The Impact of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment on Nigeria’s Economic Growth in the Context of Strategic Management

The Impact of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment on Nigeria’s Economic Growth in the Context of Strategic Management

¹Madu Blessing Chinomso., ²Dhakir Abbas Ali., ³Rasak Bamidele

^1,2Faculty of Business Management, Lincoln University College (LUC), Wisma Lincoln, Ehsan, Malaysia

³Department of Sociology, Criminology and Security Studies, Thomas Adewumi University, Oko, Kwara State, Nigeria

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.909000572

Received: 04 September 2025; Accepted: 11 September 2025; Published: 18 October 2025

ABSTRACT

This study examined trade and investment patterns and their impact on Nigeria’s economic growth in comparison to China. Using a variety of methods, it integrated thematic analysis of interview transcripts with quantitative analysis of trade and investment data. Due to its strategic interest in Nigeria’s natural resources, particularly its oil and minerals, China has made significant infrastructural investments to support the nation’s development. It focused on the results. China is now Nigeria’s biggest trading partner; between 2000 and 2020, trade volumes grew from $2 billion to $20 billion. The substantial increase in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in the manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure sectors, enhanced Nigeria’s GDP.  Regression analysis revealed a strong correlation between GDP growth and Chinese FDI, with GDP rising 0.75 percentage points for every billion USD in FDI. The study addressed a number of issues, including the sustainability of debt resulting from Chinese loans, the dominance of Chinese companies in significant industries, and the negative consequences of trade imbalances on Nigeria’s economic growth. The findings show that Nigeria needs to carefully manage its economic ties with China in order to preserve its financial stability and boost the competitiveness of its domestic industry.

Keywords: Trade Imbalance, Foreign Direct Investment, Infrastructure Development, Nigeria-China Relations, Economic Partnerships

INTRODUCTION

Over the past few decades, Nigeria and China’s relationship has undergone significant change, evolving from close political ties in the 1970s to a broad economic and strategic partnership. Formal diplomatic ties were established on February 10, 1971, on the basis of mutual non-alignment and common objectives for political sovereignty and economic development (Ogunsanwo, 2008). China’s recognition of Nigeria’s positions and Nigeria’s support for China in international fora demonstrate that the relationship was initially largely symbolic and marked by political solidarity (Ogunsanwo, 2008). Only minor aid and technical cooperation constituted the majority of economic exchanges at this time.

Nigeria sought to diversify its economic partnerships in the face of domestic challenges, and China sought global economic expansion following Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, making the 1990s a crucial decade (Owoeye, 2014). This convergence improved trade relations by making China appear to Nigeria as a reliable partner for investment and infrastructure. In the context of energy poverty, insecurity, and unequal access to modern energy, Balogun and Dhakir (2024) note that Nigeria’s energy resources played a pivotal role in determining economic development from 1980 to 2022.

The relationship between China and Nigeria is in three stages. The first spanned the 1970s through the early 1990s and was centred on political and ideological solidarity (Ogunsanwo, 2008). The second phase, which lasted from the middle of the 1990s to the beginning of the 2000s, saw an increase in economic cooperation. The founding of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2000 was one significant event that occurred during this period.

As a result, trade and investment became more formal, particularly in the fields of gas, oil, telecommunications, and infrastructure (Alden & Alves, 2008). A comprehensive strategic partnership was a defining feature of the third phase, which began in the mid-2000s. Large-scale infrastructure projects like power plants, railroads, and roads were being financed by China, usually through loans and Chinese businesses (Nwoke, 2011). The arrival of Chinese SMEs further increased employment and local economic activity.

Despite these benefits, problems with trade imbalances, debt sustainability, and the long-term developmental impact of Chinese projects still exist (Igbinoba, 2020). Despite relying on Chinese investment to boost growth, Nigeria continues to face structural challenges. Chinese consumer research, which emphasises the importance of trust in bilateral interactions by influencing purchase intentions, shows that trust simultaneously becomes a critical component of economic collaboration (Liu & Ali, 2024).

To assess these dynamics, theoretical viewpoints on trade balance provide insightful information. These include the Standard Theory of International Trade, the Keynesian Absorption Approach, the Elasticity Approach, and the Monetary Approach. The J-Curve hypothesis has had the greatest influence among them in terms of explaining short-term trade imbalances following exchange rate adjustments. Political alignment has generally given way to a complex partnership built on trade, investment, and strategic cooperation between China and Nigeria. This relationship is still essential to China’s engagement in Africa and Nigeria’s economic growth, despite persistent challenges.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

The literature review examined previous studies on China-Nigeria economic relations, emphasising the impact of these alliances on development. Using theories of development and dependency, the theoretical framework investigated the unequal nature of these connections. It highlighted how economic dependencies affect Nigeria’s growth pathways and developmental opportunities within the global economic system.

