Facing Global Inflation: The Role of The People’s Economy in Building Economic Independence in 2025

Facing Global Inflation: The Role of the People’s Economy in Building Economic Independence in 2025

Octaviana Arisinta, Waspodo Tjipto Subroto, Norida Canda Sakti

Faculty of Economics and Business, State University of Surabaya

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.8120002

Received: 20 November 2024; Accepted: 23 November 2024; Published: 26 December 2024

ABSTRACT

In the face of global inflation which is expected to increase by 2025, the people’s economy is one of the strategic solutions to build people’s economic independence. The populist economy, which is based on the strength and participation of the people, prioritizes the principles of social justice and sustainability in resource management. Through the development of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), the people’s economy is able to improve people’s welfare by creating jobs, encouraging innovation, and strengthening local competitiveness. This study aims to analyze the role of the people’s economy in building economic independence in the midst of global inflation challenges. With a theoretical approach that includes social justice theory, sustainable development, and local economics, the study identifies a range of strategies that can be applied to empower MSMEs and increase community participation in economic activities. The results of the study show that although MSMEs have great potential in supporting the local economy, they still face significant challenges such as access to capital and technology. Therefore, policies that support the development of MSMEs are needed so that they can contribute optimally to creating economic independence in Indonesia by 2025.

 Key Word: People’s Economy, Inflation, Global Economy, MSMEs

INTRODUCTION

Global inflation is an economic phenomenon that can have a wide impact on the economy of a country, including Indonesia. In 2025, inflation predictions show a significant upward trend, influenced by various factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, fluctuations in commodity prices, and changes in monetary policy in major countries. By 2025, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) estimates that global inflation will decline to 3.5%. This is a significant decrease from the inflation rate which reached 9.4% in 2022. (IMF, 2024) noted that many developed countries are expected to return to their inflation targets this year. Despite the projected decline in inflation, the IMF warned that inflation risks remain high due to trade tensions and geopolitical factors that could affect the prices of goods and services. Higher inflation could cause interest rates to remain high for longer, increasing financial risk worldwide.

In this context, the people’s economy emerged as a relevant and strategic approach to build people’s economic independence. The concept of the people’s economy focuses on empowering the people through the development of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), which are the backbone of the local economy. The people’s economy, as stipulated in Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution,(Hasmawati, 2018) emphasizing the control of resources by the people and joint economic management for the welfare of the community. In the face of global inflation that can affect people’s purchasing power and economic stability, MSMEs have a crucial role in creating jobs, increasing people’s income, and supporting local economic growth. By utilizing local resources and prioritizing the principle of social justice, the people’s economy can be a solution to reduce the negative impact of inflation.

Inflation prediction data for 2025 shows that many countries in the world will experience high inflationary pressures due to the post-pandemic recovery and supply chain disruptions (Hidayat, 2023). According to the latest reports from international economic institutions, inflation in developing countries is expected to reach double digits, while developed countries are also not spared from the threat of rising inflation. This has the potential to cause a decrease in people’s purchasing power and an increase in poverty rates if not handled properly.

In the context of Indonesia, this global inflation challenge must be faced with an integrated and inclusive strategy. The populist economy offers an approach that focuses not only on economic growth, but also on the equitable distribution of welfare (Juliana et al., 2018). Empowering MSMEs as part of the people’s economy will help create community economic resilience in the face of inflationary turmoil. Through training, better access to capital, and technology support, MSMEs can adapt quickly to market changes and increase the competitiveness of local products.

Furthermore, the role of the government is very important in creating a conducive climate for the development of MSMEs. Policies that support capital accessibility, regulatory simplification, and infrastructure improvement will be key in strengthening the position of MSMEs amid global inflation challenges (Sarfiah et al., 2019). In addition, collaboration between the government, the private sector, and the community is also needed to create a mutually supportive ecosystem for the growth of the people’s economy.

Thus, this study aims to analyze the role of the people’s economy in building the economic independence of the Indonesian people amid the prediction of global inflation in 2025. Through a theoretical approach and empirical analysis of the condition of MSMEs and the impact of inflation on the local economy, it is hoped that effective strategies can be found that can be applied to strengthen the people’s economic resilience. This research will also discuss the challenges faced by MSMEs as well as innovative solutions that can be applied to improve the sustainability of their businesses in the face of this uncertain situation.

Overall, a deep understanding of the role of the populist economy in the context of global inflation is essential for formulating appropriate and effective policies. By focusing on empowering the people through the development of MSMEs, it is hoped that Indonesia can achieve stronger and more sustainable economic independence in the future.

