Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth on the Ghanaian Economy in Entrepreneurial Perspective

Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth on the Ghanaian Economy in Entrepreneurial Perspective

Edward Domina Attafuah¹, Seth Amoako², Francis Amponsah³

¹Accountant, University Health Service, University for Development Studies

²Lecturer, AAMUSTED P.O. Box 1277 kumasi

³Statistics Research and Monitoring   Unit (SRMU) CID Headquarters P O BOX 505, Accra

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.90400075

Received: 13 March 2025; Accepted: 18 March 2025; Published: 29 April 2025

ABSTRACT

This research investigates the impact of inflation on economic growth within the Ghanaian economy, a subject of ongoing debate among economists and policymakers. Eradication of purchasing power together with misdirected investment decisions has been noted by both Fischer and Mishkin as complex issues when examining macroeconomic goals for developing nations along with price stability and GDP growth promotion. A small amount of inflation may boost economic production and demand according to the authors but excessive inflation creates investment barriers and limits long-term development. The annual consumer inflation in Ghana rose to 23.8% during December 2024 based on data from Trading Economics which sparked economic worry. World Bank statistics indicate that this research seeks to guide policymakers through their development of monetary tools and fiscal instruments which sustain price stability and enduring economic expansion within Ghana.

Studies about how inflation affects GDP expansion in Ghana show contradictory information. general inflation rates seem to foster GDP growth by motivating producers to boost production for increasing profits. Research findings show that high inflation generates negative effects on GDP expansion. The research studies show discovered co-integration between economic growth and macroeconomic factors alongside inflation in Ghana. The study discovered that inflation reduces Ghana’s economic growth since it requires powerful monetary policy intervention to address this issue. The discrepant research findings show that additional studies are needed to understand the particular effects that inflation has on Ghana’s economic expansion.

The research used time series data spanning 2000–2018 while applying vector autoregressive (VAR) models for its analysis. Statistical analysis of the study showed that general inflation and low inflation levels foster GDP expansion yet high inflation rates together with government expenditure act as growth inhibitors (WJARR, 2021). The complex findings demand careful policy decisions which take into account both Ghana’s inflation situation and economic framework.

INTRODUCTION

The connection between inflation rates and economic expansion has sparked wide discussion between economists and leaders worldwide especially when studying developing nations (Barro, 2019; Fischer, 2018). Sustainable economic development guides countries through their macroeconomic policy choices by the organizations World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) through their inflation management advice (World Bank, 2023). Maintaining stable prices together with achieving GDP growth represent essential macroeconomic policies essential for developing nations to pursue (Asteriou & Hall, 2015).

Various impacts result from inflation because it decreases purchasing power and warps investment choices and economic growth could be either neutral or positive based on inflation rates. Harmful effects occur when inflation surpasses moderate levels because it halts investment growth and hinders future economic development (Bruno & Easterly, 2018; Hasanov, 2021). Research outcomes show that inflation’s effect on economic growth keeps varying because of country-specific situations and policy measures as well as inflation severity levels (Mavikela et al., 2018). Research findings demonstrate moderate inflation produces positive growth effects for certain levels but negative effects emerge when passing this threshold (Frimpong & Oteng-Abayie, 2020).

The inflation patterns in Ghana have emerged as a major issue for the country. The Ghanaian consumer price index reached its highest point in December 2024 by exceeding 23.8% compared to 23% in November 2024 according to Trading Economics data from 2025. The controlled monetary policy together with exchange rate stability cut inflation from 54.1% in December 2022 down to 23.2% in December 2023 according to World Bank (2023) reports. The Bank of Ghana aspires to achieve monetary targets for inflation management by enforcing policies that aim at annual goals between 6-9% (Nuhuman 2017). The government took budget resources from nonproductive areas to support sectors which aim to increase GDP growth according to Antwi et al (2013).

