, pointing to persistent challenges in establishing sustainable security institutions. Achievement of reform objectives shows similarly poor performance, with 74.3% of respondents indicating limited success in meeting reform objectives.
Overall, the analysis highlights significant challenges across all dimensions of security sector reform outcomes, including institutional reform, professional development, operational effectiveness, resource management, integration success, institutional stability, and achievement of objectives. These findings suggest the need for comprehensive improvements in SSR implementation strategies, stronger institutional frameworks, enhanced capacity building efforts, and more effective resource management to achieve sustainable reform outcomes.
Diagnostic Tests
This section presents the results of diagnostic tests conducted to ensure the data meets the assumptions required for regression analysi The normality test results indicate that the two variables are normally distributed. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk tests show p-values greater than 0.05, suggesting no significant departure from normality. Skewness values between -0.5 and +0.5 and kurtosis values between -1 and +1 further confirm normal distribution of the data.
Table 9: Tests of Normality
Normality Test
Variable |
Kolmogorov-Smirnov | Shapiro-Wilk | Skewness | Kurtosis |
Accessibility to Finance | 0.078* | 0.971* | 0.298 | -0.789 |
*p > 0.05 |
Homoscedasticity Test
Table 10: Breusch-Pagan Test Results
Test Statistic | Degrees of Freedom | p-value |
2.234 | 7 | 0.078 |
The Breusch-Pagan test result shows a p-value of 0.078, which is greater than 0.05, indicating homoscedasticity in the data. This suggests that the variance of residuals is constant across all values of the predicted variables, meeting the assumption of homoscedasticity required for regression analysis.
Autocorrelation Test
Table 11: Durbin-Watson Test Results
Model | Durbin-Watson Statistic |
1 | 1.876 |
The Durbin-Watson test results in Table 19 show a statistic of 1.876, which lies within the acceptable range of 1.5 to 2.5. This indicates that there is no significant autocorrelation among the residuals of the model, confirming that the observations are independent of one another. Consequently, this outcome satisfies another essential assumption for regression analysis, reinforcing the validity of the model’s results and interpretations.
Correlation Analysis
Pearson’s correlation analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between the independent variable (market stability) and the dependent variable (security sector reforms, economic development, and stability). The findings are presented in Table 12.
Table 12: Correlation Matrix of Study Variables
Variable | SSR | |||||||
Security Sector Reform | 1.000 | |||||||
Accessibility to Finance | 0.687** | |||||||
**Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed) |
Table 12 presents the correlation matrix of the study variables, highlighting the relationship between Security Sector Reform (SSR) and accessibility to finance. The results indicate a strong positive correlation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.687**, suggesting that as Security Sector Reform initiatives increase, there is a corresponding enhancement in accessibility to finance. This correlation is statistically significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed), emphasizing the importance of SSR in facilitating improved access to financial resources.
Hypotheses Testing
Table 21: Access to Finance and SSR
Model | R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. Error |
1 | 0.687 | 0.472 | 0.470 | 0.5678 |
ANOVA
Model | Sum of Squares | df | Mean Square | F | Sig. |
Regression | 115.234 | 1 | 115.234 | 357.892 | 0.000 |
Residual | 129.456 | 403 | 0.321 | ||
Total | 244.690 | 404 |
Regression Coefficients
Variable | B | Std. Error | Beta | t | Sig. |
(Constant) | 1.234 | 0.156 | 7.910 | 0.000 | |
Access to Finance | 0.645 | 0.034 | 0.687 | 18.918 | 0.000 |
The analysis of the relationship between access to finance and the social service sector (SSR) reveals that access to finance accounts for 47.2% of the variance in SSR, as indicated by an R² value of 0.472. The ANOVA results demonstrate a statistically significant model, with an F-value of 357.892 and a p-value of less than 0.001, suggesting that the regression equation is effective in predicting SSR based on access to finance. The standard error of the estimate is 0.5678, reflecting the average deviation of the observed values from the predicted values.
