Electricity Transmission Infrastructure’s Vulnerability and Climate Change Resilience in Kajiado County, Kenya.

Electricity Transmission Infrastructure’s Vulnerability and Climate Change Resilience in Kajiado County, Kenya.

Clifford Siocha; Dr Paul Thomas Obade, PhD; and Dr Felix Mingáte, PhD

Kenyatta University and Kenya Electrcity Transmission Company, Nairobi, Kenya

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.905000500

Received: 14 May 2025; Accepted: 20 May 2025; Published: 25 June 2025

ABSTRACT

This study explores the factors affecting the resilience and vulnerability to climate change of electricity transmission infrastructure in Kajiado County, Kenya. The study adopted ordinal regression and Spearman correlation to analyse quantitative data.  Qualitative insights from sector experts were analysed using content and descriptive analysis. GIS-based analysis was applied to determine the intervening aspect of topography and terrain in assessing the level of exposure to impact to climate hazards. The primary variables in the study were extreme temperature and rainfall, the intervening variables being technical, environmental, and socioeconomic factors and the prevailing policy and legal framework. Vulnerability and resilience were the study’s dependent variables.  The findings indicated that while climate factors such as extreme temperature and rainfall are generally assumed to be critical, our findings reveal that they are not statistically significant predictors of infrastructure vulnerability in this context. Instead, socioeconomic variables and regulatory policies emerge as key enablers of resilience. Insights from industry practitioners highlight real-world operational disruptions including equipment overheating, line sag, flooding, and soil erosion. These findings suggest that vulnerability arises not solely from environmental exposure but from a confluence of technical limitations, developmental gaps, and inadequate policy implementation. The study calls for a comprehensive resilience strategy that integrates scientific evidence with practical field realities.

Keywords: Electricity transmission, resilience, vulnerability, climate change, policy regulations, socioeconomic factors, Kajiado, Kenya

INTRODUCTION

Background of Study

Electricity transmission systems are indispensable to socio-economic progress, yet they face increasing threats from climate change impacts. These infrastructural systems are capital intensive in their nature and are designed for long design life of over 40 years. This is especially true in developing regions such as Kajiado County, Kenya, where infrastructure is exposed to extreme weather. This paper investigates the extent to which climate factors with emphasis on extreme temperature and rainfall, environmental dynamics, socioeconomic dynamics, technical dynamics, and policy interventions influence infrastructure vulnerability and resilience to climate change. Using both statistical modelling and field-based observation, the study provides an understanding of the interplay of the above factors in shaping the resilience of the electricity transmission infrastructure.

Problem Statement

A reliable and stable supply of electricity is crucial for societal well-being and development, especially amid growing demand and challenges heightened by impacts attributable to climate change (Burillo, 2018; Küfeoğlu et al., 2014). Over time global north has demonstrated resilience in their power system. On the other hand, the global south, with emphasis on the Sub-Saharan African like Kenya, faces significant hurdles due to technological constraints, a shrinking fiscal capacity and inadequate human capacity constraints that hampered deliberate investment into infrastructure resilience. The African continent is extremely affected by climate change, impacting its power sector (UNEP, 2020) despite its low emission contributions. Kenya, for example, has experienced power rationing due to climate-attributable events such as droughts and floods (Makau et al., 2020). Local studies have contributed to knowledge on climate change impacts on power generation, especially hydroelectric systems, leaving a knowledge gap in the vulnerability and resilience of power transmission infrastructure to climate change impacts. This study investigates specific climate change’s impact on the vulnerability and resilience of electricity transmission infrastructure with emphasis on extreme temperature and rainfall. It also investigates the contribution of environmental, socio-economic, prevailing policy and legal factors as intervening variables. By considering the socio-economic importance of a reliable and stable power supply, the research contributes to the body of knowledge towards enhancing infrastructure climate change resilience. The outcomes are expected to guide policy formulation, infrastructure planning, and designing ultimately fostering a more resilient and sustainable electricity transmission network in vulnerable regions like Kajiado County.

Justification

This study looks at how climate change is affecting Kenya’s critical infrastructure, especially electricity transmission. These systems are not only expensive to build and maintain, but they’re also essential for powering the country’s economy. With climate-related disruptions becoming more common, like floods and extreme heat, their impact and risk to these vital assets are growing.

Kajiado County was chosen as the focus because it’s already feeling the effects of climate hazards. It also plays a key role in Kenya’s power network and even supports the wider East African region. By studying changes in temperature and rainfall in this area, the research aims to better understand the local impacts of climate change. The findings are intended to guide practical strategies and policies that will help ensure a more robust electricity transmission network even as the climate continues to shift.

