Socio-Economic and Livelihood Impacts of the Padma Multipurpose Bridge on Displaced Communities in Bangladesh

Socio-Economic and Livelihood Impacts of the Padma Multipurpose Bridge on Displaced Communities in Bangladesh

S.M. Husain^1*, S.T. Husain²

1Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Associate Professor, State University of Bangladesh (SUB)

²Department of Economics and Political Science, Faculty of Social Science, SIM Singapore

^*Corresponding Author

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.90300190

Received: 20 February 2025; Accepted: 24 February 2025; Published: 06 April 2025

ABSTRACT

The Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project (PMBP), one of Bangladesh’s largest infrastructural initiatives, aims to enhance socio-economic growth for over 30 million residents. This study assesses the socio-economic, demographic, and psychological impacts of the project on displaced populations. A purposive sampling method was employed to select representative households from the affected population. Data were collected from a sample of households in affected areas, using a mixed-method approach along with sentiment analysis of media data to capture public opinion. The findings revealed that settlement households had an average income of Tk. 23,493, while non-settlement households earned Tk. 24,054. Education access was high, with 98% of households having nearby schools, but the dropout rate, particularly among girls in secondary school, was concerning. Households experienced a 69% loss in fish cultivation and a 51% loss of cultivable land due to displacement. The Padma Bridge brought economic opportunities still there were administrative challenges with inadequate compensation. While the bridge caused environmental damages due to destruction of home and infrastructure, some households where benefitted with modern facilities and better public services like roads and improved health care. This research highlights the need for improved service delivery and long-term support for displaced populations. Recommendations include the development of alternative livelihood opportunities, enhanced healthcare access, and addressing gaps in compensation to improve community resilience.

Keywords: Padma Bridge, Socio-Economic Impact, Livelihoods, Infrastructure Development, Employment, Displacement, Trade Growth, Regional Connectivity, Education Access, Healthcare Access

INTRODUCTION

Background

The Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project (PMBP) is one of the most significant infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, designed to enhance connectivity, economic integration, and regional development. This mega-infrastructure is expected to impact over 30 million people, particularly in the southern region of Bangladesh, by improving trade, transportation, and access to essential services. Yet, these large-scale projects also bring significant socio-economic, demographic, and environmental challenges—especially for displaced communities who must adapt to forced relocation and disrupted livelihoods

Problem Statement

While infrastructure development is widely regarded as a catalyst for economic growth, the negative externalities on displaced populations and socio-economic inequalities remain underexplored. Existing studies have largely focused on the macroeconomic benefits of the Padma Bridge, such as increased trade and transportation efficiency. However, there is limited research on the localized impacts on displaced households, particularly concerning income shifts, employment opportunities, compensation effectiveness, and psychological well-being. This study aims to bridge this gap by providing empirical evidence on the socio-economic consequences of the PMBP for affected populations.

Research Objectives

This study seeks to:

• Assess the socio-economic changes experienced by displaced communities due to the PMBP.
• Investigate demographic shifts, including migration patterns and changes in family structures.
• Evaluate the effectiveness of compensation policies and their impact on displaced individuals.
• Analyze public sentiment regarding the bridge project using sentiment analysis of media sources.
• Provide policy recommendations to mitigate negative impacts and ensure sustainable development.

Research Questions

To achieve these objectives, this study addresses the following research questions:

1. What are the key socio-economic impacts of the PMBP on displaced communities?
2. How has employment, income, and business activity changed due to the bridge project?
3. What challenges do displaced populations face regarding compensation, resettlement, and adaptation?
4. How does sentiment analysis of media and social discourse reflect public opinion on the PMBP?
5. What policy interventions can be recommended to minimize displacement-related hardships?

Justification of the Study

This research is crucial as it provides an in-depth understanding of the human consequences of large-scale infrastructure development. While many economic studies highlight the benefits of the Padma Bridge in terms of national growth, this study focuses on community-level effects, ensuring that the voices of displaced populations are heard. By incorporating sentiment analysis, this research also captures broader societal perceptions, providing a holistic evaluation of the project’s success and challenges.

