Impact of Government Monetary Policy on Agricultural Sector Growth in Nigeria

Impact of Government Monetary Policy on Agricultural Sector Growth in Nigeria

*¹Okaforocha, C M., ¹Imoagwu, C P., ²Omeje J A., ¹Sule, M.

¹Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria

²Department Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Enugu State University of Science and Technology, Enugu State, Nigeria

*Corresponding Author

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.915EC0035

Received: 05 April 2025; Accepted: 09 April 2025; Published: 19 May 2025

ABSTRACT

The research is a study of government monetary policy and agricultural sector growth in Nigeria covering time series data from 1990-2022. It investigated the impact of government monetary policy on agricultural sector output using crop production output as proxy. The variables included in the model are CRPO as proxy for agricultural sector output, ACGS as proxy for agricultural credit guarantee scheme, INTR representing interest rate, MONS as money supply and RFALL a proxy for rainfall. These data were sourced from central bank of Nigeria (CBN), Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS), World Bank data portal, commercial banks and climate change knowledge portal. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) multiple regressions was used to estimate the parameters and the results revealed a positive and significant relationship between ACGS and CRPO while the relationship between RFALL and CRPO was also positive but insignificant. The relationship between INTR, MONS and CRPO was negative and insignificant. About 78% of the variation in CRPO was adequately explained by the variations in the dependent variables. The study concluded that ACGS, INTR and RFALL impacted on agricultural sector growth while MONS was seen as not significantly impacting on the sector. The study recommended strict adherence to policy on agricultural credit guarantee scheme, fair interest rate placement and proper monitoring loan granting commercial banks, harmonization of policies that has to do with interest rate and money supply and provision of alternative sources of water during drought and during dry season.

Keywords: Government, Monetary, Policy, Agriculture, Sector, Growth

INTRODUCTION

Agriculture is the practice or science of farming, an art, and practice of cultivating the soil, growing of crops, rearing of livestock, and to some extent, preparing and marketing the resulting products (Oxford Dictionary). It is also the cultivation and breeding of animals, plants, fungi, and other life forms for food, fiber, medicinal plants, and other products used to sustain and enhance human life.

Agricultural sector includes a wide variety of activities, involving crop production, livestock management, forestry and fishery. Agriculture is a vital component of Nigeria’s economy, employing large proportion of the population and contributing to the country’s GDP. Nigeria’s agricultural sector employs about 70% of the workforce and contributes about 24% to the country’s GDP, Ajayi et al [2017] states. The sector plays a vital role in food production, income generation, and poverty reduction, particularly in rural areas. According to Aminu and Inusa (2022), the agricultural sector contributes remarkably to job creation in Nigeria, being the greatest employer of labour particularly in rural areas. This high rate of employment helps in reducing unemployment and underemployment, which are crucial to the county’s development. Furthermore, the agricultural sector is a source of income for many people, especially for small-scale farmers. Eze et al [2016] noted that small-scale farmers in Nigeria obtain their means of support and incomes from agricultural activities, contributing to the overall earnings of household and economic well-being. Again, agricultural exportation of agricultural products such as cocoa, cashew nuts and sesame seeds has played an important role in foreign exchange revenues. Agricultural exports have been a significant source of foreign exchange revenues for Nigeria, Kamil et al (2021) states, providing to the trade balance and overall stability in the economy.

Agricultural sector in Nigeria is also a large supplier of raw materials for industrial use thereby contributing to the economic growth of Nigeria. Agricultural products such as cassava, palm oil, rubber, and cotton are essential raw materials for many industries in Nigeria. Cassava for example is used in the production of ethanol, animal feed, and starch, while palm oil is a key ingredient in the production of soaps, detergents, and food products. The textile and garment industry is heavily dependent on raw materials obtained from the agricultural sector, especially cotton, for the production of textiles and fabrics (Noufou et al , 2019). This aspect highlights the important role of the agricultural sector in Nigeria’s economic growth, which not only provides food and employment but also serves as an important raw material supplier for industrial activities.

