Analysing the Outcomes of National Directorate of Employment Programmes on Household Income and Poverty Levels in Abuja, FCT, Nigeria

Analysing the Outcomes of National Directorate of Employment Programmes on Household Income and Poverty Levels in Abuja, FCT, Nigeria

Bitrus Abu Jisalo, Sule Magaji, Yahaya Ismail

Sustainable Development Centre, University of Abuja

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.909000337

Received: 04 September 2025; Accepted: 12 September 2025; Published: 10 October 2025

ABSTRACT

This study analyses the outcomes of National Directorate of Employment (NDE) programmes on household income and poverty reduction in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nigeria. Using a mixed-methods approach, data were collected from 400 beneficiaries through surveys and in-depth interviews. Quantitative techniques, including chi-square tests, regression analysis, and paired sample t-tests, were employed to assess programme impacts, while thematic analysis provided qualitative insights. Results indicate that NDE participation significantly improved household income, though gains remained modest and uneven, with many beneficiaries still in low-income categories. Regression analysis confirmed that NDE participation and education level were key predictors of income change. At the same time, qualitative findings revealed challenges, including limited funding, political interference, and a lack of post-training support. Anchored in Human Capital Theory and the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, the study concludes that while NDE has contributed to employment creation, its poverty-reduction potential is constrained by institutional and structural weaknesses. The study recommends stronger post-training support, access to credit, mentorship, and institutional reforms to enhance the sustainability and inclusiveness of NDE programmes.

Keywords: National Directorate of Employment (NDE); Household Income; Poverty Reduction; Human Capital Theory; Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; Employment Programmes; Abuja; Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

Unemployment and poverty remain two of the most pressing socioeconomic challenges confronting Nigeria in the 21st century (Adekoya et al., 2025). Despite the country’s vast natural and human resources, millions of Nigerians are trapped in cycles of income insecurity, limited livelihood opportunities, and pervasive poverty (National Bureau of Statistics [NBS], 2023; United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], 2022). The persistence of unemployment has exacerbated income inequality (Enaberue et al., 2024), weakened household resilience (Magaji, 2007), and heightened vulnerability to social vices, particularly among young people (Okafor, 2020). In urban centres such as Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), these challenges are compounded by rapid urbanisation, rising population growth, and limited formal sector absorption capacity. This has not only made poverty a rural phenomenon but also a growing urban crisis, necessitating innovative interventions to stimulate employment creation and sustainable income generation (World Bank, 2022).

In response to the unemployment crisis, the Federal Government of Nigeria established the National Directorate of Employment (NDE) in 1986 as a strategic agency tasked with designing and implementing employment programmes aimed at reducing joblessness, generating income, and alleviating poverty (National Directorate of Employment [NDE], 2021). Over the years, the NDE has introduced a range of interventions, including vocational skills training, entrepreneurship development, agricultural schemes, small-scale business support, and graduate attachment programmes. These initiatives are designed to provide employable skills, encourage self-reliance, and ultimately improve household income and welfare (Adebayo & Yusuf, 2022; Adegbite & Olayemi, 2021). In a normal situation, enhancing individual employability and fostering small business creation will translate into household income growth and contribute to national poverty reduction goals (Magaji & Saleh, 2010).

However, the outcomes of NDE programmes have remained mixed, and scholars continue to debate their effectiveness. While some evidence suggests that NDE interventions have provided temporary relief through short-term job placements and basic entrepreneurship skills (Eme & Ugwu, 2019; Adewale & Yusuf, 2021), other studies highlight persistent structural and operational constraints that undermine programme sustainability. These include inadequate funding, weak monitoring, political interference (Okoye & Oche, 2021; Ibrahim & Abdullahi, 2021), and lack of post-training support, such as access to credit facilities (Magaji et al., 2023) and markets (Magaji et al., 2022). Consequently, many beneficiaries struggle to transition from training to stable income generation, raising questions about the long-term impact of NDE interventions on household welfare and poverty reduction.