Conceptual Framework

The study is guided by socio-economic impact theory and displacement theory, which emphasize the ripple effects of large-scale development projects on local communities. The conceptual framework integrates three key dimensions:

1. Economic Impact – Changes in employment, trade, and financial stability.
2. Social and Demographic Changes – Migration patterns, education access, and healthcare services.
3. Psychological and Sentiment Analysis – Public perception and adaptation of displaced individuals.

This structured approach ensures that findings are comprehensive and policy-relevant, contributing to both academic discourse and practical policymaking.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Several studies have examined the economic benefits of the Padma Bridge, highlighting improvements in trade, transportation, and employment opportunities (Rahman et al., 2020). According to The Business Standard (2023), the majority of industrialists and investors are considering relocating their operations to the southern parts of Bangladesh due to improved connectivity, potentially creating labor opportunities and safeguarding livelihoods. Furthermore, The Financial Express (2021) highlights the bridge’s role in reducing travel time, enhancing trade, and contributing to regional GDP growth.

Access to education and healthcare has also been linked to improved transportation infrastructure. Zhou et al. (2019) found that enhanced transport networks help reduce educational disparities, while Kc (2007) observed that rural communities with limited access to transportation had lower school enrollment rates. Similarly, healthcare access is affected by transportation infrastructure, with studies in China (Chen et al., 2023) and Korea (Choi et al., 2019) showing that mobility constraints significantly impact healthcare accessibility.

A statistical model by Shoulin et al. (2024) found that 48% of respondents agreed on improved employment and education opportunities due to the Padma Bridge, with 54% mentioning greater agricultural trade. However, concerns about increased accidents and farmland conversion were also reported, indicating both positive and negative livelihood impacts.

METHODOLOGY

Research Design

This study employs a mixed-methods approach, integrating qualitative case study analysis with quantitative sentiment analysis to comprehensively assess the socio-economic impacts of the Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project (PMBP). This methodological choice allows for a deeper understanding of both objective economic indicators and subjective public perceptions, ensuring a well-rounded evaluation.

A case study approach was selected due to its ability to provide detailed insights into the experiences of displaced populations, policymakers, and stakeholders affected by the project. Additionally, sentiment analysis of media sources and social media discussions was incorporated to gauge broader public opinion regarding the bridge’s long-term socio-economic consequences.

Data Collection Methods

The study integrates three primary data sources:

Semi-structured Interviews

• Conducted with 100 displaced households, 50 non-displaced households, government officials, and infrastructure experts.
• Topics covered included income variations, employment trends, educational access, compensation policies, and overall quality of life changes.
• Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and thematically coded for analysis.

Sentiment Analysis

• Public perception was analyzed using social media posts, news articles, and policy papers.
• A total of 5,000 online discussions were collected from platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and newspaper websites.
• Sentiment polarity (positive, neutral, or negative) was determined using natural language processing (NLP) techniques, specifically VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner) and TextBlob.

Relative Importance Index (RII)

• Used to quantify stakeholder rankings of key socio-economic impacts.
• Respondents rated impacts on a 5-point Likert scale, where:

• 1 = Least important
• 5 = Most important

• The RII was calculated using the formula: Where:

• W = weight assigned to each response (1-5)
• X = frequency of responses
• N = total number of respondents

• The RII scores were used to rank impacts such as income changes, employment growth, agricultural trade loss, and land displacement concerns.

Sampling Strategy

A purposive sampling technique was used to select representative households from both displaced and non-displaced communities to ensure comparative analysis. The sample included:

• 100 households from communities that were relocated due to the bridge construction.
• 50 non-affected households from similar socio-economic backgrounds to serve as a control group.
• Government officials, policymakers, and infrastructure experts were included to provide a policy-level perspective on compensation, relocation support, and economic development strategies.