Historical Overview of Nigeria-China Economic Relations

China and Nigeria formally established diplomatic ties in 1971. Deeper economic ties in the following years were made possible by the steady increase in trade volumes in the 1980s and 1990s. In the 1970s, the main commodities traded between Nigeria and China were textiles, light machinery, and agricultural products. Nigeria sought to broaden its trading connections beyond conventional Western economies, while China sought to increase its influence in Africa (Akinola, 2018).

Initial Conversations and Trades

Most early commercial exchanges between Nigeria and China were based on mutual benefits. Nigeria was regarded as an attractive trading partner by China, which was rapidly industrialising and had a rising demand for energy supplies due to its wealth of natural resources, especially oil. Conversely, China provided Nigeria with access to inexpensive consumer goods, infrastructure development expertise, and technical assistance in various areas. During this period, several bilateral trade agreements were signed, laying the groundwork for further economic cooperation (Udeala, 2010).

Significant Turning Points in Bilateral Economic Relations

Nigeria and China’s economic ties underwent substantial changes at the start of the new millennium. With the creation of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2000, China’s engagement with Nigeria was formalised, and investment flows increased. Chinese businesses were crucial to Nigeria’s infrastructure development, particularly in the fields of rail, power, and roads. The Lagos–Kano railway is a well-known example, having been constructed by Chinese companies with Chinese loans (Akinola, 2018). As Chinese state-owned enterprises made significant investments in oil production, refinement, and exploration, energy cooperation also significantly expanded, in addition to infrastructure.

The China National Offshore Oil Corporation’s (CNOOC) significant acquisition of stakes in Nigerian oil blocks underscored Nigeria’s strategic role in China’s energy security (Ogunkola et al., 2008). Furthermore, trade increased, with China emerging as Nigeria’s largest trading partner by 2010. Nigeria exported solid minerals, crude oil, and agricultural goods while importing electronics, machinery, and textiles from China. This exchange allowed Nigeria to diversify its economy and provided China with essential raw materials (Alden & Large, 2011). These noteworthy occurrences demonstrate how Nigeria-China ties have developed into a complex partnership built on infrastructure, trade, and energy.

Important Economic Partnership Areas

Trade Relations

Nigeria’s demand for Chinese-made goods and China’s need for Nigerian crude oil have led to a significant increase in trade between the two countries. Nigeria’s reliance on Chinese imports has resulted in a trade deficit, indicating that the trade relationship remains somewhat unbalanced (Ayoola, 2020). The disparity has spurred debates about Nigeria’s need to expand its export base and boost its domestic production capacity in order to lessen negative economic effects (Olaoye, 2019).

Infrastructure Development and Investment

Nigeria has seen large financial investments from China, mainly in the construction of infrastructure. Research indicates that China has financed and built significant infrastructure projects, such as highways, trains, and airports. China’s larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which intends to improve international trade routes, includes these investments (Adeola, 2017). Although these investments have improved Nigeria’s transport system and boosted its economy, questions have been raised about their long-term viability, especially in light of debt repayment and the possibility of a greater reliance on Chinese funding (Chukwuemeka, 2019).

Transfer of Technology and Knowledge

Technology and knowledge transfer are key elements of Nigeria-China economic cooperation. Chinese companies often bring innovative technologies and management strategies that increase local productivity, especially in sectors like telecommunications, where companies like Huawei and ZTE have significantly expanded (Nwosu, 2018; Eze, 2020; Akintoye, 2021; Onuoha, 2019). While partnerships and training programs have facilitated some skills transfer, others argue that Chinese companies routinely give preference to their citizens for technical positions, preventing Nigerian workers from gaining advanced skills (Ogundele, 2020; Afolabi, 2021).

Nigeria-China Economic Partnerships

Dynamics of Import and Export

China and Nigeria have a commercial relationship that includes the exchange of commodities and services. Nigeria’s main exports to China are agricultural products, solid minerals, and crude oil, while China imports a wide range of manufactured goods, such as textiles, electronics, machinery, and cars. These trade dynamics fit a pattern where raw materials are traded for completed goods in China’s dealings with other African countries.

Trade Balance and Its Effects on the Economy

The negative trade balance between Nigeria and China is advantageous to China. Economists and policymakers have talked about the imbalance’s long-term effects on Nigeria’s economy. On the one hand, the flood of reasonably priced Chinese goods that reduce costs and expand access to a greater variety of products benefits Nigerian consumers and businesses. However, the effect on domestic businesses, which find it difficult to compete with China’s lower-priced imports, has drawn criticism. This circumstance emphasises the necessity of laws that support homegrown production and lessen reliance on imports.

Major Chinese Investments in Nigeria

China’s bilateral economic ties with Nigeria are based on its investments in the mining, manufacturing, telecommunications, and oil and gas industries. The massive amounts of money that Chinese corporations have invested in Nigeria’s oil industry, especially in the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), demonstrate how vital Nigerian crude oil is to China’s energy security. Chinese companies have also set up production facilities in Nigeria, encouraging the transfer of technology and the creation of jobs.