Various studies investigate the correlation between inflation rates and GDP expansion throughout the Ghanaian economy. The research by Ahiakpor & Akapare (2012) demonstrated that both low inflation and reasonable government spending enhance GDP growth but high inflation creates negative outcomes. Kankpeyeng, Mahama, & Abubakar (2021) mentioned that inflation rates have an opposing behavior compared to GDP growth while suggesting governments employ fiscal and monetary policies to address growth-limiting economic factors. Enu et al. (2023) determined that inflation shows a powerful negative link to GDP numbers thus demonstrating that proper inflation management creates economic stability. Frimpong & Oteng-Abayie (2020) established that inflation introduces major negative economic growth impacts when the annual rise exceeds 11% threshold levels.

Inflation control policies should become essential elements for maintaining economic growth based on these findings. The establishment of monetary prudence together with fiscal discipline creates fundamental elements for maintaining long-term macroeconomic stability according to Sargent (1982), Mishkin (2007) and additional researchers. The combination of smart inflation control measures with economic expansion policies will help Ghana maintain stable economic movement.

Problem Statement

Various studies examine the effects of inflation on economic growth in Ghana while researchers draw different conclusions regarding its intensity and nature. Price stabilization together with GDP maintenance represents a primary macroeconomic goal that developing nations like Ghana continuously face (Barro, 1995; Fischer, 1993). The consumer price index reached its highest possible level of 23.8% during December 2024 in Ghana because of how food along with non-alcoholic drink prices escalated (Trading Economics, 2025). The continual inflationary pressure creates serious economic threats for Ghana’s financial state (Frimpong & Oteng-Abayie 2010).

Research findings about inflation’s effect on Ghana’s GDP growth produce contradictory results. Research demonstrates that general inflation patterns have a positive influence on GDP growth since producers respond by raising their output levels for maximum profit (Ahiakpor & Akapare, 2012a). High inflation rates demonstrate a negative impact on GDP growth according to diverse research findings. According to Antwi et al. (2013) economic growth forms a co-integrated relationship with inflation along with other macroeconomic variables in Ghana and Enu et al. (2013) identified an inverse pattern between inflation and GDP in the country. Kankpeyeng, Mahama, and Abubakar (2021) figured out that inflation produces major changes to GDP growth in Ghana which demands reasonable monetary policies for the nation. Further research needs to examine the particular ways in which inflation influences Ghana’s economic growth because of the contradictory evidence presented by Mishkin (2007).

Multiple factors cause inflation to increase in Ghana. Ahiakpor and Akapare (2012b) reported that capital investment together with labor force as well as money supply and government expenditure show direct impact on GDP but inflation and interest rates affect the economy indirectly. Studies confirm that depreciation of currency and price changes in food items strongly contribute to inflation rates within Ghana (WJARR, 2021). The authors Bruno and Easterly (1998) established that inflation crises serve as barriers to long-term economic growth therefore requiring immediate stabilization of inflation rates. Stable exchange rates combined with tight monetary policies have significantly decreased inflation in Ghana from 54.1% in December 2022 to 23.2% in December 2023 according to World Bank (2023). However, the persistence of inflation above the Bank of Ghana’s target range necessitates a deeper understanding of the underlying causes and transmission mechanisms (Hasanov, 2011).

The research investigates how inflation influences economic growth in Ghana while examining the diverse interrelationships and the individual economic conditions of the nation. Analysts have examined the GDP growth effects of inflation to create price-stable policy frameworks that maintain sustainable economic growth within Ghana (Solow, 1956; Levine, 1997).

Research Objectives

This research aims to:

examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ghana from a historical and empirical perspective.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Extensive debates and research analyses how inflation relates to economic growth in Ghana but produce diverse findings regarding its impact strength. Price stability together with economic growth stability presents a core macroeconomic policy dilemma which developing nations including Ghana must address. Consumer inflation in Ghana expanded to reach 23.8% during December 2024 while food and non-alcoholic beverage prices remained primarily responsible for this new peak since April 2024. An enduring rise in inflation gives reason for concern about its economic consequences for Ghana.