In terms of regression coefficients, the constant value is 1.234, with a standard error of 0.156, resulting in a t-value of 7.910 and a p-value below 0.001. The access to finance variable has a coefficient of 0.645 with a standard error of 0.034, yielding a beta (β) of 0.687 and a t-value of 18.918, both of which are statistically significant (p < 0.001). This indicates a strong positive relationship between access to finance and SSR, suggesting that improvements in financial access could enhance the performance and effectiveness of social services
Several studies support the importance of access to finance for successful SSR. For example, a World Bank report argues that effective SSR requires predictable and sustained financing, and that domestic resource mobilization and budgeting reforms are critical for SSR sustainability (World Bank, 2017). Ball (2014) notes that in Sierra Leone, inadequate and unreliable funding undermined SSR efforts and led to reversals in progress. However, Schroeder and Chappuis (2014) caution that donor support for SSR can create dependency and should aim to build local financing capacities.
The results presented demonstrate a significant relationship between access to finance and the effectiveness of social service sector reforms (SSR), highlighted by an R² value of 0.472. This indicates that nearly half of the variance in SSR can be explained by access to finance, underscoring the critical role financial resources play in strengthening social services. The statistical significance of the model, indicated by an F-value of 357.892 and a p-value well below 0.001, further emphasizes that the relationship is not due to random chance. These findings align with Chuma & Rukundo’s (2022) analysis, which also recognized the positive correlation between improved access to financial services and successful SSR outcomes, particularly in fostering local stability and reducing violence in post-conflict settings.
Furthermore, the regression coefficients reveal a robust positive influence of access to finance on SSR, with a beta value of 0.687. This strong coefficient indicates that with every unit increase in access to financial resources, there is a corresponding significant increase in the effectiveness of SSR initiatives. Echoing the qualitative aspects detailed by Matsumoto & Vivier (2020), the positive correlation between financial access and SSR effectiveness is crucial for promoting economic stability and building community trust in state institutions. The consistency across these studies reinforces the sentiment that financial inclusion is not only a prerequisite for effective SSR but also acts as a catalyst for enhancing the legitimacy of security institutions in the eyes of the public.
Chuma & Rukundo (2022) pointed out the knowledge gaps concerning financial access and its implications for security dynamics, proposing a need for qualitative studies to better understand the lived experiences of individuals within these frameworks. The strong statistical results presented here suggest an urgent need for complementary qualitative research to delve deeper into these experiences, as understanding the nuances of how individuals interact with financial institutions can shed light on barriers and facilitators of SSR. Such research could enhance the applicability of findings and deepen insights into the mechanisms through which financial access influences social service reforms in varied contexts.
Lastly, the limitations of the current findings indicate the necessity for further explorative studies in diverse socio-economic environments, as highlighted by Matsumoto & Vivier (2020). While the quantitative results are compelling, the social investment landscape is complex and influenced by many external factors. By examining different contexts within Sub-Saharan Africa, researchers can discern patterns, variations, and unique challenges that may emerge in the relationship between financial access and SSR. This multidisciplinary approach could further substantiate the claim that financial inclusion is integral to not just improving SSR outcomes, but also to promoting sustainable peace and stability within communities facing the aftermath of conflict.
Conclusions
This study establishes a strong positive correlation between accessibility to finance and Security Sector Reform (SSR) in South Sudan, with a correlation coefficient of 0.687, indicating that improvements in financial access significantly enhance SSR effectiveness. The regression analysis reveals that access to finance accounts for 47.2% of the variance in SSR, underscoring the critical role of financial resources in shaping successful social service initiatives. The statistically significant model, confirmed by an F-value of 357.892 and a p-value below 0.001, indicates that the relationship is robust and reliable. Furthermore, the regression coefficients show a notable impact of financial access on SSR, with a beta value of 0.687, suggesting that each unit increase in financial resources correlates with a significant increase in SSR effectiveness. These findings align with existing literature advocating for the necessity of sustained financial investment in SSR initiatives, echoing the broader sentiment that financial inclusion not only facilitates effective reforms but also fosters public trust in security institutions. Given these compelling quantitative results, the study emphasizes the need for further qualitative research to explore the experiences of individuals interacting with financial institutions, as well as a call for additional studies across diverse socio-economic contexts to reinforce and clarify the relationship between financial access and SSR. This multidisciplinary approach can provide valuable insights into fostering sustainable peace and stability in post-conflict environments.
Recommendations
Recommendations for Policy
Recommendations For Theory And Practice
Recommendations For The Ministry Of Defense And Interior