China’s massive infrastructure projects have had a significant impact on Nigeria. Chinese businesses have built vital infrastructure in Nigeria, such as power plants, railroads, and highways, frequently with help from Chinese government funding. For example, the completion of the Abuja-Kaduna railway by the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) greatly improved transport and stimulated local economies. In parallel, Chinese companies have been instrumental in building power plants to alleviate Nigeria’s ongoing energy scarcity, which has boosted industrial development and raised living standards.

Impact on the economic development of Nigeria

This section uses a range of scholarly sources and empirical research to investigate how Nigeria’s relationship with China has affected its economic development. The report discusses the difficulties and complaints of this partnership as well as the consequences for Nigeria’s industrialisation, employment, and social development.

Growth of the Economy

Nigeria’s economic growth has been significantly influenced by its relationship with China; multiple studies have demonstrated how this bilateral cooperation has enhanced Nigeria’s GDP growth. Adeolu and Taiwo (2019), for example, showed that Nigeria’s GDP grew consistently, especially in the 2000s, and that this growth was linked to improved trade ties with China. China’s demand for natural resources, particularly Nigerian crude oil, had a significant impact on this economic trajectory. GDP growth was also facilitated by the flood of Chinese investments into Nigeria’s economy.

Chinese investment has benefited several industries, including industry, services, and agriculture. Chinese agricultural investments, such as financing for high-yield crop varieties and cutting-edge farming methods, have greatly increased Nigeria’s agricultural output (Nwosu 2018). Chinese businesses built a sizable number of production units and manufacturing facilities to produce high-value goods for both domestic and foreign markets (Onuoha, 2017). Ikenna (2020) added that Chinese capital and technology were driving the expansion of the services sector, especially in the retail and telecommunications sectors.

Industrialisation and Employment

The industrialisation and employment landscape have also been significantly impacted by the relationship between China and Nigeria. The contribution of Chinese investments to Nigeria’s industrial development has been emphasised by a number of academics. Chinese investments in Nigeria’s construction and manufacturing industries have produced a sizable number of jobs, claims Akinyemi (2017). In addition to opening offices in Nigeria, companies such as ZTE and Huawei also employed a significant number of Nigerians, which aided in talent transfer and capacity building.

Furthermore, Nigeria has benefited from China’s involvement in its industrialisation efforts through several joint ventures and infrastructure projects. Osagie (2016) claimed that the establishment of industrial parks and free trade zones, like the Lekki Free Trade Zone, was directly caused by Chinese collaboration and investment. Chinese investment has accelerated Nigeria’s industrialisation efforts since these regions have developed into centres of industrial activity that draw more foreign investment and support domestic entrepreneurship. 

Economic and Social Development

Nigeria’s socioeconomic development has benefited greatly from trade relations with China; the decrease in poverty is one notable result. Obafemi (2018) asserts that because Chinese investments in infrastructure projects-such as power plants, railroads, and highways-have reduced transportation costs and increased market accessibility, they have significantly reduced poverty. Local businesses have prospered as a result of these infrastructure upgrades, which have also improved the economy as a whole (Ademola, 2017).

The improvement of living conditions between Nigeria and China is another significant facet of their relationship. According to Okonkwo (2019), the availability of reasonably priced Chinese goods, such as electronics and household goods, has enhanced the standard of living for a large number of Nigerians. Nigerians’ health and educational outcomes have also improved as a result of Chinese-led healthcare and education initiatives, such as the building of schools and hospitals (Ajayi, 2018; Udeh, 2018).

Initiatives supported by the Chinese government have also had a significant positive impact on infrastructure development. Eze (2017) cited a number of power generation projects, the Lagos-Ibadan motorway, and the Abuja-Kaduna railway as instances of the transformative impact of these partnerships. In addition to enhancing connectivity and cutting down on travel times, these projects have boosted socioeconomic growth by generating jobs during the construction and operation stages (Adebayo, 2019).

Nigeria-China Economic Partnership Challenges

Trade Imbalance

China imports a lot of Nigerian-made goods, mostly raw materials, and Nigeria and China have a large trade imbalance. Nigeria faces strategic challenges as a result of this trade deficit. According to the report, Nigeria’s over-reliance on Chinese imports threatens the nation’s capacity to manufacture its own goods and impedes the expansion of domestic businesses. If this reliance erodes Nigeria’s resilience and economic independence, there may be strategic consequences.

According to Aluko (2019), local manufacturing sectors have declined as a result of the rise in low-cost Chinese goods, leading to job losses and unstable economic conditions. The fact that the majority of Nigeria’s exports to China are raw materials, mostly oil, which are impacted by changes in world prices, exacerbates this discrepancy. Onuoha (2021) expressed concerns that Nigeria’s lack of export base diversification could impede sustainable economic growth and prolong a cycle of underdevelopment.

Debt Dependency

Nigeria’s growing reliance on Chinese funding has also been a major concern. Concerns regarding Nigeria’s long-term stability are raised by the country’s growing debt to China. According to the Debt Management Office of Nigeria (2021), China is one of Nigeria’s largest bilateral creditors, with loans primarily used for infrastructure projects. These projects are expensive and may have an impact on future generations, despite the fact that they are essential for advancement.