Different sources present contradictory information about how inflation influences Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product growth. Studies have demonstrated that higher general inflation could stimulate production increases by businesses seeking to maximize their profits. Research findings present opposite results about the impact of increased inflation levels on GDP development. Studies by Antwi et al. (2019) established co-integration between economic expansion and macroeconomic indicators that included inflation whereas Enu et al. identified negative GDP-inflation relationships in Ghana. The contrasting research outcomes demonstrate the necessity to investigate the particular ways inflation affects Ghana’s economic growth.

Multiple indicators drive the inflationary forces in Ghana’s economy. Ahiakpor and Akapare (2022) established that GDP directly responds to capital investment and labour force changes together with money supply and government spending whereas interest rates as well as inflation work through indirect mechanisms. In Ghana inflation reflects mostly the influence of depreciated currency alongside rising food costs. Through stable exchange rates and tight monetary controls inflation rates decreased so that December 2022 marked 54.1% while December 2023 showed 23.2%. However, the persistence of inflation above the Bank of Ghana’s target range necessitates a deeper understanding of the underlying causes and transmission mechanisms.

This research investigates the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ghana based on the study’s detailed analysis of various factors together with Ghana’s economic environment. This research evaluates how inflation influences GDP performance with the goal of offering valuable guidance to monetary policymakers to establish sustainable pricing and continuous economic growth strategies for Ghana.

METHODOLOGY

Research design

A time series data analysis through quantitative research represents an appropriate method to study inflation’s effect on economic growth in Ghana. This research approach enables the analysis of how different variables connect to each other during multivariate observations. The analysis of dynamic variables relationships depends on a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model structure which investigates inflation together with GDP growth and different macroeconomic indicators like government expenditure along with physical capital and money supply (Ahiakpor & Akapare, 2022). A VAR model works as an effective analytical method because it identifies interdependent variables without needing prior assumptions regarding their causal relations. The analysis requires this method because inflation and economic growth relationships remain unclear regarding causal directions (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 2001). The VAR model reveals complete short and long-term inflation effects on economic growth while displaying the economic back-and-forth patterns between these variables. The research design stands justified because it delivers extensive and detailed knowledge about inflation-economic growth patterns within Ghana’s economy (Toda and Yamomanto, 2015).

Data Source

Multiple highly recognized institutions supply the analysis data including World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank together with Bank of Ghana (BoG) and Ghana Statistical Service (GSS). The organizations maintain outstanding data accuracy combined with dedication to transparency and reliability standards throughout their macroeconomic data services (World Bank, 2023). The dataset consists of major economic indicators together with GDP growth statistics and inflation data along with exchange rate data and interest rate data and other vital macroeconomic characteristics which serve to evaluate economic patterns and policy effects in Ghana (Ahiakpor & Akapare, 2022; Enu et al., 2023).

The World Development Indicators database and the Bank of Ghana financial data collection are utilized because both sources possess exceptional methodological rigor and academic and policy recognition (Gujarati, 2003; Asteriou and Hall, 2015). Won by researchers across the globe for its international economic statistics standards the World Development Indicators (WDI) database functions as a core source for scientific investigations and governmental decision-making processes (World Bank, n.d.). The Bank of Ghana (BoG) operates as the national central bank to share immediate and historic financial information that emphasizes monetary policies together with exchange rates and price change records (Nuhuman, 2017; Trading Economics, 2025). The Ghana Statistical Service functions as the chief government statistical organization which maintains a system for collecting and validating economic data across the nation (Frimpong & Oteng-Abayie, 2010; Kankpeyeng, Mahama, & Abubakar, 2021). Multiple institutions follow sound data collection and processing and validation methods which assure repeated precision and dependable results throughout various financial periods (Pesaran, Shin, & Smith, 2001; Lütkepohl, 2015).

The selection of these data sources has widespread backing from economic literature because they remain vital for macroeconomic research. The link between inflation and economic growth requires reliable standardized data which multiple studies by Fischer (2023) along with Bruno & Easterly (2018) emphasize. The analysis of macroeconomic factors in economic growth benefiting from database resources at these institutions has contributed to their importance for empirical investigation (Mishkin, 2019, Levine, 2019).