Data Analysis

Qualitative Analysis

• Interviews were coded using NVivo software for thematic analysis.
• Emerging themes were categorized under economic impacts, displacement concerns, access to public services, and psychological effects.

Quantitative Analysis

• Descriptive statistics were used to analyze income variations, employment trends, and trade shifts.
• Sentiment analysis results were visualized through polarity distributions, identifying trends in public opinion over time.
• RII rankings provided insights into the most critical socio-economic factors affecting displaced communities.

Reliability and Validity Considerations

• Data Triangulation: Cross-validation was conducted by comparing interview responses with sentiment analysis and secondary reports from government agencies.
• Inter-coder Agreement: Thematic coding for qualitative analysis was verified with two independent researchers, achieving an agreement rate of 85%.
• Sentiment Validation: Manually annotated sentiment samples (10%) were compared with NLP-based classification to ensure accuracy above 90%.

Ethical Considerations

• Informed Consent: Prior to participation, all interviewees were provided with an informed consent document outlining the study’s objectives, risks, and confidentiality measures.
• Anonymity: Participant identities were anonymized in all reports to ensure privacy.
• Data Protection: All research data were stored in an encrypted database, accessible only to authorized researchers.

By employing a comprehensive methodological framework, this study ensures that the socio-economic and psychological impacts of the PMBP are rigorously assessed, balancing quantitative indicators with qualitative insights. The findings aim to inform policy interventions for sustainable infrastructure development and equitable compensation strategies.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Socio-Economic Impacts

• Employment and Income: Post-construction, affected communities experienced enhanced job opportunities, with connectivity playing a pivotal role in regional employment growth (Institute of Social Welfare and Research, 2020). Employment in affected areas increased by 15% post-construction, compared to a 5% rise in non-affected areas. Average household income in directly affected communities rose by 20% within two years of the project’s completion (Haider, 2021).

To further illustrate the economic transformation, the following bar chart compares key economic indicators before and after the bridge’s construction. The chart highlights the percentage increase in employment growth, income, business expansion, and agricultural  trade.

Figure 1: Comparison of Economic Indicators Pre- and Post-Padma Bridge

(Source: Institute of Social Welfare and Research, 2020; DU Paper Analysis)

From the figure, it is evident that:

• Employment growth increased by 10% in affected areas post-bridge construction.
• Household income saw a 20% rise, improving financial security.
• Business expansion jumped to 30%, as businesses leveraged better connectivity.
• Agricultural trade rose by 17%, opening new market opportunities.

These findings confirm that the Padma Bridge has acted as a catalyst for economic development, creating job opportunities and enhancing trade. However, despite these positive outcomes, displaced communities still face challenges related to land conversion, compensation delays, and rising living costs.

• Business and Trade: The bridge has encouraged industrial growth and trade expansion, with many businesses considering relocation to take advantage of better connectivity (The Business Standard, 2023). Small enterprises reported an average revenue increase of 18%.

Employment and Income Changes

Post-construction, affected communities experienced enhanced job opportunities, with improved connectivity playing a pivotal role in regional employment growth. Employment in affected areas increased by 15% post-construction, compared to a 5% rise in non-affected areas. Average household income in directly affected communities saw a 20% increase within two years of the bridge’s completion. These findings highlight the positive economic transformation facilitated by the bridge.

Business and Trade Expansion

The bridge has fostered industrial growth and trade expansion, attracting businesses to previously underdeveloped regions. Small enterprises in affected areas reported an 18% increase in revenue, driven by improved market access. This development aligns with previous research on how infrastructure investment can stimulate economic activity in emerging markets.

Agricultural and Land Use Impact

Despite economic benefits, displacement resulted in a 51% reduction in cultivable land and a 69% decline in fish cultivation among affected households. Farmers and fishers faced challenges adapting to new economic conditions, highlighting the need for structured livelihood rehabilitation programs.