Significance

This study contributes to the body of knowledge on how the interface between climate variables, environmental, socioeconomic, technical factors and prevailing policy framework impact electricity transmission systems’ vulnerability and resilience to climate change. The study supports SDGs 7, 9, and 13 by promoting access to reliable, climate-resilient energy, encouraging sustainable infrastructure, and advancing climate action through improved risk and resilience planning. By examining how climatic and non-climatic factors interact, this study addresses a gap in existing research on the vulnerability and resilience of electricity transmission infrastructure to climate change.

Research Objectives

The broad objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the vulnerability and resilience of electricity transmission infrastructure in Kajiado County.

The specific objectives are: –

To assess the effects of extreme heat and extreme rainfall on the vulnerability and resilience of electricity transmission infrastructure in Kajiado County

To analyze the environmental, technical, and socio-economic factors contributing to the vulnerability of electricity transmission infrastructure in Kajiado County.

To evaluate the effectiveness of current policies, regulations, and guidelines in integrating climate change considerations and enhancing resilience in the development of transmission infrastructure

To examine the resilience of electricity transmission infrastructure to the impacts of extreme rainfall and temperature in Kajiado County.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Theoretical Framework

This study builds on Folke’s Resilience Theory (Folke, 2006), which defines resilience as a system’s ability to withstand, adapt to, and transform in response to disturbances while maintaining its core function. Initially developed for socio-ecological systems (Holling, 1973; Berkes & Folke, 1998), the theory is increasingly applied to physical systems, such as electricity infrastructure. Complementary concepts from Complex Adaptive Systems (Levin, 1998) support this systems-thinking approach, which is vital in understanding how infrastructure can adapt and evolve in response to compounding risks.

Assessment of Infrastructure Resilience

Infrastructure resilience is often measured through the “4Rs”: robustness, redundancy, rapidity, and resourcefulness (Cimellaro et al., 2014; Vadali et al., 2015). Scholars have used probabilistic and scenario-based models to assess resilience under various shocks such as earthquakes, pandemics, and climate hazards (Capacci & Biondini, 2020; Shafieezadeh & Burden, 2014). Multi-hazard and cascading risk models (Argyroudis et al., 2020) emphasize the need for systems capable of recovering quickly and maintaining service continuity under stress.

Principles of Infrastructure Resilience

According to the UNDRR (2020), six core principles, continuous learning, proactive protection, environmental integration, social engagement, shared responsibility, and adaptive transformation are essential to building resilient infrastructure. These principles guide planning and decision-making for systems that are dynamic, inclusive, environmentally conscious, and forward-looking (Lau et al., 2018; Barabadi et al., 2020).

Factors Influencing Infrastructure Vulnerability and Resilience

The vulnerability of electricity transmission infrastructure stems from environmental hazards (e.g., floods, storms), technical issues (e.g., design criteria, adaptive designs, ageing assets), and socio-economic challenges (e.g., affordability, governance) (Obuya et al., 2019; Nyangena et al., 2018). These interconnected factors determine how well systems can absorb shocks and adapt to climate change, especially in rapidly urbanizing areas like Kajiado County.

METHODOLOGY

Data Collection

Primary data was collected through structured surveys with experts within the electricity transmission subsector in Kenya. The experts included environmentalists, surveyors, socioeconomics, surveyors and economists. Secondary data was sourced from national databases such as the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), World Bank, African Development Bank and International Panel of Climate Change. Climate data was obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department while flood maps were obtained from ESRI’s database and the Kenya Red Cross.

Quantitative Analysis

The Shapiro–Wilk test was used to assess data normality after applying a log10 transformation. All variables had p-values less than 0.05 indicating the data did not follow a normal distribution. Therefore, non-parametric methods, specifically ordinal regression analysis, were used for further analysis.

Following this outcome, statistical analysis employed ordinal regression and Spearman correlation analyses were employed in analysing independent variables and a few intervening variables.

Climate Factors: extreme rainfall and extreme temperature.

Non-climate factors (intervening variables): socioeconomic factors (budget availability, stakeholder engagement and Indigenous knowledge) and budget

Qualitative Analysis

GIS-based vulnerability analysis was also adopted in determining the intervening potential of terrain and topography as environmental factors. Descriptive analysis was employed for technical factors by evaluating the current practice in climate risk assessments and consideration of future climate data and adaptive designs.