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS

The populist economy is an economic system that focuses on community empowerment through collective resource management. In this context, there are several theories underlying the concept of the people’s economy, each of which provides an important perspective on justice, sustainability, solidarity, and community participation in economic development. The following is an explanation of these theories and their sources.

Social Justice Theory

The theory of social justice put forward by John (Rawls, 1971) emphasizing the importance of equitable distribution of resources, especially for disadvantaged communities. Rawls argues that in designing the principles of justice, we must consider the position of the most disadvantaged people in society. In the context of the populist economy, the application of the principle of social justice is very important to ensure that all members of society benefit from economic development. Social justice is the foundation for policies that support equal distribution of welfare and the reduction of social inequality.

Sustainable Development Theory

The theory of sustainable development, popularized by (Brundtland, 1985) In their report, “Our Common Future,” they stated that economic development must consider environmental and social aspects in order to provide benefits for present and future generations. Sustainable development is in line with the principles of the people’s economy that prioritizes sustainability in resource management. By paying attention to the environmental and social impacts of economic activities, the populist economy can help create prosperity that is not only temporary but also sustainable for the future.

Solidarity Economic Theory

Pierre (Rosanvallon, 2011) put forward the theory of solidarity economy that emphasizes the importance of solidarity between community members in building the economy. The solidarity economy encourages collaboration and cooperation to achieve common goals, as well as providing support to those in need. In the context of the people’s economy, this theory is relevant because it emphasizes that the success of an economic system is determined not only by the individual but also by social relations and solidarity among members of society. By building a network of solidarity, the community can support each other in facing economic challenges.

Local Economic Theory

Michael (M. E. Porter, 2008) developing local economic theories that emphasize that local economic development through the empowerment of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) can directly improve the welfare of the community. This theory suggests that by harnessing the strength of local resources and the potential of communities, local economies can grow and develop independently. In the context of the people’s economy, focusing on the development of MSMEs as the main driver of local economic growth is very important to create independence and improve the quality of life of the community.

Participatory Economic Theory

Elinor (Ostrom, 1990) put forward a participatory economic theory that states that the community must be actively involved in the management of shared resources. Community participation in economic decision-making increases the accountability and sustainability of the system. In the context of the people’s economy, this theory highlights the importance of involving all levels of society in the process of planning and implementing economic activities. Thus, the decision taken will better reflect the needs and aspirations of the local community.The above theories provide a strong foundation for understanding the concept of the people’s economy as an alternative approach in more inclusive and sustainable economic development. By integrating the principles of social justice, sustainability, solidarity, local empowerment, and community participation, the people’s economy can be an effective solution to face social and economic challenges in this modern era. Through the application of these theories, it is hoped that a fairer and more prosperous economic system can be created for all levels of society in Indonesia.

RESEARCH METHODS

This research method is designed to analyze the role of the people’s economy in building the economic independence of the Indonesian people in the midst of global inflation challenges which are predicted to increase in 2025. (Machali, 2016) This research begins by conducting a literature review to understand the theories underlying the people’s economy, including social justice theory, sustainable development, solidarity economy, local economy, and participatory economy. After that, the objectives of the research were set, namely to evaluate the role of MSMEs in improving people’s welfare, identify effective strategies to deal with global inflation, and analyze the challenges faced by MSMEs and solutions that can be applied.

The design of this study uses the quaternary survey method (Siva et al., 2023) to monitor inflation dynamics and MSMEs’ response to market changes. The data required includes global and domestic inflation statistics, MSME profiles in Indonesia, MSME revenues and operating costs, and the level of adaptation of MSMEs to market changes. Data collection was carried out through online and offline surveys to respondents involving MSME actors from various regions in Indonesia. In addition, interviews with important figures in the field of the people’s economy were also conducted to get more information about the practical implementation of the people’s economy.

Data analysis was carried out using descriptive statistical techniques to present the general profile of MSMEs and inflation trends. Multiple linear regression is used to analyze the relationship between independent and dependent variables. In addition, a SWOT analysis is carried out to identify the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities, and threats faced by MSMEs in the face of global inflation. The results of the research will be delivered through detailed academic reports, slide presentations, and discussion seminars to provide strategic recommendations for the development of the people’s economy in Indonesia.

RESEARCH RESULTS

This study was conducted to analyze the role of the people’s economy in facing global inflation in 2025 by involving 100 respondents consisting of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in various regions in Indonesia. The research methods used include quarterly surveys, interviews, and documentary analysis. The data obtained were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis to understand the relationship between the existing variables.

