Analysis of Trend in the Climatic Variables and Precipitation Effectiveness Indices in Bade Local Government Area, Yobe State, Nigeria

Analysis of Trend in the Climatic Variables and Precipitation Effectiveness Indices in Bade Local Government Area, Yobe State, Nigeria

Emmanuel Samuel Danbauchi¹ and Chilamzi, O. Eweh²

¹Department of Geography. Plateau State University, Bokkos, Bokkos LGA, Plateau State. Nigeria.

²Department of Geography, Modibbo  Adama University of Technology Yola, Adamawa State, Nigeria.

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.908000552

Received: 14 August 2025; Accepted: 22 August 2025; Published: 20 September 2025

ABSTRACT

Climate change is expected to intensify existing problems such as drought, desertification, low precipitation, windstorm, global warming, and excessive heat, particularly in Bade Local Government Area. The increasing intensity of extreme weather events as a result of climate change in the study area is alarming.  This study investigates “trend in the climate variables and precipitation, effectiveness indices in Bade LGA of Yobe State, Nigeria. The objective of the study is to examine the characteristics of climatic variables, and the precipitation indices in the study area. Four climatic variables such as Maximum and Minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and rainfall for the period of forty (40) years from 1979-2018 was obtained in Bade from North East Arid Zone Development Programme (NEAZDP) Meteorological Station located at  Garin Alkali. These were used in calculating the mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, annual rainfall totals, and the onset, cessation, length of raining season (LRS) and seasonality index (SI) using trend analysis to determine the seasonal changes in the climatic variables in Microsoft excel package. The result of the trend in climatic variables indicate increase in rainfall leading to flooding; increase in average temperature, decrease in relative humidity, and increased wind speed. Additionally, the result indicated late onset of rain fall, early cessation of rain fall, general decline in the raining days, and dry days. Adaptation strategies on how to respond to climate variability, and urgent positive action and policies by stake holders, government and private sectors is needed to ensure sustainable and safe environment from the vulnerability of climate change formed the recommendations.

Keywords: Analysis, Trend, Climate Variables, Precipitation, Effectiveness, Indices

INTRODUCTION

Climate change and variability is one of the greatest global concerns facing human kind in recent times. As an ecological being, man need conducive and suitable environment for effective and fruitful living, but continues variation in the trend of climate variables remains issue of concern (Sola, and Michael, 2016). Despite increasing attention by international conventions and successive governments on climate change, its impact remains a major driving factor to the environmental degradation in Bade LGA.

 Experts and scientists all agreed that climate is real and present danger to the future well-being of the environment and the teaming human populations, (Arya & Rao, 2023). Climate is a dynamic phenomenon that changes continuously with long-term warming and cooling cycles. The change is rapidly emerging critically at the global level. The  current  rapid and extensive changes are too extreme to be dismissed as normal and  have been shown to be closely correlated to changes in atmospheric carbon as a result of  anthropogenic activity, International Penal on Climate Change, (IPCC, 2019).  The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 2014), stated that Climate change refers to any significant change in the measures of climate lasting for an extended period of time. In other words, climate change includes major changes in temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns, among others, that occur over several decades. According to Salami (2024), “climate change is a statistically significant variation in either mean state of the climate or its variability, persisting for an extended period  typically decades or longer (Zemba, Umar & Binbol (2017). Climate variation is the seasonal and annual variation in temperature and rainfall patterns (Zemba, Umar & Binbol 2017). Climate variability is the seasonal and annual variations in temperature and rainfall patterns and their distribution within and between regions or countries that occurs over months to decades, (Uejio, Tamerius, Wertz, & Konchar, 2015).

Climate scientists such as Jajerea et al. 2023; Sidi, 2022 & Mshelia et al., 2025) have all agreed that climate is changing. Authenticating and proof  of climate change includes delayed onset date and  time  of rains, increase in number of dry days during the raining season and increase in maximum temperature which leads to global warming and seasonal variability, increased frequency and intensity of weather extreme events such as drought, decline in rainfall amount (Olayide, Alabi & Okechukwu, 2024). The main characteristics of climate change are increase in average global temperature (global warming), changes in cloud cover and precipitation, increase in temperatures, and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Change in climate occurs in two ways namely: climatic warming and climatic cooling. Climatic cooling is when the temperature of a system or region exhibits continuous declining trend over a considerable period of time, while the reverse is the case for climatic warming (Umar, Adebayo, & Abubakar 2019).

According to Agbo, Nkajoe & Edet, 2023), are of the view that the perceived climate change as change of weather patterns over a long period of time and change of trend of annual weather patterns. However average weather conditions over 30-years time intervals are used to track climate. These 30-year averages are called “climatological normal”, and are used to determine, monitor or represent the climate – or a specific slice of climate at a particular location (Harris, 2004).  Umar, Adebayo, and Abubakar (2019), are of the view that drastic changes in the climate systems are either due to natural forces or unsustainable human activities results. Global climate varies naturally, due to both ‘internal variability’ within the climate system and changes in external forcing unrelated to human behaviour for example, changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activity, ( Audu, Okeke & Igbawa, 2022).