Interviews with field experts were transcribed and thematically analysed. Recurring themes included line sag during high-temperature periods, transformer overheating, limited access during floods, and erosion around transmission towers. These provided valuable context to the statistical findings, illustrating how environmental and technical factors, while not always statistically significant, still have considerable operational impact.

RESULTS

Quantitative Findings

An ordinal regression model was employed to evaluate the impact of extreme temperature, extreme rainfall, socio-economic factors, and policy regulations on the vulnerability and resilience of electricity transmission infrastructure in Kajiado, Kenya. The model accounted for 17.5% of the variation in vulnerability and resilience. Results indicated that extreme temperature (p = 0.894) and extreme rainfall (p = 0.076) were not significant predictors of infrastructure resilience. Conversely, socio-economic factors (p = 0.046) and policy regulations (p = 0.002) significantly influenced resilience, with both factors positively affecting infrastructure, and policy regulations exhibiting the strongest effect.

Complementing this, Spearman correlation analysis further explored these relationships. The analysis revealed weak, non-significant negative correlations between resilience and extreme temperature (-0.011, p = 0.921) as well as extreme rainfall (-0.083, p = 0.45). In contrast, resilience showed significant positive correlations with socio-economic factors (0.237, p = 0.028) and policy regulations (0.301, p = 0.005). These findings underscore the crucial role of socio-economic conditions and regulatory frameworks in enhancing the resilience of electricity transmission infrastructure, whereas climatic extremes appeared less directly influential within this context.

Qualitative Findings

The field data confirmed that infrastructure faces tangible threats during extreme weather events. The planning and design of the infrastructure incorporates an implied approach to climate risk assessment, however comprehensive assessment approach has not been done, and it is not imperative in the current policy and legal framework. The design also considers historical climate data rather than future climate data leaving the infrastructure exposed to future extremes and is equally a gap in policy. The infrastructure operation while making use of early warning information to determine potential maintenance and hardening, they lacks design-inherent early warning systems. The findings also indicate lack of specific resilience kitty to meet the overdesign principle and proactive maintenance as part of infrastructural hardening.

Prolonged extreme temperature can lead to equipment malfunctions such as increased wear and tear, line expansion and reduced conductors’ ampacity. Heavy rains result in soil instability, limited accessibility for repairs, quick vegetation overgrowth, soil erosion around tower foundations and sedimentation in substation storm drains.

DISCUSSION

Combining empirical data and expert insights reveals that electricity transmission vulnerability in Kajiado is shaped by a combination of environmental factors, and policy weaknesses. Though climate variables were not statistically dominant, their indirect impacts, particularly when amplified by inadequate planning and weak enforcement, are significant. Socioeconomic factors such as poverty, lack of community awareness, and insufficient technical capacity further complicate resilience-building efforts.

Our findings underscore the importance of mainstreaming climate adaptation into infrastructure design and operational policies. Capacity-building programs, improved funding mechanisms, and community-based engagement models should be integrated into resilience planning frameworks.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Summary of findings

Extreme temperature and rainfall have limited direct effects on transmission infrastructure resilience, but other environmental and socio-economic factors significantly influence impacts. Transmission lines are more resilient to heat than heavy rain, though future climate risks need further study. Current policies guide design, but stronger mandates are needed to integrate climate risk. Overall, Kajiado’s infrastructure shows some resilience, but its future performance under worsening climate conditions is uncertain.

Conclusion

Extreme temperature and rainfall have a limited direct impact on electricity transmission infrastructure, but their effects should not be ignored given the infrastructure’s long lifespan and importance. Environmental, socio-economic, and technical factors significantly influence vulnerability and can worsen climate impacts. Kenya’s policies support stakeholder engagement but do not require climate risk assessments or future climate data use in infrastructure planning. In Kajiado, transmission infrastructure is generally resilient due to system redundancy, but some parts remain vulnerable to climate risks like flooding and erosion, which could hinder the optimal future performance of the infrastructure.

Recommendations

To enhance the resilience of electricity transmission infrastructure, targeted capacity-building is needed to train personnel in climate science, risk modelling, and climate-informed design focused on extreme temperature and rainfall. A holistic planning approach should integrate environmental, socio-economic, and technical factors alongside climate risks, supported by dedicated resilience financing in project development. Strengthening policy frameworks to mandate comprehensive, participatory climate risk assessments using future climate scenarios is essential. Organizations should formalize and communicate adaptive strategies, embedding climate resilience as an ongoing institutional commitment to ensure preparedness and informed decision-making amid growing climate challenges.

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