Agriculture in Nigeria is divided into four main subsectors: crop production [e.g. cereals, root tubers, vegetables], animal husbandry [e.g. poultry, cattle, sheep], fishery, and forestry which serve both domestic and export markets. In addition, the Nigerian agricultural sector has been gaining a lot of attention in recent years, thanks to a variety of programs and initiatives designed to improve efficiency, ameliorate agricultural value chains, and promote agribusiness (Ogbalubi & Wokocha, 2013)

Monetary policy encompasses deliberate governmental actions aimed at altering the money supply, costs, size, and direction of credit to regulate economic activities and attain desired macroeconomic stability [Chigbu & Okonkwo, 2014]. It impacts the agricultural sector through various channels such as interest rates, credit accessibility, money supply, exchange rates, inflation management and financial inclusivity [CBN 2020]. The central bank of Nigeria [CBN] has implemented several monetary policies to support and stimulate agricultural sector growth. One of the most important policies is the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund [ACGSF], established in 1978. This fund aims to provide guarantees against risk in agricultural lending and encourage financial institutions to extend credit facilities to farmers and agribusinesses [Takwi 2021]. In addition, Nigeria’s Incentive-Based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Loans [NIRSAL], introduced in 2013 is a risk mitigation program. It provides bank credit guarantees to increase lending to the agricultural sector and reduces the perceived risks associated with agricultural financing [Takwi, 2021]. Another key policy launched by the Central Bank of the United States [CBC] in 2015 was the Anchor Borrower Program [ABP], which provides financial assistance to small-scale farmers, especially in the production of certain crops such as rice, corn, and cotton. The initiative encourages cooperation between anchor companies and small farmers to improve production, ensure market access, and ultimately improve the growth of the agricultural sector [Okaforocha et al, 2020]. These monetary policies have had a remarkable impact on Nigeria’s agricultural sector growth, facilitating greater access to finance, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and improving the productivity and income of farmers.

Despite the significant importance the agricultural sector holds in the Nigeria’s economy, driving employment, food security, and overall economic progress, persistent challenges hinder sustained growth and productivity. Real output growth in the agricultural sector declined from 5.4% in 2010 to 2.8% 2012 and 1.3% in 2014, with slight increases to 3.61% and 4.6% in 2020 respectively [Oluwatoyese, 2022]. A major obstacle to Nigerian agricultural sector growth is the limited access to financial services for farmers and agribusiness owners, who comprise approximately 70% of the population. Farmers require capital for land acquisition, equipment purchase, and investment in new products, technologies, and marketing strategies. However, banks often hesitate to lend to agricultural enterprises due to concerns about creditworthiness and lack of collateral. This study aims to investigate the impact of government monetary policy, particularly on the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Fund [ACGSF], interest rates, and money supply on agricultural production. Existing research lacks a comprehensive understanding of how these monetary policy factors directly affect the growth and development of Nigeria’s agricultural sector. Therefore, systematic analysis is essential to uncover the specific ways in which these variables interact and influence agricultural sector growth. In response to these issues, this study seeks to provide valuable insight for policy makers, financial institutions and agricultural stakeholders, and ultimately contribute to the formulation of targeted policy measures and interventions aimed at promoting sustainable growth and resilience in the agricultural sector.

Objectives of the study             

The general objective of this study is to analyze the effect of government monetary policy on Nigeria’s agricultural sector growth. While the specific objectives are to: examine the impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on agricultural sector growth in Nigeria,  determine the effect of interest rates on agricultural output growth in Nigeria, ascertain if money supply has a significant influence on agricultural sector growth in Nigeria and the influence of rainfall as a control variable on agricultural sector output.

Scope of Study 

This paper seeks to study how government monetary policy affects agricultural sector growth in Nigeria. This will be done using time series data from 1987 to 2022 to provide insights into how government monetary policy has influenced the growth, productivity, and sustainability of the agricultural in Nigeria.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Concept of Agriculture

Harrys and Dorian (2014), made a proposition that agriculture is putting the land into use by applying human efforts through preparation of the land and planting, tending and harvesting. They also see agriculture as livestock farming or the rearing of animals that gives benefits to man. Agriculture is also the practice of farming which is done by cultivating the soil to grow crops, keeping and nurturing livestock and preparing and marketing agricultural and aggro-allied products. Raynold and Simbarashe (2021).

Agricultural Growth

Talking of agricultural growth here, we mean increase in agricultural output or productivity. In economics, growth means increase in the overall output of the economy over a period of one year. This research is taking a look at the overall increase in agricultural output as obtained from cropping, livestock farming, fishery and forestry as a result of monetary policy of government.