The respondents in this study consisted of MSME actors operating in various sectors, including agriculture, trade, and services. The following is a table showing the distribution of respondents by business sector:

Table 1

Key Findings of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises from 100 Respondents

1. Perception of Inflation
   • As many as 70% of respondents admitted that they felt the impact of inflation on their business operating costs. This shows that global inflation has a significant effect on MSMEs.
   • Respondents from the trade sector felt the most impact, with 80% stating that raw material prices were increasing.
2. Strategies to Deal with Inflation

• Respondents were asked about the strategies they use to deal with inflation. The results can be seen in the following table:

Table 2

Strategy Alignment Survey from 100 Respondents

1. Impact of the People’s Economy
   • The study also found that 60% of respondents believe that the application of populist economic principles helps them in increasing competitiveness and economic independence.
   • In addition, around 55% of respondents felt that government support in the form of training and access to capital was very helpful in strengthening their position in the market.
2. Challenges Faced

Respondents identified some of the key challenges they face, such as:

Table 3

Survey on Challenges Faced by MSME Actors from 100 respondents

Regression analysis was carried out to determine the influence of independent variables (such as business size, type of business, and access to capital) on dependent variables (economic independence). The results of the analysis show that:

• Business size has a significant positive influence on economic independence (p < 0.05).
• Access to capital also had a significant positive effect (p < 0.01), showing that the better the access to capital, the higher the economic independence of MSMEs.

The people’s economy has an important role in building the economic independence of the Indonesian people in the midst of global inflation challenges. The application of people’s economic principles through the empowerment of MSMEs can help the community to be more adaptive and resilient to changes in economic conditions. However, challenges such as access to capital and limited technology still need to be overcome through policies that support the sustainable development of MSMEs. This research provides recommendations for the government to continue to increase support for MSMEs so that they can contribute more to the national economy in the future.

DISCUSSION

This study analyzes the role of the people’s economy in facing global inflation in 2025, with a focus on Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia. The results of the study show that MSMEs have a significant role in increasing people’s economic independence, especially in the midst of rising inflation challenges. In this discussion, we will refer to various economic theories that underlie the concept of the people’s economy and discuss the implications of the results of this research.

The populist economy is an economic system that is oriented towards the power of the people in managing economic resources. This concept refers to Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution which emphasizes the importance of controlling resources by the state for the greatest possible prosperity of the people (Hasmawati, 2018). The populist economy aims to realize people’s economic sovereignty by encouraging active community participation in economic activities. In this context, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are the main pillar that supports local economic growth.

Muhammad Hatta, as the initiator of this concept, proposed the populist economy as an alternative solution to the failure of the liberal and communist economic systems (Moh. Musfiq Arifqi, 2021). He emphasized the importance of mutual cooperation and togetherness in carrying out economic activities. Thus, the populist economy does not only focus on economic growth, but also on the equitable distribution of welfare and social justice. This is in line with the principles of Pancasila which emphasizes the importance of economic democracy and protection for vulnerable groups.

The theory of social justice put forward by John (Rawls, 1971) providing a philosophical basis for the application of the people’s economy. Rawls argued that the distribution of resources should be done fairly, with priority given to those less fortunate. In the context of the populist economy, the application of the principle of social justice is very important to ensure that all members of society benefit from economic development. The results of the study show that 70% of respondents feel the impact of inflation on their business operating costs. This reflects the injustice in the distribution of resources that needs to be corrected through policies that favor MSMEs. The application of social justice principles in economic policies will help reduce social inequality and ensure that economic growth can be felt by all levels of society.

In the theory of sustainable development popularized by (Brundtland, 1985) The Commission emphasized that development must consider environmental and social aspects in order to provide benefits for current and future generations. In the context of the people’s economy, the principle of sustainability is very relevant because MSMEs often operate by utilizing local resources. The study found that 60% of respondents believe that the application of the principles of the people’s economy helps them increase their competitiveness and economic independence. By paying attention to sustainability in resource management, MSMEs can contribute to inclusive and environmentally friendly economic growth. Therefore, it is important for the government to support initiatives that encourage sustainable business practices among MSMEs.

The economic theory of solidarity put forward by Pierre (Rosanvallon, 2011) also emphasized the importance of solidarity between community members in building the economy. In this study, it was found that MSMEs often collaborate with each other to face common challenges, such as global inflation. This solidarity creates a support network that allows MSMEs to help each other in improving operational efficiency and sharing market information. Collaboration between small businesses can strengthen their position in the market and increase the competitiveness of local products. By building a network of solidarity, people can support each other in facing economic challenges, thereby creating a stronger and more resilient economic ecosystem.