At the regional level, Abuja, FCT, presents a unique context for analysing the outcomes of NDE programmes. As the administrative and political capital of Nigeria, Abuja attracts large numbers of internal migrants in search of employment opportunities. This influx exerts pressure on limited job opportunities, often leaving many residents in precarious forms of employment or outright joblessness (Okoro & Abdulrahman, 2022). With urban poverty on the rise, understanding whether NDE programmes have significantly influenced household income and poverty levels in Abuja is vital for assessing the relevance and effectiveness of government-led employment interventions in urban Nigeria.

Despite the growing body of literature on the NDE, most existing studies have focused broadly on programme implementation challenges (Agboola & Usman, 2021; Oni, 2019) or on specific aspects such as youth empowerment and vocational training outcomes (Akinwale, 2021). Few studies have systematically analysed how these programmes directly translate into measurable household income improvements and poverty alleviation, particularly within Abuja. This gap necessitates a context-specific inquiry to determine whether NDE initiatives have delivered on their core mandate of improving livelihoods in Nigeria’s capital city.

Therefore, this study seeks to analyse the outcomes of NDE programmes on household income and poverty levels in Abuja, FCT, Nigeria. By examining the socioeconomic characteristics of beneficiaries, the extent of income improvements, and the perceived contributions of these programmes to poverty reduction, the research provides empirical insights into the effectiveness of government employment interventions. The findings will not only inform policymakers and development practitioners on areas requiring reform but also contribute to the broader discourse on employment creation as a pathway to inclusive growth and sustainable development in Nigeria.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Conceptual Review

Employment, Income, and Poverty

Employment is widely recognised as a cornerstone of sustainable development (Magaji & Adamu, 2011), serving as a means of income generation (Musa et al., 2024) and also as a pathway to human dignity, social inclusion, and economic stability (International Labour Organisation [ILO], 2022). Beyond being a source of livelihood, employment provides opportunities for individuals to acquire skills, build careers, and contribute meaningfully to national productivity (Eke et al., 2020). Income derived from employment whether wage-based or self-employment is fundamental to household well-being and poverty reduction (Shaba et al., 2018), enabling access to basic needs such as food, shelter, healthcare, and education (World Bank, 2022).

Conversely, poverty is understood as a multidimensional condition encompassing income deprivation (Magaji, 2008), lack of access to education and healthcare (Gabdo et al, 2025), and opportunities for social participation (Sen, 1999; Alkire & Jahan, 2018). In rapidly urbanising centres such as Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), poverty manifests in rising unemployment, escalating living costs, and widening inequality (Okoro & Abdulrahman, 2022). Urban households often face vulnerabilities linked to informal employment, lack of affordable housing, and limited access to social safety nets. Employment, therefore, becomes a critical mechanism for reducing poverty, provided that the jobs created are sustainable and adequately remunerated (Jafaru et al., 2024).

The National Directorate of Employment (NDE)

The National Directorate of Employment (NDE) was established in 1986 as a government response to the deepening unemployment crisis in Nigeria, particularly among youth and school leavers (Oni, 2019). Its mandate includes the design and implementation of job-creation strategies such as vocational training, entrepreneurship development, agricultural employment schemes, and small-scale enterprise promotion (Agboola & Usman, 2021). The agency’s flagship programmes include the Vocational Skills Development (VSD), Small-Scale Enterprises (SSE), Special Public Works (SPW), and the Agricultural Skills Training and Rural Employment Promotion (ASTERP).

Conceptually, the NDE is positioned as a mechanism for reducing unemployment and poverty by equipping individuals with skills, facilitating access to enterprise opportunities, and encouraging self-reliance. However, persistent challenges including inadequate funding, policy inconsistency (Magaji et al., 2019), weak institutional capacity, and political interference—have limited its effectiveness (Ibrahim & Abdullahi, 2021). In Abuja, where the labour market is competitive and the cost of living is high, questions persist as to whether NDE programmes effectively translate into sustainable household income growth and poverty alleviation.