Theoretical Literature Review

Three theories were reviewed: the monetarist theory of Milton Friedman, the structuralist theory of Raul Presbich and co. and the dependency theory of Andre Gunder Frank and co.

Monetarist theory

Monetarist theory was propounded by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in 1963 (Jahan et al., 2014). The theory suggests that government monetary policy, particularly changes in money supply and interest rates, has significant impacts on economic variables such as inflation, output levels and employment. It is governed by the quantity theory of money, which is given as: 𝑀𝑉 = 𝑃𝑄 where, M = money supply, V = velocity of money, P = price of goods, and Q = quantity of goods and services. Assuming that V is constant, when M is increased, either P, Q, or both P and Q would rise. When country’s money supply goes up, economic activities tend to rise as well. This shows a one-way link where monetary policy influences economic development. However, it can work the other way too. This means that the extent of economic activity can also affect monetary policy highlighting a two-way connection, known as bidirectional causality. Monetarist theory assumes that the money supply plays a crucial role in determining economic outcomes. It posits that the changes in money supply directly affect prices, inflation rates, and economic growth. Monetarists argue that controlling the growth rate of the money supply is essential to maintaining price stability and promoting sustainable economic growth. The context of agricultural sector growth in Nigeria, Monetarist Theory focuses on how monetary policy influences credit availability, interest rates for agricultural investments, and overall economic stability.

Dependency Theory

Andre Gunder Frank and Theotonio Dos Santos are prominent proponents of Dependency Theory which emerged in the 1960s and 1970s as a critical response to traditional theories of development. Dependency theory argues that developing countries are structurally dependent on developed nations for capital, technology and market access. This theory suggests that this dependence contributes to the underdevelopment of developing countries by perpetuating unequal power relations and strengthening dependence on external sources of influence. The dependency theory emphasizes the idea that the global economic system is inherently unequal and that developed countries benefit from the underdevelopment of the poorest nations, creating a cycle of dependency that impedes the economic progress of developing countries.    

Empirical Studies 

Apere & Karimo (2015) conducted a research on monetary policy chocks and agricultural output growth in Nigeria over the period of 1970 to 2012. The use the VAR model incorporating monetary policy rate, interest rate, consumer price index and agricultural output as model variables. Their findings revealed that monetary policy shocks, interest rate and consumer price have the major impacts on agricultural output growth in Nigeria. They concluded that monetary policy shocks transmitted through interest rate is more effective and recommended that agricultural sector should be revitalized through differential interest rate consequent upon the careful efforts of the monetary policy of the CBN.

Adesiyan et al (2022) investigated effect of the Nigerian monetary policy: an empirical investigation on the Nigerian agricultural output (2005 – 2020). The variables include agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP), exchange rate (EXC), inflation (INF), interest rate (INT), money supply (MS) and agricultural credit. The use the ordinary least square (OLS) regression to find out that there was a unidirectional relationship running from AGDP to EXC while a bidirectional relationship runs from INF to AGDP and vice versa. Both MS and INT are positive in their relationship with agricultural output. They recommended that government should prioritize programs that will guarantee access to credit by farmers to avoid exposing the sector to monetary shocks in the short or medium term. Interest rate should be as low as possible to ensure continuous growth of output.

Aseleye et al (2018) carried out a study on monetary policy channels and agricultural performance: evidence from Nigeria for a period of twenty years using structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) regression. The variables of the model are agricultural performance through output employment and export, credits, interest rate money supply and exchange rate. The SVAR showed that forecast error shocks of monetary policy channel affect agricultural performance. The DOLS result showed a positive relationship between agricultural output and money supply, negative relationship with employment and interest rate and also between interest and exchange rate. They recommended that the government should look beyond mere stabilizing the economy through adjustment in money supply and interest rate and do more in terms of boosting employment and ensuring output growth in agriculture.