Local economic theory developed by Michael (M. Porter & Kramer, 2014) emphasized that local economic development through the empowerment of MSMEs can directly improve the welfare of the community. The results of the study show that MSMEs function as a driving force for the local economy by producing goods and services in accordance with the needs of the local community. MSMEs not only create jobs but also help reduce the unemployment rate in the regions. By utilizing local resources, MSMEs can increase the economic independence of the community and create added value for the local economy. This is in line with the sustainable development goals that the Indonesian government wants to achieve through the development of the MSME sector.

MSMEs are often the birthplace of innovation and creativity because of their flexibility in adapting to market changes. The research shows that respondents report implementing product diversification strategies as one way to deal with inflation, with 25% of them choosing this strategy. This shows that MSMEs are able to innovate to meet the changing needs of consumers. Innovation is not only limited to products but also includes the production and marketing processes. By creating products that suit local needs, MSMEs contribute to economic and cultural diversity in Indonesia. Therefore, support for innovation among MSMEs is essential to increase their competitiveness in the market.

Support for training and access to technology is very important for improving product quality and competitiveness of MSMEs. Research shows that government programs and private institutions that facilitate capacity building for MSMEs help them compete not only in the local market but also in the national and international markets. Improving product quality will have a direct impact on consumer satisfaction and customer loyalty. Therefore, investment in skills training and modern technology is the key to increasing the competitiveness of MSMEs in the current era of globalization.

MSMEs also contribute to the supply chain of various industrial sectors by becoming suppliers or business partners for large companies. The study found that many large companies collaborate with MSMEs as suppliers, thus strengthening economic relations among various business actors. The contribution of MSMEs in the supply chain not only improves efficiency but also creates new opportunities for the growth of these small businesses. By establishing strategic partnerships, MSMEs can expand their market reach as well as gain access to new technologies and knowledge from large companies.

The populist economy emphasizes the importance of economic independence for the community through the development of their own business. Research shows that respondents feel more independent after developing their own small business, so they are not dependent on large corporations or foreign investment. By developing their own businesses, people can control their economy and create financial independence. This is very important to build economic resilience at the local level and reduce dependence on external factors that can affect economic stability.

MSMEs often provide greater opportunities for women and vulnerable groups to be involved in economic activities. Research has found that many women are involved in small businesses, thus contributing to gender equality in the economy. Through small businesses, women can access resources and become financially independent, which has a positive impact on their social status in society. Women’s empowerment through MSMEs is also in line with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) that the Indonesian government wants to achieve.

MSMEs also contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially in terms of poverty alleviation and inclusive job creation. By providing jobs for local communities, MSMEs help reduce unemployment and increase community income. This study found that the existence of MSMEs often has a positive impact on the welfare of the community as a whole. Through the existence of MSMEs, the economy can grow sustainably and equitably. MSMEs that focus on local and environmentally friendly products contribute to environmental sustainability and maintain cultural diversity. Therefore, support for MSMEs is a strategic step to achieve the sustainable development goals set by the Indonesian government.

The importance of the role of MSMEs in implementing the principles of the people’s economy in Indonesia through local community empowerment, innovation, collaboration between small business actors, and government support in the form of market-friendly policies, economic independence can be achieved even in the midst of global inflation challenges. The application of theories such as social justice, sustainable development, solidarity, and local empowerment is a strong foundation for the success of this economic system. By continuing to strengthen the position of MSMEs as the driving force of the local economy, Indonesia can achieve inclusive and sustainable development goals for all levels of society. In facing the challenges of the future, it is important for all parties—the government, the private sector, and the community—to work together to realize a just and prosperous economic system for all Indonesian people through the application of these basic concepts of the people’s economy.

Despite having an important role, MSMEs in Indonesia face various challenges, one of which is access to capital. Many small business actors have difficulty obtaining financing from formal financial institutions due to a lack of collateral or a good credit history. This hinders their ability to develop their businesses and increase production capacity. Technological limitations are another challenge for MSMEs in Indonesia. Many small businesses have not taken advantage of modern technology to improve their operational efficiency and product quality. Without adequate technology, it is difficult for MSMEs to compete with large companies that have more resources to invest in technological innovation.

Complicated licensing and regulatory processes are often a barrier to the development of MSMEs in Indonesia. Many small business actors find it difficult to meet the administrative requirements needed to run a business legally. This complicated bureaucracy can cause delays in starting or developing businesses, thereby hindering local economic growth.

To increase the role of the people’s economy in facing global inflation and strengthen people’s economic independence, a number of strategic recommendations need to be implemented and also to overcome challenges.