Data Collection Procedures

Key macroeconomic indicators obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank and Bank of Ghana (BoG) (World Bank, 2023; World Bank, n.d.) were accessed from their reputable online databases. The WDI database of the World Bank serves as a globally accepted resource to provide complete economic statistics about Ghana which are internationally standardised. The annual economic statistics including GDP growth rates, inflation trends, and other performance indicators appear in this database that maintains both consistency and reliable research standards (Ahiakpor & Akapare, 2012a; Barro, 1996). Additional financial and monetary policy information was obtained from the Bank of Ghana specifically for exchange rates and monetary policy rates as well as other economic indicators according to Mishkin (2007) and Nuhuman (2017). Added data sources from the Bank of Ghana delivered detailed observations about monetary management and financial security in Ghana as described in the works of Friedman (1968) and Sargent (1982). The analysis spans a 40-year period starting in 1983 and proceeding to 2023 so it can rigorously examine enduring economic patterns alongside policy effects according to Bruno & Easterly (1998) as well as Fischer (1993) and Levine (1997).

Data Analysis

The analysis of inflation’s effects on economic expansion throughout Ghana made use of World Development Indicators database data spanning 1983 to 2023 (World Bank, n.d.; World Bank, 2023). The research evaluated GDP together with inflation rates plus physical capital and government expenditure and money supply as essential analytical variables. The variables’ execution was established through descriptive statistics according to the guidelines presented in Gujarati (2003) and Asteriou & Hall (2015). VAR models were used to study how the relevant variables interacted with each other (Lütkepohl 2005). This research assessed the connection between inflation rates and economic performance indicators of GDP, investment, and employment in Ghana based on work from Frimpong & Oteng-Abayie (2010), Ahiakpor & Akapare (2012a), and Antwi et al. (2013).

This research investigates the relationship between inflation rates and economic growth through regression analysis while utilizing Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FM-OLS) regression analysis as per Pesaran et al. (2001) and Hasanov (2011). To examine whether inflation caused changes in economic growth Toda-Yamomanto and Dickey-Fuller tests were conducted (Toda & Yamomanto, 1995; Dickey & Fuller, 1979). This research used tests for autocorrelation, multicollinearity, normality, and heteroscedasticity reported by Barro (1995) and Fischer (1993) to verify the solidity of the analysis results. The data analysis was conducted using SPSS or STATA statistical software packages according to Mishkin (2007), Nuhuman (2017).

ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSIONS

Dickey–Fuller Test for Unit Root

Number of obs = 40

Number of lags = 0

H0: Random walk without drift, d = 0

Variable: GDP

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.9582.

Variable: InflationGDPde~l

H0: Random walk without drift, d = 0

Number of obs = 40

Number of lags =  0

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.0000.

Variable: BroadmoneyofGDP~l

H0: Random walk without drift, d = 0

Number of obs = 40

Number of lags = 0

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.3495.

Economists along with policymakers continue to analyse the relationship between inflation rates and economic growth in Ghana based on research findings by Ahiakpor & Akapare (2012) and Enu et al. (2013). This analysis studies the connection between inflation and economic growth in Ghana both historically and through empirical studies to understand the inflation process and its economic consequences.

The test from Dickey-Fuller operates to demonstrate significant information about the stationary properties of examined variables. Results from the GDP per capita test yield a test statistic of -0.005 which has an associated MacKinnon approximate p-value of 0.9582. According to the Dickey-Fuller test statistics, GDP per capita fails to refute the unit root hypothesis which indicates non-stationarity of this variable (Dickey & Fuller, 1979). The inflation measurement through GDP deflator generates a test statistic value of -8.140 while presenting a p-value of 0.0000. The test results strongly demonstrate that inflation displays stationary properties as per Nuhuman (2017). The results reveal that the broad money supply as percentage of GDP shows non-stationarity because its test statistic -1.863 along with its p-value of 0.3495 fails to reject the null hypothesis.

Time series properties of the analysed variables produce conflicting results based on the study results. Time-dependent trends exist in GDP per capita and broad money supply because these variables show non-stationary properties according to Gujarati (2003). The selection of appropriate econometric methods for future analysis requires this initial observation since using non-stationary variables in regressions leads to incorrect conclusions (Asteriou & Hall, 2015). The evaluation requires further examination and may require differencing non-stationary variables and cointegration testing to effectively analyze relationships between variables and prove solid conclusions about inflation’s effects on Ghanaian economic growth.