Linkages Between Employment, Income, and Poverty Reduction

Scholarly literature highlights the importance of linking employment generation with sustainable poverty alleviation strategies. Employment programmes that focus solely on short-term skill acquisition without complementary support such as access to finance, market linkages, and mentorship often fail to deliver long-term impacts (Akinwale, 2021; UNDP, 2022). In contexts like Abuja, urban migration exacerbates competition for jobs, while the absence of a strong industrial base limits the absorption capacity of the labour market (Emeh, 2020). Therefore, the extent to which NDE interventions improve household income and reduce poverty hinges on the ability of these programmes to integrate skills training with broader livelihood support systems.

Theoretical Framework

Human Capital Theory

Human Capital Theory, popularised by Becker (1993), posits that investments in human capital through education, training, and skills acquisition enhance individual productivity and earnings, thereby reducing poverty. The NDE’s interventions align with this framework, as they focus on equipping participants with vocational and entrepreneurial skills. By improving employability and income-generating potential, such investments are expected to foster upward mobility and reduce poverty levels. However, in practice, the realisation of these outcomes depends on whether the broader economic environment provides opportunities for productive engagement. If beneficiaries face barriers such as inadequate access to credit or market saturation, the anticipated poverty reduction effects may not materialise (Eme & Ugwu, 2019).

Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)

The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF), developed by the UK Department for International Development (DFID, 1999), offers a holistic perspective through which poverty alleviation interventions can be evaluated (Magaji, 2004). It emphasises the role of five key assets human, financial, social, natural, and physical capital in sustaining household livelihoods. Employment programmes such as those implemented by the NDE are most effective when they strengthen multiple assets simultaneously. For instance, vocational training enhances human capital (Magaji et al., 2025); however, without financial capital (such as start-up funds or credit) and social capital (including networks and mentorship), sustainable livelihoods may not be achieved (Okoroafor et al, 2018).

The SLF is particularly relevant for Abuja households, where vulnerabilities such as high living costs, limited access to affordable housing, and weak social protection mechanisms shape livelihood outcomes. By situating NDE interventions within the SLF, this study acknowledges that employment programmes do not operate in isolation but interact with broader structural and institutional factors that influence poverty reduction outcomes.

Empirical Evidence

Several empirical studies have interrogated the outcomes of NDE programmes across Nigeria, with mixed findings.

Eme and Ugwu (2019) found that while NDE skill acquisition initiatives improved short-term employability, beneficiaries often lacked the capital and tools to establish sustainable enterprises. This limited the long-term poverty reduction potential of the programmes. Similarly, Ibrahim and Abdullahi (2021) argued that weak policy implementation and bureaucratic inefficiency hindered the agency’s effectiveness, particularly in urban centres like Abuja, where demand for employment opportunities exceeds available programme slots.

At the regional level, Adegbite and Olayemi (2021) studied NDE interventions in Lagos and Kaduna. They observed that while the programmes temporarily reduced unemployment, their contribution to household income was unsustainable due to poor monitoring, limited market linkages, and the absence of post-training financial support. In Abuja, Okoye and Oche (2021) highlighted political interference and elite capture of opportunities as significant barriers, which excluded genuine unemployed youth from benefiting from the schemes.

Recent evidence reinforces these findings. Akinyemi and Salisu (2023) analysed youth participation in NDE’s Vocational Skills Development (VSD) scheme. They noted that although beneficiaries acquired marketable skills, only a fraction were able to transition into sustainable employment due to a lack of access to start-up capital and weak entrepreneurial ecosystems. Similarly, Bello and Musa (2021) observed that corruption and resource misallocation undermined the credibility of NDE programmes, thereby limiting their intended poverty-reducing effects.

Household-level studies provide further insight. Afolabi and Aluko (2020) reported that households with members who participated in NDE small-scale enterprise schemes experienced modest income increases compared to non-beneficiaries. However, these gains were often eroded by inflation, the high cost of business inputs, and market saturation. Adebayo and Yusuf (2022) compared Nigeria’s NDE with Ghana’s National Youth Employment Programme (NYEP), concluding that Ghana’s relatively better institutional frameworks and public-private partnerships facilitated more substantial impacts on youth employment and poverty reduction. In contrast, Nigeria’s programme outcomes remained constrained by bureaucratic bottlenecks, corruption, and insufficient funding.