1. First, the government must develop fiscal policies that support the empowerment of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). This policy includes the provision of tax incentives for MSMEs that innovate and invest in the development of local products. By providing these incentives, it is hoped that MSMEs can be more competitive and able to survive in the midst of rising inflation challenges.

2. Second, capital accessibility is one of the main challenges faced by MSMEs. Therefore, it is important for the government to improve special financing schemes for small business actors. This can be done by engaging microfinance institutions and local banks to provide loans with lower interest rates and more flexible terms. Research shows that better access to capital will increase the production capacity and competitiveness of MSMEs (Raharjo, 2024).

3. Third, simplification of the licensing process is also needed so that MSMEs can more easily run their businesses legally. Complicated bureaucratic processes are often a barrier for small businesses to start or grow their businesses. Therefore, the government needs to reform regulations to create a more MSME-friendly business environment. According to research by (Taufik, 2017), the ease of licensing can significantly encourage the growth of MSMEs.

4. Fourth, the skills training program for MSME actors must be expanded to increase their capacity to face market competition. This training includes managerial skills, marketing, as well as the use of information technology. With the increase in skills, MSMEs will be better prepared to compete in the local and international markets. This is in line with findings that show that training can increase productivity and innovation in small businesses (Ostrom, 1990).

5. Fifth, the development of information technology infrastructure is very important to support the digitalization of MSMEs. In today’s digital era, the use of information technology can help MSMEs in marketing their products more widely and efficiently. The government needs to work with the private sector to provide better internet access and training on the use of digital technology for small businesses. Research shows that digitalization can improve operational efficiency and competitiveness of MSMEs (M. E. Porter, 2008).

6. Sixth, the government also needs to launch a business incubation program for prospective entrepreneurs to provide initial support in starting a business. The program can include technical guidance, access to business networks, as well as start-up funding. With this support, it is hoped that more individuals will dare to start new businesses and contribute to the local economy.

7. Seventh, holding regular local product exhibitions can increase the visibility of MSME products and attract consumer attention. This exhibition not only provides an opportunity for small business actors to promote their products but also strengthens the network between business actors. This is in line with local economic theory which emphasizes the importance of collaboration between business actors to build a strong economic ecosystem (Rosanvallon, 2011).
8. Eighth, the establishment of a joint marketing network between small business actors is also highly recommended to increase their competitiveness. By joining the marketing network, MSMEs can support each other in terms of product distribution and promotion. Research shows that collaboration between business actors can create synergies that benefit all parties (Brundtland, 1985).

9. Ninth, the provision of an online platform to facilitate the sale of local products also needs to be considered as a strategy to expand the MSME market. In this digital era, the presence of e-commerce platforms is very important to reach a wider range of consumers. Thus, the government can work with technology companies to provide a platform that is easily accessible to small businesses.

10. Tenth, further research on the impact of inflation on MSME growth is urgently needed to understand the changing market dynamics. These studies will provide deeper insights into effective strategies in dealing with global inflation and help formulate appropriate policies to support the development of the people’s economy in Indonesia.

By implementing these strategic recommendations, it is hoped that the role of the people’s economy can be further strengthened and the economic independence of the Indonesian people can be realized optimally in the midst of increasingly complex global inflation challenges.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of the research that has been conducted, it can be concluded that the people’s economy has a very important role in building the economic independence of the Indonesian people, especially in the midst of the challenge of global inflation which is predicted to increase in 2025. MSMEs as the main pillar in the people’s economy contribute significantly to improving people’s welfare through job creation and income increase. This study shows that 60% of respondents feel that the application of the principles of the people’s economy helps them in increasing competitiveness and economic independence.

The theories underlying the populist economy, such as the theory of social justice, sustainable development, and the solidarity economy, provide a solid foundation for understanding how MSMEs can function as the driving force of the local economy. In this context, the empowerment of women and vulnerable groups through MSMEs is also an important highlight, because this not only increases financial independence but also contributes to gender equality in the economy.

However, while MSMEs have great potential, they also face various challenges, including difficult access to capital, technological limitations, and complicated bureaucracy. Therefore, government policies that are more friendly to small business actors are needed to overcome these challenges. Strategic recommendations such as simplifying the licensing process, increasing capital accessibility, and skills training programs for MSME actors are urgently needed to support the development of the people’s economy.

Overall, this study confirms that with the right policy support and MSME empowerment, Indonesia can create a more inclusive and sustainable economic system. This is in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which aim to alleviate poverty and create inclusive economic growth. Thus, the role of the people’s economy in dealing with global inflation is not only relevant but also crucial for the future of the Indonesian economy.

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