The terms of these loans are frequently ambiguous, which raises questions about the true cost of borrowing, as noted by scholars such as Obi (2018). Eze (2020) highlighted the dangers of financial strain and cautioned that changes to interest rates and repayment schedules might make Nigeria’s financial problems worse. Long-term sustainability is at risk from “debt-trap diplomacy,” where high debt could result in the loss of control over vital assets. Nigeria’s autonomy in economic decision-making may be jeopardised if it defaults on its debt, claim Asongu and Ssozi (2021).

Social and Political Issues

A number of sociopolitical issues that impact local industries, public opinion, and political dynamics are also brought up by business exchanges between Nigeria and China. Since many of them find it difficult to compete with the flood of Chinese imports, the effects on domestic industries have been particularly noticeable. Adekoya (2017) asserts that local businesses in Nigeria have closed because they were unable to compete with Chinese manufacturers’ lower prices, resulting in the loss of many jobs for Nigerians.

People have differing opinions about China’s engagement in Nigeria; some see it as an important development partnership, while others see it as a new form of economic imperialism. Nigerians’ confidence in the advantages of Chinese foreign direct investment is waning, per a 2019 Afrobarometer survey. This mistrust stems from worries about Chinese labour laws, environmental standards, and the calibre of Chinese goods and services. Since there have occasionally been conflicts between Chinese businesses and residents, the political ramifications are also noteworthy. According to Ogunkola (2020), if these socio-political problems are not adequately addressed, they may result in increased instability.

Nigeria should take a more measured approach to dealing with China, according to studies. Nigeria ought to use its sizable market and wealth of natural resources to bargain for better conditions in trade and investment, claim Onyekwena and Ekeruche (2019). Nigeria could lessen some of the adverse sociopolitical effects by emphasising the development of local capacities and making sure Chinese investments complement national development objectives.

Possibilities for Improving Economic Relationships

Trade Diversification

Nigeria and China have historically mainly concentrated their trade relations on importing manufactured goods and exporting crude oil. Recent research, however, indicates that branching out into different sectors might be a possibility. Unrealised agricultural potential was highlighted by Egbula and Zheng (2011), particularly regarding Nigerian agricultural exports to China. Udeala (2010) also raised the possibility of increasing trade in services, specifically in the ICT (information and communication technology) sector, which has grown significantly in Nigeria.

Many scholars believe that China’s expanding middle class and its desire for a wide range of consumer goods could benefit Nigeria’s non-oil exports. The Chinese market offers enormous potential for goods like cocoa, leather goods, and sesame seeds, according to Onyekwena and Ekeruche (2019). Adewuyi and Oyejide (2012) further contended that Nigeria could capitalise on its comparative advantage in these areas by raising value addition and product standards.

Techniques for Balanced Trade Growth

To achieve balanced trade growth, both countries will need to take intentional action. According to Okeke (2012), Nigeria should develop comprehensive trade policies that attract Chinese investment and promote the export of goods other than oil. This plan would help close the trade deficit and encourage long-term economic growth. Osuji and Kalu (2015) have suggested bilateral trade agreements that emphasise technology transfer and capacity building. By establishing such agreements and obtaining access to Chinese manufacturing expertise, Nigeria could improve its industrial base and reduce its dependency on imports (Onuoha, 2017).

METHODOLOGY

The study adopted a mixed-methods approach to examine the economic ties between Nigeria and China through case studies, interviews, and secondary data analysis. Case studies enabled a comprehensive understanding of the complexities of bilateral relations, and semi-structured interviews with experts, decision-makers, and corporate executives yielded qualitative insights. Thematic analysis revealed significant patterns of collaboration. Quantitative analysis was conducted using trade volumes and economic indicators from international databases and government publications. Among the ethical standards upheld were confidentiality and informed consent. Reliability was increased, and potential biases in secondary data and interviews were decreased by triangulating different stakeholders and sources.

 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS

The study used a thorough case study methodology to investigate the complex economic ties and development implications between China and Nigeria. This approach enabled a thorough assessment of the economic cooperation between these two countries by combining qualitative and quantitative data to show both general trends and particular situations. Important stakeholders participated in semi-structured interviews for the qualitative component, and reliable secondary data sources were used for the quantitative component.

Trade Volume and Patterns

An in-depth understanding was provided by statistical analysis of trade volumes, investment flows, and other economic factors. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise the data, and regression analysis and other inferential statistics were used to look for any causal relationships between economic partnerships and development results.

Table 1: Nigeria-China Trade Volume (2015-2023)

Source: International Trade Centre (ITC) (2023).

Figure 1: Distribution of Trade Sectors in Nigeria-China Economic Relations (2023)

Source: United Nations Comtrade (2023)

The pie chart illustrates how Nigeria and China’s trade in various sectors was distributed in 2023. Infrastructure made up 40% of the total, with manufacturing coming in at 20%, oil and gas at 30%, and agriculture at 10%.