Climate variability is determined by prevailing patterns of sea surface temperature, atmospheric wind, and regional climate fluctuations, (IPCC, 2019). Most scholarly work have shown that temperature is rising and rainfall frequency and intensity is fluctuating. Climate variation occurs on various temporal scales, varying from a few decades to millions of years depending on the time scale within which such variation occur, (Sasanya, Ademola & Adesogan, 2024). Higher global surface temperatures can probably lead to changes in precipitation and atmospheric moisture, because of changes in atmospheric circulation, a more active hydrological cycle, and increases in the water holding capacity throughout the atmosphere.

The Study Area

Location and extent of Bade LG A

Bade Local Government Area is situated in the Semi-Arid zone of Yobe State in the North Eastern part of Nigeria, approximately Latitude 12^º 52ʺ N 10^º 58ʺ and Latitude 12^º 867ʺ N 10^º 967ʺ E of the Equator, and Longitude 10^º 02ʺ and 11^º 11ʺ East of the Greenwich meridian. Bade Local Government Area share common boundaries with Nguru, Karasuwa, and Yusufari Local Government Area to the North, Bursari to the East, Jakusko to the South, and Jigawa State to the West respectively.  It has a total land area of approximately 772km² and a total population of 139,782 based on 2006 census figure, (Oladimeji, Salako,  Garba 2015, and Alhassan, Gashua, Dogo, and Sani, 2018).

MATERIALS AND METHOD

In order to assess  the trend and pattern of climatic variables of Bade Local Government area, four climatic data such as Maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, were collected in Bade local government area from Garin Alkali Meteorological station, North East Arid Zone Development Programme (NEAZP), for the period of forty (40) years from 1979-2018. The climatic data collected was analyzed statistically using descriptive statistic of mean standard deviation through the use of Microsoft Excel.  These was used in calculating the mean or  averaged  temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and annual rainfall totals, and also the onset, cessation, length of raining season (LRS) and seasonality index (SI) using trend analysis to determine the seasonal changes in the climatic variables.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Analysis of Climate Variables

Rainfall

The linear equaton shows increase in value of rainfall trend in the study area, at the rate of (3.1848) as reflected in Figure: 2. The highest rainfall years in Bade LG A are 2017, 2012, and 1994 with the maximum value of rainfall at755.10 mm, 656.10 mm, and 636.10 mm respectively, while the year with minimum value was in 1983 at 224.70 mm. At the initial stage, the rainfall increases with some fluctuations in the study area. The general annual rainfall pattern in Bade LGA shows significant upward increase over the years. This is due to unique nature of the study area and the general shift in the climate pattern as a result of increased global warming and extreme weather events. This confirmed the idea of Ibrahim, Usman, Abdulkadir & Emigilati, 2020), that the consequences of climate change include, changing pattern of precipitation and higher intensity of rainfall, due to rise in global climate which could likely lead to increase frequency and severity of flooding. This was further affirmed by Sidi, (2022), Jidawa, (2016), that climate change is real as it continues to change the held notion about ecological environment as towns that are mainly dry savanna belt and close to Sahel are now experiencing unprecedented torrential rainfall which consequently resulted to flooding in Yobe State, where over 400, and over 300 households were destroyed in 2012, and, 2016 in Bade local government and it environs.

Figure: 2; Annual Rainfall Trend of Bade L.G.A.

Source: Author’s Analysis, (2025).

Relative Humidity

The annual trend of relative humidity shows linear equation at the rate of (-0.0122) change. The year 1984, has the maximum increase in relative humidity at 49.8%, while 2015 show the minimum decline in the trend line at 32.5%. The remaining year’s show little variation over the years as indicated in Figure: 2, this suggests possible decrease in the moisture content with increase in temperature leading to recurrent drought in Bade LGA. This view is supported by Olagunju (2015) that decrease moisture, and drought frequency will probably increase due to less rainfall and increase evaporation mainly caused by increase temperature.

Figure: 3; Mean Annual Relative Humidity Trend of Bade L.G.A.

Source: Author’s Analysis, (2025)

 Mean Temperature

The mean temperature in Bade L.G.A increases in the trend line equation over the years at the rate of (0.0496). The year 2018 shows the maximum temperature at the value of 29.03⁰c, while 1980 recorded the minimum temperature at the value of 26.10⁰c as shown in Figure: 3; The trend indicated that there is an fluctuation and abnormal  in the mean annual temperature of  the study area. The trend   suggests that mean annual maximum and minimum temperature of Bade is fast increasing; this is due to unique characteristics of the study area, increasing human activities and the general increase in the global temperature subsequently resulting to excessive heat and aridity stress.

This is in consistent with the work of Platikanoy et al.,(2025), that fluctuation  in temperature is a reflection of the global warming can stimulate and triggered  general increase in the earth’s temperature. This is further affirmed by Pingale, Adamowski, Jat, and Khare, (2015) that increase temperatures are accelerated by topography, increase aerosol due to anthropogenic activity as a result of population explosion, consequently leading to reduction in forest cover, and general change in the global climate system.