Ekine & Nwaokedibe (2018) researched on the topic effect of monetary policies on agricultural output in Nigeria between 1981 and 2016. They employed the static and dynamic regression model to involve money supply, prime lending rate, deposit money bank credit to agriculture and inflation on agricultural output. The error correction model revealed that one lag of money supply and deposit money bank credits to agriculture have significant positive impact on agricultural output. The lag of inflation impacted negatively on agricultural output. The researchers recommended that the CBN should be more focused on implementing expansionary monetary policy to increase the monetary aggregate that will ensure increased output in the sector.

Elaigwe & Okpe (2022) wrote on monetary policy and agricultural sector performance in Nigeria: a granger causality approach covering 1981 to 2020. The dependent variable agricultural performance was represented by agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP) while the independent variables are money supply (MS), monetary discount rate (MR), exchange rate (ER), prime lending rate (PR) and agricultural sector implicit price deflator (ASI). The findings showed a bidirectional relationship among MS, MR, PR, ER and agricultural performance signifying that monetary policy affects agricultural output and vise vasa. They recommended that policy makers should be more concern about policies that improve agricultural output growth since they also affect MS, MR, PR and ER.

Udeaja & Udoh (2014) studied effect of monetary policy on agricultural sector in Nigeria from 1970 to 2010 capturing lending rate, commercial bank credits to agriculture, exchange rate, government expenditure in agriculture and inflation rate. The auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) model was adopted and the result showed that exchange rate and government expenditure had positive and significant relationship with agricultural output. Their recommendation was that a realistic exchange rate aimed at boosting agricultural export in the country be implemented and government should put in place infrastructures and institutions to help monetary policy impact positively on agriculture.

Theoretical Framework

The basis for the foundation of this research is the monetarist theory since it says money supply and other monetary instruments like interest rate and prices can affect output. The study sees to how money supply, interest rate on lending and rate of giving credits to the public with particular consideration to farmers affect agricultural output in Nigeria.

Methods and Model

The data for this study are purely time series secondary data covering from 1990 to 2022 and sourced from the data portal of central bank of Nigeria (CBN) and data bank of World Bank. The model for the study is ordinary least square adopted from Adesiyan et al (2022) and modified in the variables.

AGSG = f(ACGS, INTR, MONS, RFALL)

AGSG_t = ꞵ₁ + ꞵ₂ ACGS_t + ꞵ₃INTR_t + ꞵ₄MONS_t + ꞵ₅RFALL_t + µ

Where

CRPO = Crop production output as proxy for

Agricultural sector growth

ACGS = Agricultural credit guarantee scheme

INTR = Interest rate

MONS = Money supply

RFALL = Rainfall

ꞵ₁ = the intercept

 ꞵ_2, ꞵ_3, ꞵ_4, and ꞵ_5, = parameters of estimation

µ = error term

Table 1: Variable Measurement and Sources

Data Presentation and Analysis of Results

Table 2. Dickey Fuller Unit root Test

Source: Author’s extracts from E-views

Table 1 is the result of Dickey Fuller unit root test showing that all the variables are stationary at first difference. This is indicated by comparing the ADF statistic and the critical values at 5%. The rule is that if the ADF statistic is greater than the critical value in absolute terms at 5%, we reject the null hypothesis that the variable is not stationary or contains unit root otherwise accept it. As observed from the table, the absolute values of all the variables are greater than the absolute values of the critical values at 5%. So, we say that they do not contain unit root after first difference.

Table 3. Results of OLS Regression

R-Squared = 0.7823, F-statistic = 53.7668, Prob. = 0.0000

Source: Author’s extracts from E-views

Table 2 is the OLS regression output showing the variables, their coefficients, standard errors, t-statistic and probabilities. The results show that ACGS has a positive and significant relationship with CRPO the proxy for agricultural output at less than 5% while rainfall also has a positive but not significant relationship with CRPO. Both INTR and MONS have negative and insignificant relationship with CRPO as seen from Table 2. The coefficient of determination with its F-statistic is also significant at less than 5%.

DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

The direct and significant relationship between ACGS and CRPO means that they move in the same directions. It shows that as agricultural credit guarantee scheme intensify, agricultural sector output growth increases and vice versa. The implication is that if agricultural credit guarantee scheme is upgraded by a unit shift, crop production output as a proxy for agricultural sector output growth will increase by approximately 9,500%.