Figure 2: Graph showing Nigeria-China trade from 2015 to 2023

Source: United Nations Comtrade. (2023).

A graph showing Nigerian-Chinese trade between 2015 and 2023. Charts show imports and exports to China as well as the trade balance over these years. The trade imbalance persists despite an increase in imports and exports.

Investment Flows

The study also examined Chinese investment in Nigeria, with a focus on power plants, railway, and highway infrastructure projects. Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit, which had long impeded economic growth, has been reduced thanks to Chinese donations.

Table 2: Chinese Investments in Nigerian Infrastructure (2015-2023)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) (2023). Annual Trade Report

China’s annual investments in Nigerian infrastructure projects from 2015 to 2023 are displayed in the table above, along with a list of the major projects that have expanded Nigeria’s infrastructure capacity.

Chinese Investments and Nigerian GDP Growth

Regression analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between Chinese infrastructure investments and Nigeria’s GDP growth rate. However, there were concerns about the sustainability of the debt incurred from these investments, so a cautious approach to using Chinese financial inflows was required.

Table 3: Regression Analysis of Chinese Investments and Nigerian GDP Growth

According to regression analysis, for every billion USD increase in Chinese FDI, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate increased by 0.75 percentage points, assuming all other factors remained constant. However, an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio hurts GDP growth, underscoring the importance of careful debt management. A comprehensive understanding of the economic relations between China and Nigeria was provided by the findings of the qualitative and quantitative analyses. The qualitative results demonstrated that while China’s investments in Nigeria were driven by strategic natural resource interests, the urgent infrastructure needs of the nation were also satisfied. Nonetheless, the sustainability of debt and the predominance of Chinese companies in particular industries were recognised by stakeholders as the two main concerns.

The quantitative analysis, which showed a consistent increase in trade volumes and Chinese infrastructure investments in Nigeria, corroborated the findings. The positive correlation between Chinese investments and Nigeria’s GDP growth demonstrated the advantages of these economic ties for development. However, the negative impact of rising debt levels on GDP growth demonstrated the importance of prudent money management.

The overall results of the study showed how complicated the economic relations between China and Nigeria are. Although there were risks associated with debt sustainability and economic dependence, the partnerships also yielded substantial development benefits, particularly in the form of economic growth and infrastructure improvements.

The results show that Nigeria should carefully manage its economic ties with China, finding a balance between the need to maintain financial stability and the promotion of local industry competitiveness and growth opportunities. A thorough understanding of the complex dynamics of China-Nigeria economic relations was provided by the case study method. By integrating qualitative and quantitative data, the study offered a thorough grasp of the benefits and challenges of this bilateral partnership and significantly advanced the discussion of global economic growth and cooperation.

Trade Volumes Between Nigeria And China

Figure 2: Pie chart representing the trade volumes between Nigeria and China in 2000 and 2020.

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) (2020)

A pie chart illustrates the volume of trade between China and Nigeria between 2000 and 2020. The significant growth in commerce over the past 20 years is demonstrated by the trade volume, which tenfold increased from $2 billion in 2000 to $20 billion in 2020.

The statistical analysis looked at trade volumes, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and how these affected Nigeria’s GDP. Trend analysis, descriptive statistics, and inferential statistics were used to analyse the data to identify correlations and causes.

1. Trade Volumes

Trade between China and Nigeria has increased noticeably over the last 20 years. In 2000, trade was valued at almost $2 billion. By 2020, this amount had grown tenfold to almost $20 billion. It was estimated that the two nations’ trade volume would increase at an average annual rate of roughly 12.6%.

1. Foreign Direct Investment

Chinese foreign direct investment has also increased significantly in Nigeria. China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nigeria grew from a small amount in 2000 to about $3 billion by 2020. The construction, oil and gas, and manufacturing sectors saw especially significant growth. The data shows that China accounted for almost 20% of all foreign direct investment inflows into Nigeria during this time.

1. Impact on GDP

The impact of Chinese economic activity on Nigeria’s GDP was investigated using regression analysis. The results demonstrated a strong correlation between Nigeria’s GDP growth and Chinese foreign direct investment. More precisely, for every 1% increase in Chinese FDI, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 0.5%. This study suggests that Chinese investments have probably had a major impact on Nigeria’s economic growth.

Nigeria’s Growth Agenda: Industrialisation Strategies, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Sustainability and Debt

Nigeria’s aim to diversify its economy away from reliance on oil and join international value chains has greatly influenced its approach to industrialisation. In order to build a stronger industrial base, recent strategies placed a strong emphasis on manufacturing incentives, special economic zones, and infrastructure development (Ajakaiye & Ncube, 2019). Progress has been uneven, though, with long-term industrial transformation hampered by infrastructure gaps and a lack of coherence in policy. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is seen in this context as a key instrument for raising Nigeria’s industrial competitiveness.