Demographic Changes

Migration Patterns

Many displaced individuals migrated to urban centers, leading to an increase in rural-to-urban demographic shifts. This phenomenon has affected community structures, social cohesion, and access to resources for displaced populations.

Education and Healthcare Access

While 98% of households now have improved school access due to better transportation, dropout rates among secondary school girls remain high due to economic instability. Similarly, healthcare access has improved for 74% of surveyed households, but affordability remains a concern, particularly for low-income families.

Community Perceptions and Sentiment Analysis

A sentiment analysis of 5,000 online discussions found that 70% of public sentiment was positive, highlighting economic benefits, improved mobility, and regional development. However, 30% expressed concerns over inadequate compensation, loss of agricultural land, and rising living costs, emphasizing the need for targeted social policies.

Comparative Analysis

Affected vs. Non-Affected Communities

Directly affected communities reported more pronounced economic gains but also faced greater socio-economic disruptions compared to non-displaced populations.

Historical Perspective

This study builds on past research from the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) and the Eco-Social Development Organization (ESDO), confirming long-term infrastructure-led transformations while emphasizing the importance of sustainable displacement policies.

Policy Implications and Recommendations

• Develop Alternative Livelihood Strategies – Implement vocational training programs for displaced populations to facilitate economic adaptation.
• Enhance Compensation Mechanisms – Ensure transparent and timely compensation for affected households.
• Strengthen Community Support Systems – Expand access to affordable healthcare and education for displaced families.
• Monitor Long-Term Economic Effects – Establish longitudinal studies to track post-construction socio-economic trends.

By integrating empirical findings with sentiment analysis and historical comparisons, this study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the Padma Bridge’s impact and offers actionable policy recommendations to mitigate displacement challenges and enhance sustainable development outcomes.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Summary of Findings

The Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project has had a significant socio-economic impact, improving regional employment, trade, and infrastructure. However, displaced populations have experienced challenges in compensation, relocation, and livelihood adaptation. The findings indicate that while economic growth has been stimulated, it has not been equally distributed among affected communities.

Policy Recommendations

• Strengthen Compensation Policies – Implement transparent and timely compensation mechanisms to address the financial challenges of displaced households.
• Promote Alternative Livelihood Programs – Introduce vocational training and employment support to facilitate economic adaptation.
• Enhance Public Services –Improve access to healthcare and education in affected areas to mitigate socio-economic disruptions.
• Long-Term Monitoring – Establish follow-up studies to assess the evolving impacts of the bridge and ensure sustainable policy interventions.

Future Research Directions

Future studies should examine the long-term economic and social effects of the bridge, with a focus on gender disparities and multi-generational impacts. Additionally, comparative studies with other mega-projects can provide insights into best practices for managing large-scale infrastructure developments.

Closing Thoughts

The Padma Multipurpose Bridge stands as a landmark infrastructure project, exemplifying the potential of large-scale development in fostering economic growth and regional connectivity. However, the success of such projects should not only be measured by their economic contributions but also by their ability to ensure social equity and inclusive development. Addressing displacement challenges, implementing sustainable compensation mechanisms, and fostering long-term socio-economic resilience will be critical for maximizing the project’s overall impact. By learning from the successes and challenges of the PMBP, policymakers and researchers can develop more effective strategies for balancing development goals with the well-being of affected communities.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I like to express my sincere gratitude to my daughter Syeda Tahiya Husain (Co-Author S. T. Husain² , Department of Economics and Political Science, Faculty of Social Science, SIM Singapore) for her contribution in this work and for her expertise in social science to enhance the quality of this manuscript. Additionally, I also extend my sincere appreciation to Saki Naher (Department of English, Faculty of Arts, Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh) for her dedicated administrative assistance as a Research Assistant.

Author Contribution

The authors hereby confirm their contribution in the paper by conceptualizing the research, proposing the methodology, collecting and analyzing the data, and drafting this manuscript.

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