Figure: 4; Mean Annual Temperature Trend of Bade L.G.A

Source: Author’s Analysis, (2025)

Wind Speed

The monthly and annual mean wind speed for the period of 40 years, between years of 1979 to 2018 is illustrated in the trend graph as indicated in figure: 5; The wind speed in Bade L.G.A increases at the rate of (0.0068) over the years with maximum value at 5.41m/sec in 2018, and 1995, with minimum value at 2.16m/sec in 1991, and some variations across the years.

This suggests that there is increase frequency of wind speed, which significantly accelerates sand storms, increase aerosol, and increase dryness as a result of decline in vegetation in the study area. This coincides with the findings by Ogolo & Matthew, 2022), that as the wind moves the hotter drier air it tends to exert a drying effect on lands.

Figure: 5; Mean Annual Wind Speed Trend of Bade L.G.A

Source: Authors Analysis, (2025)

Onset of Rainfall

The onset trend of rainfall in Bade LGA exhibits an upward trend with some fluctuations over the years. Figure: 6; indicated early onset days in 2002, and 1980 while 1991 and 1986 has late onset days in August, the remaining years keep on fluctuating. This indicates that the rainfall in Bade is starting late. The trend of the onset of the study area suggests the evidence of extreme weather events leading to increasing climate change impact.

This is inline with the view of  Shugaba & Ahmed, 2020), the indication of  climate change which resulting in delayed of  onset date of rainfall, increase in number of dry days during the raining season and increase in maximum temperature, and this leads to warmer seasons, erratic  frequency and  intensity of weather extreme events such as drought, and decline in rainfall amount.

Figure: 6, Onset of Rainfall Trend of Bade L.G.A

Source: Authors Analysis, (2025)

Cessation of Rainfall

Rainfall cessation of the study area shows slight increase across years. The year 2003 indicated early rainfall cessation around 13^th August. While 2004 has late cessation at the 26 September. Most cessation ranges from 22 August to 23 September as indicated in Figure: 7; This shows that the rainfall in Bade LGA now starts late and end earlier. It can be deduced that despite increase in the rainfall intensity, early rainfall cessation in Bade Local Government Area will further accelerate dry conditions with possible increase desertification and consequently drought.

This agrees with Abu Arra, Alashan & Sisman, 2025) that low precipitation will lead to increased surface temperature thereby contributing to increased dryness of the land, consequently leading to desertification.

Figure: 7; Rainfall Cessation Trend of Bade L.G.A

Source: Authors Analysis, (2025)

Duration(period) of Raining Season (DRS)

The duration of raining season (DRS) in  the study area begins with high days of LRS in 1979, with 130 days, and then declines slightly in 2002 with 110 days to 90 days in 2018 as shown in figure 8. This indicated that there is general decline in the raining days with some fluctuation in the study area. This implies that continues decrease in rainy days will lead to drought and desertification, while increase raining days (LRS) will amount to possible flooding in the study area.

Figure: 8; Length of Rainy Season Trend of Bade L.G.A

Source: Authors Analysis, (2025)

Seasonality Index (SI)

Rainfall seasonality is a complex concept which incorporates a number of independent components. Seasonality asses the seasonal contrasts in rainfall amounts, dryness, and wetness, hence it provides information about the inter-annual variation in seasonality, (Shawul & Chakma, 2020). In the data, as presented and analyzed in Figure: 9 of the seasonality index reveal variation in the mean value of rainfall of the study area; at the rate of 1.1479. This indicates increase in the seasonality index of the study area across the years with exception of 2002 with low value (89420), the rest keep increasing by years. This suggests increase dry days in Bade L.G.A.

Figure: 9, Seasonality Index Trend of Bade L.G.A

Source: Authors Analysis, (2025)

CONCLUSION

The result of the rainfall as analyzed, trend shows that there is relevant  increase in the yearly l rainfall. The annual trend of relative humidity shows decline in the trend line at 32.5%.   The occurrence  of mean annual  temperature  of  both  maximum and minimum temperature of the study area is fast increasing leading to moisture deficit in Bade L.G.A.  The mean monthly/annual wind speed trend shows increases at the rate of (0.0068) over the years in the study area with increase frequency of sand storm, and aerosol with increase dryness. Delay in onset of rain, early cessation of rain, decreased length of rainy season, and increase in seasonality further accelerate dry conditions in the study area.

RECOMMENDATION

Knowledge of climates pattern is necessary for better planning and intervention strategies. Adaptation strategies on how to respond to climate variability such, rainfall fluctuation, increase temperature, moisture deficit, increased wind storm, delay in the beginning   of rain, and early cessation, decrease in rainy days, and dry- spell is critical. Also urgent positive action and policies are to be designed by the stake holders, government and private sectors in need to ensuring sustainable and safe environment from vulnerability of climate change impacts.

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