National data also highlight the persistence of the problem. The National Bureau of Statistics (2023) reported that Nigeria’s unemployment and underemployment rates remain among the highest in Africa, despite decades of NDE interventions. This suggests that while the NDE provides valuable training and temporary employment, its structural impact on household income and poverty alleviation remains limited.

Globally, comparative lessons emphasise integrated approaches. The International Labour Organisation (ILO, 2022) and UNDP (2022) stress that sustainable employment strategies require the combination of vocational training, access to credit, mentorship, and strong institutional support. World Bank (2022) evaluations of youth employment programmes across Sub-Saharan Africa found that multi-sectoral approaches linking training with financing and private sector engagement are more effective than isolated training schemes.

For Abuja, a rapidly urbanising city with rising youth unemployment, the absence of these integrated linkages limits the potential of NDE programmes to substantially improve household incomes and reduce poverty. The evidence therefore suggests that while NDE programmes have yielded pockets of success, their overall outcomes fall short of expectations due to structural, institutional, and implementation challenges.

METHODOLOGY

Research Design

This study adopted a mixed-methods design, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches to capture both statistical outcomes and contextual insights into the effectiveness of the National Directorate of Employment (NDE) programmes. The quantitative component employed a descriptive and inferential survey design to examine the relationship between participation in NDE programmes, household income, and poverty levels in Abuja, FCT. The qualitative component included key informant interviews (KIIs) with NDE officials, trainers, and selected beneficiaries, aimed at triangulating quantitative findings with experiential evidence (Creswell & Plano Clark, 2018).

Population and Sampling

The study population comprised unemployed youths, women, and small-scale entrepreneurs who had participated in NDE programmes in Abuja between 2018 and 2023. According to NDE Abuja Zonal Office records, approximately 6,000 individuals benefited from various schemes, including the Vocational Skills Development (VSD), Small-Scale Enterprises (SSE), and Special Public Works (SPW).

A sample size of 400 respondents was determined using Yamane’s (1967) formula, with a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed:

1. Purposive sampling to select Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC) and Bwari, which host the highest concentration of beneficiaries.
2. Stratified random sampling to classify respondents based on programme type (VSD, SSE, SPW).
3. Systematic random sampling to select beneficiaries from the NDE database.

Additionally, 10 key informants (NDE officials, programme facilitators, and community leaders) were interviewed.

Data Collection Instruments

Data were gathered through both structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews.

1. The questionnaire contained sections on demographic characteristics, household income before and after participation, and perceptions of poverty reduction. Items were measured using a five-point Likert scale.
2. The interviews provided more profound insights into implementation challenges, sustainability of benefits, and institutional barriers.

The instruments were subjected to expert validation by three academics in development studies and tested for reliability using Cronbach’s alpha, which yielded a coefficient of 0.82, indicating high internal consistency.

Data Analysis

Quantitative data were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS v.26). Descriptive statistics (frequencies, means, and percentages) were used to profile respondents’ socio-economic and demographic characteristics. Inferential statistics were applied as follows:

1. Chi-square tests were conducted to examine associations between socio-demographic variables (e.g., gender, education level) and programme participation.
2. Linear regression analysis assessed the extent to which NDE participation influenced changes in household income and poverty levels.
3. Paired sample t-tests compared pre- and post-intervention household income.

Qualitative data from interviews were analysed using thematic analysis, which involved coding responses into themes such as programme effectiveness, funding challenges, and sustainability pathways. The triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data strengthened the validity of the findings (Patton, 2015).

Ethical Considerations

Ethical approval was obtained from the University of Abuja’s Research Ethics Committee. Participation was voluntary, with respondents informed about the study’s objectives, confidentiality assurances, and their right to withdraw at any stage. Consent forms were signed prior to the commencement of data collection.