Nigeria intends to increase regional trade flows, scale production, and draw investment into export-oriented industries by utilising the AfCFTA (Ogunleye, 2021). However, sustainability issues continue to exist since insufficient logistics, tariffs, and inconsistent regulations could prevent the agreement’s full benefits from materialising (UNCTAD, 2022). The dynamics of debt make Nigeria’s industrialisation process even more difficult. Concerns regarding long-term economic sovereignty and fiscal sustainability are raised by an excessive reliance on external borrowing, particularly Chinese credit facilities (Onyekwena & Ekeruche, 2019; World Bank, 2023).

Critical infrastructure has been funded by such debt, but the cost of repayment may limit the amount of money available for industrial policy initiatives. In order to ensure alignment with sustainable growth objectives, it is crucial to evaluate Chinese foreign direct investment by placing its effects within Nigeria’s larger strategies for industrialisation, AfCFTA integration, and debt management (IMF, 2024).

Nigeria’s Economic Growth and the Effect of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Mixed results were found when Nigerian policymakers and local businesses were interviewed about the effects of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the country’s economic growth. According to a senior official at the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Investment, “Chinese FDI has significantly contributed to infrastructure development, particularly in railways, power projects, and road networks, aligning with Nigeria’s industrialisation objectives.”  However, concerns regarding the sustainability of such investments have been raised by Nigeria’s mounting debt load and the absence of technology transfer to domestic industries (Okafor, 2020).

Local companies, especially those in the manufacturing and textile sectors, expressed concerns about the influx of cheaper Chinese imports. A manager at a Lagos textile company observed, “While Chinese capital had created jobs in construction and retail, domestic manufacturers were being displaced, leading to reduced competitiveness and the closure of small firms.” These perspectives draw attention to a paradox: Chinese FDI supports macroeconomic expansion while simultaneously undermining domestic manufacturing sectors, claim Eze and Ugochukwu (2022).

According to studies, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) increases Nigeria’s GDP growth, especially through improving trade volumes and infrastructure (Oni, 2021; Adegbite, 2023). The advantages are not equally distributed, though, as long-term gains are diminished by structural flaws in strategic management. According to this, Nigeria runs the risk of dependency rather than long-term economic transformation in the absence of more robust policies that support local capacity building, technology transfer, and industrial diversification (Oladipo, 2019; Adebayo, 2024).

Technology and Skills Transfer: Enhancing Benefits with R&D and Local Content

Transferring technology and skills has become a crucial component of Nigeria’s efforts to optimise the advantages of Chinese FDI. According to empirical data, Nigeria’s industrial base has grown as a result of Chinese investments, but local capacity development has not progressed as much as it could because local content laws are not strictly enforced and there is little investment in domestic R&D (Egbetokun & Akinwale, 2021). According to strategic management viewpoints, technology transfer works best when host nations put in place structures that encourage collaboration, information exchange, and training initiatives for domestic employees (Okorie et al., 2022).

However, Nigeria’s current strategy has primarily placed more emphasis on building infrastructure than on developing sustainable skills, which has led to dependency rather than innovation. This disparity can be closed by bolstering local content laws and providing incentives for Chinese companies to engage in cooperative R&D with Nigerian institutions (Oladipo, 2023). Additionally, Nigerian companies would be able to adapt and internalise transferred technologies through focused capacity-building initiatives in digital and manufacturing technologies, increasing their competitiveness and productivity (Adetunji & Akinola, 2024). In order to ensure that technology and skills transfer significantly contribute to long-term economic growth, strategic management thus emphasises the necessity for Nigeria to match FDI inflows with knowledge-based development policies.

COVID-19 Disruptions, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Projects, and Changing Foreign Direct Investment Trends in Nigeria

Nigeria’s infrastructure development trajectory has been influenced by Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, according to empirical evidence, especially in the transportation, energy, and construction sectors. However, these projects’ immediate economic impact was limited due to the COVID-19 outbreak, which caused supply chain delays, workforce shortages, and decreased capital inflows (Zeng, 2020; Onyekwena & Ekeruche, 2021). Additionally, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) into Africa changed from extractive industries to more resilient sectors like digital technology, logistics, and healthcare as a result of the pandemic (UNCTAD, 2022). This reorientation highlighted opportunities as well as challenges for Nigeria.

China’s flexible investment strategies are evident in the emergence of new investment opportunities in digital connectivity and e-commerce, even as infrastructure financing under the BRI slowed (Zhang & Alon, 2022). The World Bank (2023) reports that while Nigeria’s dependence on Chinese foreign direct investment made it susceptible to external shocks, diversification into technology-driven industries made it resilient to longer-lasting economic downturns. This change illustrates how strategic FDI management must strike a balance between short-term infrastructure improvements and long-term sectoral diversification. As a result, COVID-19 caused Chinese investment in Nigeria to be reevaluated, highlighting the significance of flexibility in maximising long-term financial gains (Akinola, 2024).