INTR had a negative but insignificant relationship with CRPO implying that both move in opposite direction. It entails that as interest rate increases crop production as a proxy for agricultural sector output decreases and increases when interest rate decreases. The result indicates that if interest rate is increased by 1%, crop production output will decrease by a huge sum percentage of approximately 18,600% which is a great fall in agricultural sector growth in the country. This discovery is in tandem with the finding of Apere and Karimo (2015) but in disagreement with the finding of Aseleye (2018)

MONS as presented in the table also shows a negative and insignificant relationship with CRPO the proxy for agricultural sector growth. They move in opposite direction just like in the case of interest rate. The implication of the result is that as money supply increases by a unit naira, crop production will fall at the rate of roughly 61, 360% and it means a huge fall in agricultural sector output. The insignificant nature of money supply may be due to interest rate which may be high because farmers or investors may not be able to obtain funds. This finding is in contrast to the finding of Adesiyan (2022) but in agreement with the finding of Aseleye (2018)

RFALL showed a positive but not significant relationship with CRPO indicating that they are directly related implying that as rainfall increases crop production output also increases. If rainfall increases by a unit millimeter crop production output will increase by above 39% which will be a boost to agricultural sector growth. None of the review literatures included rainfall as a variable and so, there was no basis for comparison.

The R-Squared value 0.7823 shows that about 78% of the variation in the dependent variable is due to the changes in the dependent variables. The F-statistic 0.000 is less than 5% indicating the appropriateness of the model of the study.

Study Gap

The study covered from 1990 to 2022 which is different from the years covered in the reviewed studies and the variables of the model like agricultural credit guarantee scheme and rainfall are not common among the variables included in the models of the reviewed researches.

Summary

The study on government monetary policy agricultural sector growth in Nigeria was conducted using data from 1990-2022 with variables of study such as CRPO, ACGS, INTR, MONS and RFALL. The data were not stationary at level but, after converting to first difference they become stationary.

The ordinary least square (OLS) regression was applied as analytical tool for estimation and the relationship between ACGS and CRPO was positive and significant while that of RFALL with CRPO was positive but not significant. INTR and MONS both have negative and insignificant relationships with CRPO.

The R-Squared value is 0.7823 with F-statistic 53.7668 and P-Value of 0.0000 showing that about 78% of the change in CRPO is accounted for by the variation in ACGS, INTR, MONS and RFALL. The Probability value of the F-statistic 0.0000 is less than 5% meaning that out model is appropriate.

CONCLUSIONS

The variable ACGS being positive and significant in relationship with CRPO the study concludes agricultural credit guarantee scheme is one of the variables that significantly impact on agricultural sector growth in Nigeria.

INTR having a negative and insignificant relationship with CRPO implies that interest rate impact negatively on agricultural sector growth which is a demonstration of Keynesian theory of investment. The study concludes that interest rate although, not significant is among the variables that impact on agricultural sector growth in Nigeria.

The relationship between MONS and CRPO was also negative and insignificant indicating that even if money supply increases the impact on agricultural sector growth is insignificant. It is concluded that money supply is not impactful on agricultural sector growth in Nigeria.

RFALL was positive but not significant in its relationship with CRPO. This means that rainfall impact positively on agricultural sector growth in Nigeria. The study concluded that even though it is not significant it is a variable that impact on the sector’s output.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Based on the findings of this study the following recommendations are made;

Firstly, the agricultural credit guarantee scheme of government should be strictly for agricultural activities and should not be diverted to other commercial involvement. This can be ensured through proper monitoring by calls and check on the farm to witness the ongoing farming where the money is being invested accompanied with appraisal and retirement of funds with a view to know the progress made.

Even though interest rate was not significant, it is a very important tool of the CBN in controlling the supply of money in the economy. The government through the CBN should strictly monitor the activities of banks in giving these agricultural credit loans and making sure they are given to famers at the stipulated rates. The loans should be strictly for farming and not any other thing else.

Money supply should be controlled in line with the interest rate. There should be no policy conflict in deciding the supply of money, the aims of fixing interest rate should not be different from the reasons for money supply. They should be controlled to ensure cohesion in policy.

Rainfall is natural but, there are a times when it might not be enough during which there is drought the government should be able to provide alternative sources of water for irrigation. In addition, apart from the drought period during the dry season the government should provide people with water pumping generators for those close to water sources to pump water as supplement for rain water.

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