Descriptive Statistics

summarize GDP percapita current US Inflation GDP deflator annual Broad money of GDP

A review of descriptive data reveals the historical developments of economic growth as well as inflation rates and monetary expansion within Ghana. Research studies which examine inflation-growth patterns in developing nations support the obtained results.

Over the years the economy demonstrated substantial variation because GDP per capita averaged $981.52 yet showed a standard deviation of $783.21. Ghana’s economic behavior throughout time is reflected through minimum GDP per capita of $253.75 and maximum GDP per capita of $2,445.50. World economic development involves fluctuating growth rates caused by unstable macroeconomic factors and changes in national policies according to Barro (1996).

The GDP deflator demonstrates inflation rates with a mean of 27.39% and a high standard deviation of 21.08% which indicates extensive price changes. The figure indicates hyperinflation given the minimum inflation rate stands at 8.48% and the maximum reaches 123.06%. High inflation rates according to Fischer (1993) disrupt economic growth since they cause investors and consumers to become uncertain about their actions. Bruno and Easterly (1998) and others research have revealed that inflation levels below excessive rates will not significantly constrain prospective economic expansion.

Broad money compared to GDP shows an average level of 24.05% with a volatility rate of 6.59% that represents monetary policy modifications in Ghana throughout the years. Financial sector development shows fluctuations based on the observed minimum value of 11.30% to maximum value of 34.11%. Economic growth relates to financial deepening according to Levine and Zervos (1998). The proposition of Friedman (1968) states that rapid growth of money supply produces inflationary pressures.

The extreme changes in inflation rates as well as their impact on GDP demand that the institutions responsible for monetary matters alongside fiscal management implement cautious practices to maintain a stable economy and establish enduring growth.

Vector Auto Regression (VAR)

. var GDPpercapitacurrentUS InflationGDPdeflatorannual BroadmoneyofGDP

Vector autoregression

Sample: 1985 thru 2023                                                                                  Number of obs =       39

Log likelihood =  -477.3699                                                                           AIC         = 25.55743

FPE            =   2.55e+07                                                                                 HQIC     =   25.87882

Det(Sigma_ml)  =    8596601                                                                         SBIC      =    26.4532

Review of inflation effects on economic expansion continues as a principal research area in economic science. A Vector Autoregression (VAR) model analyzes historic and empirical evidence between inflation and economic growth in Ghana through data analysis between 1985 and 2023. The study uses GDP per capita (current USD), inflation (GDP deflator, annual %) and broad money supply (as a percentage of GDP) as analysis components. The method assessed both variable relationships throughout time while holding evidence that analyzes inflation effects on Ghana’s economic output.

Model Fit and Diagnostic Indicators

The VAR estimation spanned 39 periods between 1985 until 2023. A test log-likelihood value of -477.3699 indicates moderate model stability together with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC), and Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion (HQIC) which serve as indicators for identifying the best lag length (Lütkepohl, 2005). The estimated model demonstrates robust predictive power for GDP per capita variations (0.9573) and broad money supply fluctuations (0.8146) however it fails to explain inflation dynamics effectively (0.1429) thus implying weak predictive capacity of inflation given previous variable values.

Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth

Research findings indicate that inflation does not create statistically relevant changes to GDP per capita levels. Statistical findings demonstrate that inflation affects GDP per capita through the coefficients -3.8979 at L1 and 0.2153 at L2 with p-values of 0.183 and 0.879. The data indicates that inflation fails to produce significant impacts on economic development levels when tested against conventional statistical thresholds. The findings reject established economic hypothesis that predicts inflation would strongly hinder economic expansion (Fischer, 1993; Barro, 1995).

Different research has revealed through Bruno and Easterly (1998) that inflation restricts long-term economic growth only when exceeding specific thresholds. Results from this study imply that Ghana’s inflation trends remain below critical levels or that other economic policies helped reduce inflation’s negative impact.