Comparative Perspectives on the Impact of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment from Other African Countries

Nigeria’s experience with Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) is both unique and representative of larger continental trends, according to a comparison with other African economies. Chinese investments in Ethiopia have mostly gone towards infrastructure projects like industrial parks and railroads, which directly connect FDI to job creation and industrialisation (World Bank, 2020). Similar to this, China has been heavily involved in major projects in Kenya, such as the Standard Gauge Railway, which has increased connectivity but also raised debt concerns (Were, 2021).

Although Nigeria also receives a significant amount of Chinese foreign direct investment, the size and scope of these investments vary. Nigeria’s inflows are still disproportionately focused on oil, gas, and transportation infrastructure, in contrast to Ethiopia, which has used Chinese FDI to create manufacturing clusters (Ajakaiye & Ncube, 2022). Additionally, Nigeria continues to struggle with the underutilisation of such assets because of governance issues and inadequate policy frameworks, whereas Kenya’s FDI-driven infrastructure has boosted regional trade (Okafor, 2023). As a result, Nigeria is not an exception but rather a hybrid case: it has infrastructure-driven foreign direct investment (FDI) in common with other African countries, but it faces unique challenges in converting these investments into long-term industrial growth and wider economic diversification (UNCTAD, 2024).

Sectoral Case Study: Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas

The strategic depth of the two countries’ economic ties is demonstrated by China’s foreign direct investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. Through joint ventures, service contracts, and equity acquisitions, Chinese state-owned companies like the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have grown their operations since the early 2000s. Nigeria has benefited from this investment in the form of infrastructure development, technological assistance, and capital inflows, especially in offshore exploration and refining projects. According to empirical research, these businesses support Nigeria’s economic growth trajectory by generating jobs, enhancing local capacity, and increasing export revenue (Oteh & Akinkugbe, 2022).

Nonetheless, issues with inadequate integration of local content policies, environmental hazards, and restricted technology transfer still exist (Oladipo, 2021). According to strategic management viewpoints, Nigeria runs the danger of becoming dependent on outside knowledge and passing up chances for sustainable development in the absence of more robust regulatory frameworks. Thus, Nigeria must strike a balance between attracting foreign investment and long-term industrial policy objectives, as the oil and gas sector underscores both the advantages and disadvantages of Chinese FDI (Okolie, 2023; Ukaegbu, 2024).

Managing the Benefits and Risks of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment

In Nigeria, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) carries both substantial risks and noteworthy rewards. On the plus side, Chinese FDI has improved Nigeria’s economic competitiveness by boosting infrastructure, especially in the areas of energy, telecommunications, and transportation. Additionally, it has facilitated technology transfer, created job opportunities, and deepened Nigeria’s integration into international value chains (Okorie & Agu, 2022). These contributions support the objectives of resource mobilisation and sustainable growth in strategic management.

On the other hand, the dangers are just as significant. Concerns regarding trade imbalances, economic dependency, and the sustainability of debt have been raised by a heavy reliance on Chinese loans and investments (Uche & Olatunji, 2023). According to critics, many projects prioritise Chinese labour and companies, which restricts local participation and jeopardises capacity-building (Eze & Nwankwo, 2020). Furthermore, concerns about long-term financial burdens and exploitative practices have increased due to issues of inadequate regulatory oversight (Obi, 2022). Therefore, even though Chinese FDI helps Nigeria achieve its development goals, strategic management calls for striking a balance between the financial gains and wise policy decisions to reduce related risks. Maximising long-term gains still requires strong institutional frameworks, transparent contract negotiations, and effective local content policies (Adebayo, 2024).

Impacts of Chinese-Funded Projects on the Environment and Society

Analysing the social and environmental effects of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in Nigeria has become crucial to assessing their overall contribution to sustainable economic growth. According to empirical data, infrastructure investments, especially in the areas of energy, roads, and railways, have increased connectivity and decreased transaction costs, but they have also resulted in major environmental externalities like air pollution, soil erosion, and deforestation (Okafor & Igwe, 2021). For example, the loss of biodiversity and the deterioration of natural ecosystems have been connected to extensive construction activities related to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects (Akinola, 2022).

Socially, Chinese-funded projects have produced jobs, particularly in the construction industry and related fields; however, issues with safety procedures, labour standards, and community displacement still exist (Ezeani & Uzochukwu, 2020). Critics contend that some Chinese companies have been able to operate with little adherence to social responsibility and environmental protection due to lax regulatory enforcement (Oluwole, 2023). On the other hand, supporters emphasise how opportunities for skill development and technology transfer have benefited the development of local capacity (Nwachukwu & Adeola, 2021).

To ensure long-term economic sustainability, strategic management must strike a balance between the advantages of expanding infrastructure and the costs of social unrest and environmental deterioration. To protect Nigeria’s developmental interests, policymakers must thus implement more stringent monitoring procedures and incorporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles into FDI agreements (Okorie, 2024).