Results and Discussion

Socioeconomic and Demographic Characteristics of Respondents

A total of 400 respondents participated in the survey. Table 1 presents their demographic and socioeconomic profile.

Table 1: Socioeconomic and Demographic Characteristics of Respondents (n = 400)

Discussion: The majority of respondents were youths aged 26–35, with a reasonably balanced gender distribution. The majority (46%) had tertiary education, reflecting the urban context of Abuja. Post-participation income distribution indicates that while some participants progressed above the poverty line, many remained in low-income categories, suggesting a modest impact.

Chi-Square Tests: Socio-Demographic Variables and Programme Participation

Table 2: Chi-Square Test Results

Discussion: The findings reveal that gender, education, and age have a significant influence on participation. Men were slightly more represented in Small-Scale Enterprise schemes, while women were more engaged in Vocational Skills Development (Muhammed et al., 2025). Higher education levels correlated with increased participation, consistent with Ibrahim and Abdullahi (2021), who observed elite bias in access.

Regression Analysis: Effect of NDE Participation on Household Income

Table 3: Regression Analysis Results

Model Summary: R² = 0.34, F(4,395) = 48.76, p < 0.001

Discussion: Regression results show that NDE participation significantly improved household income (β = 0.412, p < 0.001), but the explained variance was moderate (34%). Education also had a significant impact, with gender differences evident, although men tended to benefit slightly more. These findings align with those of Adegbite and Olayemi (2021), who emphasised the importance of post-training financial support.

Paired Sample t-Test: Pre- and Post-Intervention Household Income

Table 4: Paired t-Test of Household Income (n = 400)

Discussion: The results indicate a statistically significant improvement in average monthly household income post-participation (t = 18.42, p < 0.001). However, the mean post-income (₦45,200) still falls below the estimated living wage threshold for Abuja, underscoring the limited impact on poverty reduction.

Qualitative Insights: Thematic Analysis

The qualitative interviews with NDE beneficiaries, programme officials, and community stakeholders revealed deeper contextual dimensions of the outcomes of NDE interventions in Abuja. Four major themes emerged:

Programme Effectiveness

Most beneficiaries acknowledged that NDE training programmes, particularly in vocational skills such as tailoring, ICT, and catering, were effective in enhancing their technical capabilities. Respondents narrated how the training improved their self-confidence and employability prospects. However, they stressed that the absence of adequate start-up capital and essential tools hampered the translation of these skills into sustainable businesses. As one participant remarked:
“The training was useful, but without sewing machines or capital to rent a shop, I could not start on my own. Skills alone are not enough to survive in Abuja.”
This underscores the view of Eme and Ugwu (2019), who argued that while NDE enhances employability, the long-term poverty alleviation effect is muted without financial support.

Funding Challenges

Interviews with NDE officials highlighted inadequate budgetary allocations and irregular disbursements as significant barriers to programme success. Many programmes were either scaled down or delayed due to funding shortages. Officials expressed frustration that limited resources prevented them from supporting larger numbers of applicants or providing essential post-training grants. This finding corroborates Ibrahim and Abdullahi (2021), who linked weak programme outcomes to bureaucratic and financial constraints.

Sustainability Pathways

Beneficiaries consistently emphasised that one-off training was insufficient for sustainable empowerment. They called for follow-up measures such as mentorship, access to micro-credit, and integration with cooperative societies. Such pathways were seen as crucial for scaling businesses and ensuring long-term survival. This aligns with international best practices documented by the ILO (2022), which stress that employment interventions should be embedded within broader ecosystems of financial services and market access.

Political Interference

Stakeholders, particularly community leaders, reported instances of elite capture, where programme slots were allocated based on political patronage rather than genuine need. Some deserving unemployed youth were excluded, while beneficiaries with political connections gained access regardless of their employment status. This exclusionary dynamic resonates with Okoye and Oche’s (2021) observations in Abuja, where political interference undermined programme inclusivity.

Triangulation of Findings

By triangulating quantitative results with qualitative insights, the study presents a holistic picture of the outcomes of NDE programmes in Abuja.