Broad Money Supply and Its Influence on Growth

The first period lagged values of broad money supply (L1) and L2 both contribute to GDP per capita according to the study results where L1 has -11.0188 with a p-value of 0.511 while L2 shows 20.8401 and a p-value of 0.208. The obtained findings demonstrate that modifications in money supply levels do not produce notable impacts on GDP per capita measurements. Levine (1997) along with parallel research establishes that how money supply impacts the economy depends on the capabilities of financial institutions to direct funds into productive investments.

The weak association between monetary supply and GDP per capita indicates that Ghana’s financial sector needs to improve its capability to carry monetary policy exertion into actual economic output according to Mishkin’s (2007) insights.

Inflationary Dynamics and Its Persistence

The model indicates that inflation responds minimally to both its previous values and other variables included in this analysis. The inflation variable shows moderate relationships with its previous periods through L1 and L2 coefficients where L1 has 0.0570 (p = 0.816) while L2 has -0.1142 (p = 0.336). The study indicates that inflation in Ghana shows no significant long-term trends. Results from high-inflation economies contradict the findings because inflation maintains itself (Sargent, 1982).

Average GDP measures per person does not show any relationship to overall inflation rates (L1: -0.0128, p = 0.421; L2: 0.0055, p = 0.733). This indicates that economic growth by itself fails to determine main inflationary patterns. The study findings agree with Fischer (1993) although they run counter to classic economic theories which state that higher growth leads to reduced inflation because it expands production capabilities (Solow, 1956).

Relationship Between Broad Money Supply and Inflation

Statistical analysis proves that broad money supply has minimal effect on inflation rates (L1: 0.1109, p = 0.937; L2: 0.0910, p = 0.948). Evidence shows money supply plays an insignificant role in generating inflation pressure throughout Ghana. According to traditional monetary concepts particularly the Quantity Theory of Money (Friedman, 1968) money supply increases cause inflationary effects. This research finding about weak relationship strength matches with economic studies that establish these relationships get muted due to monetary policy effectiveness and financial development (Mishkin, 2007).

Money Supply and Its Own Dynamics

According to statistical analysis the broad money supply demonstrates a notable degree of self-forecasting behavior. The research reveals a statistically significant persistence across time because L1 relates to broad money supply by 1.0466 (p = 0.000). Ghana maintains a steady pattern of monetary expansion which may result from both economic conditions and central bank regulations and policies.

Policy Implications

The reported results produce essential implications which guide policy decisions. Research indicates that slow inflation rates in Ghana do not substantially hurt economic expansion thus indicating that inflation control should not emerge as a top priority for policymakers. An assessment of the impact should occur when inflation levels become substantial.

1. Economic growth together with inflation show limited responsiveness to monetary policy interventions which calls for financial sector structural transformations in Ghana.

2. The government should implement fiscal policies and boost investment in high-productivity areas because monetary expansion alone fails to promote economic growth effectively.

CONCLUSION

Based on the analysis of time-series data from 1985 to 2023, this study suggests that inflation does not have a statistically significant impact on economic growth in Ghana. The Vector Autoregression (VAR) model revealed that neither lagged inflation nor broad money supply significantly influenced GDP per capita, challenging economic theories that posit a strong negative relationship between inflation and economic growth (Barro, 1995; Fischer, 1993). These findings indicate that Ghana’s inflationary trends may not have reached critical levels, or that other macroeconomic factors have mitigated the adverse effects (Bruno & Easterly, 1998). The limited effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing both inflation and economic growth underscores the need for structural reforms in Ghana’s financial sector (Mishkin, 2007). Policymakers should focus on fiscal policies and productivity-enhancing sectors to stimulate growth, rather than relying solely on monetary expansion. These results align with studies that emphasize the complex nature of inflation-growth dynamics and the importance of country-specific factors in shaping economic outcomes (Bruno & Easterly, 1998; Fischer, 1993). Further research could explore threshold effects and sectoral differences to better understand the long-term impact of inflation on Ghana’s economic growth.

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