Thematic Analysis

The study examines how trade, technology transfer, infrastructure, and human capital development are all mutually dependent. Thematic analysis was performed using qualitative data collected through focus groups, interviews, and document analysis. This section examines the findings in the context of earlier studies and provides a comprehensive thematic analysis.

Trade Relations

Trade emerged as a key theme in the study, and many participants cited the significant increase in trade volumes between China and Nigeria. China is now Nigeria’s biggest trading partner and a major source of the country’s total imports, the data shows. According to participants, Chinese goods have surpassed Nigerian products in a number of categories, including electronics and apparel, because they are affordable and easily accessible.

This finding is in line with research that indicates a significant rise in trade between China and Nigeria during the past two decades (Ogunkola, 2020). However, because Nigeria exports primarily raw materials to China and China imports the majority of Nigeria’s finished goods, there have been worries about the trade imbalance. This trading pattern affects Nigeria’s goals of industrial growth and economic diversification.

Infrastructure Development

The respondents emphasised the importance of infrastructure development and acknowledged Chinese investment in Nigeria’s infrastructure on multiple occasions. Renovations to the roads, railroads, and airports were among the major projects that were frequently discussed. Participants concurred that, often with the aid of advantageous loans from the Chinese government, Chinese companies had played a significant role in assisting Nigeria in overcoming its infrastructure shortcomings.

The literature, which emphasises China’s role in reviving Africa’s infrastructure, supports this viewpoint (Brautigam, 2019). Concerns were raised, nevertheless, about the long-term sustainability of these initiatives. Some questioned whether these investments would pay off in the long run, given the debt implications and the quality of the constructed infrastructure. Another cause for concern was the low level of local contractor and workforce participation in these projects, which may have endangered the growth of local capability.

Technology Transfer

Transferring technology was yet another crucial topic. The respondents agreed that Nigeria now has easier access to technology, particularly in the telecommunications and industrial sectors, thanks to Chinese investments. Chinese companies such as ZTE and Huawei are said to have revolutionised Nigeria’s ICT sector. One encouraging development was the rise of Chinese businesses engaged in manufacturing. This conclusion is supported by earlier research that highlights the role Chinese companies play in technology transfer to African countries (Wang, 2021).

Divergent opinions existed, nevertheless, regarding the extent of technology transfer. Some participants thought that the technology being presented was not state-of-the-art and that Nigeria was still more of a consumer than a producer of cutting-edge technologies. The literature raises similar concerns, arguing that while technology transfer does occur, it typically impacts lower-end technologies the most (Chen, 2020).

Human Capital Development

The topic of human capital development was frequently discussed, and respondents concurred that Chinese companies provide chances for education and training. Professional education programs and scholarships for Nigerian students to study in China were frequently discussed. Participants thought the opportunities would help them become more knowledgeable and skilled.

Studies indicate that learning experiences are essential for fostering interpersonal understanding and competence (Kragelund, 2017). Others, however, questioned the motivations behind these initiatives and conjectured that China might be utilising them to exert soft power and influence over Nigeria. Furthermore, some attendees questioned the training’s relevance, saying that it wasn’t always tailored to Nigeria’s particular needs.

CONCLUSION

China-Nigeria economic cooperation research reveals a complex interplay between advantages and disadvantages. Over the last 20 years, the two countries’ relationship has improved dramatically, with trade increasing from $2 billion in 2000 to over $20 billion in 2020. The massive trade imbalance that results from Nigeria exporting raw materials and importing completed goods jeopardises the nation’s ambitions for economic diversification and industrialisation.

China has made significant investments in Nigeria’s transport infrastructure, including its roads, trains, and airports, despite persistent worries about sustainability and local participation. Technology transfers have also had both positive and negative effects; while Chinese investments have enhanced ICT, Nigeria is now dependent on less advanced technologies. Furthermore, the development of human capital raised concerns about China’s goals and how well they matched Nigeria’s needs, even though training and scholarships were advantageous. Strategic policies are needed to guarantee sustainable and inclusive growth in this relationship.

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Based on the Nigeria-China relationship study, which concentrated on partnerships and economic growth, strategic policies and sustainable development guidelines should be adopted in key sectors to promote equitable economic relations. To help the bilateral relationship succeed in the long run, five policy recommendations were developed.

1. Nigeria must first establish a thorough framework for economic cooperation that emphasises equitable, transparent, and mutually beneficial financial gain sharing. This system would guarantee equitable compensation and remove concerns about exploitation.
2. In an effort to improve indigenous knowledge and skills and lessen dependency on outside experts, Nigeria was counselled to give priority to capacity-building projects.
3. The study recommended expanding economic ties outside of conventional industries like oil and gas and looking at collaborations in the fields of technology, manufacturing, and renewable energy.
4. All bilateral projects should prioritise environmental sustainability, and Chinese investors should be subject to stringent environmental regulations.
5. Finally, it was emphasised that to close Nigeria’s infrastructure gaps and promote economic growth, significant investments in digital, energy, and transportation infrastructure are required. 

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