1. From a statistical perspective, chi-square and regression analyses confirmed that NDE participation significantly improved short-term employability and modestly increased household income. Paired t-tests further demonstrated measurable income growth after programme participation.
2. From a qualitative perspective, however, narratives revealed persistent structural challenges — such as inadequate funding, lack of credit access, and political interference — which constrained the broader poverty reduction potential of the programmes.

The convergence of evidence suggests that while NDE programmes are effective in imparting skills and stimulating modest income gains, their impact on poverty alleviation remains limited due to systemic weaknesses. This validates the application of the Human Capital Theory, which argues that skills and training enhance productivity, but also aligns with the Institutional Theory, which emphasises the role of governance structures, resources, and political accountability in shaping programme outcomes.

DISCUSSION

The findings of this study resonate with the propositions of Human Capital Theory, which emphasises the role of skills acquisition and training in improving individual productivity and income (Becker, 1993). The significant increase in post-intervention household income suggests that NDE training enhanced employability and facilitated entry into self-employment. However, the limited poverty-reduction impact highlights a partial fulfilment of the theory’s assumptions. Without access to start-up capital and sustained market linkages, skills alone did not guarantee substantial improvements in livelihood outcomes.

The results also align with the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) (DFID, 1999), which underscores the need for strengthening multiple livelihood assets (human, financial, physical, social, and natural capital) for lasting poverty reduction. While NDE enhanced human capital through training (Magaji, 2023), gaps remained in financial capital due to limited access to credit (Magaji & Yisa, 2023), social capital in the form of weak mentorship networks (Ahmed et al., 2024), and physical capital constraint in the form of inadequate infrastructure to support entrepreneurship (Adamu et al., 2009). The SLF thus helps explain why income gains were modest and unevenly distributed. Beneficiaries who had better access to external support systems were more likely to sustain improvements, while others relapsed into vulnerability.

Together, these theoretical insights suggest that employment programmes must go beyond training to provide a holistic support package, including financial inclusion, business incubation, and policy reforms to address institutional weaknesses.

CONCLUSION

This study assessed the outcomes of National Directorate of Employment (NDE) programmes on household income and poverty levels in Abuja, FCT. Quantitative results showed significant improvements in household income post-intervention, and regression analysis confirmed that participation in NDE programmes was a positive predictor of income gains. However, many beneficiaries remained in low-income categories, reflecting the persistence of poverty despite programme exposure. Qualitative insights reinforced these findings, highlighting funding constraints, political interference, and lack of post-training support as critical challenges.

Overall, NDE programmes have contributed modestly to employment and income generation but have fallen short of substantially reducing poverty in Abuja due to institutional, financial, and structural limitations.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Strengthen Post-Training Support: Establish linkages between skill acquisition and start-up capital through microfinance schemes, grants, and credit facilities.
2. Institutional Reforms: Enhance transparency in programme selection to reduce political interference and elite capture.
3. Mentorship and Market Linkages: Create business incubation hubs that connect trainees with mentors, cooperatives, and value chains.
4. Sustainable Funding: Increase budgetary allocations and ensure timely disbursements to improve programme delivery.
5. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E): Develop a robust M&E framework to track long-term outcomes on income, employment, and poverty reduction.
6. Gender-Sensitive Approaches: Address observed gender disparities by tailoring programmes to women’s specific needs, including childcare and flexible participation models.

CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE

1. This study provides empirical evidence on the limited but significant impact of NDE programmes on household income in an urban Nigerian context, filling a gap in Abuja-focused research.
2. It integrates quantitative and qualitative analysis (triangulation), offering a holistic perspective on employment policy outcomes.
3. By applying Human Capital Theory and the SLF, the study advances theoretical discourse on why skill acquisition initiatives alone cannot eliminate poverty without complementary livelihood assets.
4. The study contributes to policy debates by identifying institutional bottlenecks — such as political interference and underfunding — that undermine employment programmes in Nigeria.
5. It provides a framework for scaling interventions, suggesting that employment programmes require systemic integration with credit access, mentorship, and market support.

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